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Old 10-07-2018, 12:47 PM   #301
Garick
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Re: 1/2 - The old argument of why raise so much...

OK, we have a thread on what GTO is and isn't. Let's not argue it here.
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Old 10-07-2018, 01:50 PM   #302
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Re: 1/2 - The old argument of why raise so much...

It should be pretty intuitive that as 3bet and 4bet frequencies increase (and therefore used as a proxy for how “tough” your game is) the size of your opens need to decrease.
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Old 10-07-2018, 06:20 PM   #303
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Re: 1/2 - The old argument of why raise so much...

If there is a limper then you can't be opening.
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Old 10-08-2018, 08:12 AM   #304
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Re: 1/2 - The old argument of why raise so much...

Clearly, if your opponents are awful and will call 10BB raises with 94o, you want to play a strong linear range and value bet them to death. In my experience at $1/$2 (I have played about 200 hours over the last year for research purposes), most players do not call 10BB raises with 94o. They instead only call with "decent" hands.

If you instead make a pot-sized raise or perhaps a touch larger, they will call with all sorts of junk, giving you a large amount of preflop equity. You will lose the pot more often as more people see the flop, but that is fine because you have a substantial amount of equity and your opponents will often play poorly after the flop.

One play that worked especially well for me was making a pot sized raise with a strong linear range (resulting in lots of calls) while making a much larger raise to about 1.7x pot with my junk when facing ranges I thought to be weak and wide (resulting in lots of folds).

If your opponents are legitimately terrible, you should adjust significantly to take advantage of their mistakes. The main problem with this idea is that many small stakes players think they are learning a strong default strategy that they can apply as they move up in stakes. When moving up, it is important to figure out what the winners are doing to beat the games you want to move to as well as what to do to beat those winners. Many players figure out how to beat the weak players but forget that the winners are often the losers at the higher stakes.

I strive to teach my students how to succeed long-term, not how to beat specifically the awful players at the tiny stakes. This is done by teaching them to play fundamentally sound and then how to adjust to the situations they are likely to encounter.
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Old 10-08-2018, 09:22 AM   #305
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Re: Standard Open Raise at $1/$2, Jonathan Little vs The World

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The thing about GTO play is that it isn't designed to maximize our profits, it's about minimizing the way hero can be exploited. If everybody is playing something something close to GTO then GTO will be the most profitable way to play because the GTO player makes no mistakes but will take advantage of some mistakes made by opponents.

If opponents are not playing anything close to GTO then there are other strategies that can exploit them far better.
To give a concrete example take tic-tac-toe. There is a pretty simple GTO strategy that insures neither player ever wins. However, if you know your opponent is actually a total fish that likes top right and will always select the top right square that hasn't been selected yet you can devise a strategy that will always win. If you select the top left square and work down you always win no matter if you go first or second because your opponent will waste a turn.

Poker is vastly more complicated and this perennial argument really is about just how far it's best to wander off GTO to maximize profits. Because opponents are using various different strategies there isn't a single perfect answer. But at low stakes it's no place close to GTO.
I argue that GTO will work better at low stakes than high stakes because those players make vastly more mistakes, so GTO play should work better there.

the question is what is the GTO raise size for 1/2 live. Surely it's not 3x because we have to overcome the rake. Online, where the rake is much smaller, 3x is sufficient. If there were no rake, 2.5x would probably be standard (my own calculations show that 2.25x is possibly correct).

I used to raise to 9 or 10 depending on my position and the strength of my hand. I think anything more than that is a leak. You can be exploited. It doesn't mean you will be exploited but anything other than a "standard" sizing is exploitable. Obviously being exploitable is not necessarily losing. You actually have to play exploitably in some spots to win money in the long run but the math is the math

Last edited by KT_Purple; 10-08-2018 at 09:32 AM.
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Old 10-08-2018, 09:36 AM   #306
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Re: Standard Open Raise at $1/$2, Jonathan Little vs The World

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I argue that GTO will work better at low stakes than high stakes because those players make vastly more mistakes, so GTO play should work better there.

the question is what is the GTO raise size for 1/2 live. Surely it's not 3x because we have to overcome the rake. Online, where the rake is much smaller, 3x is sufficient. If there were no rake, 2.5x would probably be standard (my own calculations show that 2.25x is possibly correct).

I used to raise to 9 or 10 depending on my position. I think anything more than that is a leak. You can be exploited. It doesn't mean you will be exploited but anything other than a "standard" sizing is exploitable. Obviously being exploitable is not necessarily losing. You actually have to play exploitably in some spots to win money in the long run but the math is the math
No way that's true. There's just no way.

Low stakes players make a lot bigger mistakes when you do things intentionally to exploit them and their weaknesses than if you play a robotic GTO style. I have no doubt a good GTO player will win at low stakes but an exploitive player with good reads will do much better.
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Old 10-08-2018, 09:42 AM   #307
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Re: Standard Open Raise at $1/$2, Jonathan Little vs The World

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No way that's true. There's just no way.

Low stakes players make a lot bigger mistakes when you do things intentionally to exploit them and their weaknesses than if you play a robotic GTO style. I have no doubt a good GTO player will win at low stakes but an exploitive player with good reads will do much better.
maybe but pre-flop isn't the place to deviate imo, if you want to exploit bad players you can adjust your frequencies but i don't think you should adjust your raise sizes. I could be wrong

Last edited by KT_Purple; 10-08-2018 at 09:50 AM.
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Old 10-08-2018, 10:06 AM   #308
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1/2 - The old argument of why raise so much...

If J Little is recommending a more GTOish 3.5x open, he needs to explain the ranges that accompany the RFI and for what seats. Opening a standard UTG range to 3x against the 1/2 population with no adjustment of range will result in 4 callers and cards-up post flop play.

I do think there is a limit for practical purposes of UTG RFI, of about 7x. Beyond this and the SPR gets skewed too much. However, this is just in theory, I have no live play to back up this opinion.

Just saying that Little needs to explain his stuff more than just saying the top players open for 3x.
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Old 10-08-2018, 10:15 AM   #309
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Re: Standard Open Raise at $1/$2, Jonathan Little vs The World

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maybe but pre-flop isn't the place to deviate imo, if you want to exploit bad players you can adjust your frequencies but i don't think you should adjust your raise sizes. I could be wrong
I dont think you should adjust your raise sizes either. What I'm saying is at smaller stakes, raising to 3x is less than optimal.
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Old 10-08-2018, 10:29 AM   #310
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Re: 1/2 - The old argument of why raise so much...

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Ive played plenty of 1/2 and 1/3 at Borgata, Md Live, and most notably (and with my total crusher status) at MGM National Harbor, which is a 1/3/$500 max buyin.

Talking specifically about the button: At 1/3/500, i go maybe 12 if folded to me, 15 with 1 limper, otherwise 20-25 pre from the button dependng on many factors, and I would say that limped or folded to me, i probably raised this amount 70% of the time? of course very table dependent. Even one aware opponent would cause me to play much more normal poker. The 30% of folds isnt the bottom 30% of my range its the 30% worst situations, typically when the one dude who doesnt suck postflop limped, or when im playing some normal 25-35% range because an aware opponent is in the blinds. but I would say if all the limpers/blinds were bad, I would raise pre from the button literally 100%, bet flop 95% ignoring when they give off one of their comically obvious tells.

3 bets are KK+ so ~55:1 odds I dont get C bet = -$0.50 EV of getting 3 bet. Although Id even say thats probably inaccurate, because id say maybe 1 in 3 times, they just double my bet to $40 or $50 or whatever, and I call with low cards. The funniest is KK, cuz if an A comes and they freeze up and then check, you know its KK and you just fire till they fold.

consider:

V1, he is an ABC badreg, Ive seen him raise with 88 and/or AJ (if he does one he prolly does both) I see him limp plenty and fold his limps plenty. he limps for $3, I make it $22. Whats his range? its the top of his capped range. Its literally just trouble hands, low PPs, and some rare SCs. youre looking at hands along the lines of KJ, AT A9 A8 KT QT QJ JT 66 55 44. For the most part their range hits mostly medium made hands, which he will overplay, so basically I bet the flop, he plays fit or fold, and if he hit his pair, if I have air, I bet scare cards and take it away anyway.

V2, worst player at the table, he raises a lot, limps a lot, almost never folds. Guess what, after I blow everyone else out of the hand with my huge raise, im playing a lot with this clown, and im blowing him off his no pairs otf, and then getting 2 or 3 streets from as weak as middle pair when I hit much of anything. Best part is he has nothing but junk in his insanely capped range, so my 100% range is actually likely AHEAD of his.

V3, old man who raises some. He is the absolute best limper, he calls my big raise with 0% of his limping range, and jokes “no sir, that was a $3 hand, not a penny more!” its literally a $3 donation every time he gets in the pot. This dude pays the rake for me.

V4, guy who is actually good (by 1/3 standards), raises tight, limps reasonably tight, may well have noticed you raising the button so often and like limped his aces or some crap, yeah just fold if this guy limps in, or raise small and play normalsauce poker. Only takes one guy to ruin the fun,

So basically all day I play rake free poker in position to either a total clown or a guy who plays face up poker and has a comically narrow capped range. You get to pick your opponent! Dont do it against good people! that one guy who can exploit it already folded!

Beyond that, as far as my previously mentioned obvious tells, tons of 1/3 players give away the worst “looking at chips when they hit” tells and timing tells ever. They play KJ and the flop hits their king, and they dont know what they are supposed to do, they are daydreaming about the waitress and look down and are like oh **** thats my card, look over at their chips, all of a sudden express interest in the poker game they have up to that point been entirely uninterested in, and then look over at me, and are like “oh yeah that guy raised, (and, i mean maybe because I am so over the top with my ranges and betting, the guy will even manage to think “he bets every damn time”), i better check. And of course I check back, save myself a C bet, maybe give myself a draw.

Someone is just gonna have to meet up with me and see it in action haha.

I moved up to 2/5 (and now some 5/10) 6-9 months ago or so, and I dont do this crap at those stakes except for the occasional time it comes up. Like, of course i fold my button plenty, and I probably 4x or 5x mostly, some 3x, but when the occasional opportunity arises when the blinds are passive and multiple fish limped in, Ill pop it for maybe 6x-8x with a 100% range.
This is a really good post on exploitative play. Way more useful than a lot of nitty PF advice you see here.
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Old 10-08-2018, 10:33 AM   #311
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Re: 1/2 - The old argument of why raise so much...

I dont know where you dug that up from but its spot on.
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Old 10-08-2018, 10:52 AM   #312
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Re: Standard Open Raise at $1/$2, Jonathan Little vs The World

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I dont think you should adjust your raise sizes either. What I'm saying is at smaller stakes, raising to 3x is less than optimal.
only because of the rake tho, the rake is exploiting you so you have to be more exploitable and raise to about 5x at 1/2. I'm playing timed rake at 5/10 and I'm going 30 or 35 pre as is most of the competition. The raise size should settle on a standard amount because those not obeying the math should eventually lose

sizing is such a big issue with most players, back in the day of online poker I was printing money raising to 2.5x or 3x when everyone else was doing 4-5x. That ended pretty abruptly tho. There is a demarcation point in my profit graphs correlating exactly to when everyone else started adjusting their opens downward to 3x. Sad day for me
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Old 10-08-2018, 11:29 AM   #313
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Re: 1/2 - The old argument of why raise so much...

Rake is always a bigger factor at smaller stakes, but Id say raising more BBs at lower stakes works better more due to the fact that people are lower stakes are much more likely to call raises with things like KT and A8. And a raise to 7BBs instead of 3.5BBs doesnt stop them from doing it.
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Old 10-09-2018, 12:43 AM   #314
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Re: 1/2 - The old argument of why raise so much...

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Rake is always a bigger factor at smaller stakes, but Id say raising more BBs at lower stakes works better more due to the fact that people are lower stakes are much more likely to call raises with things like KT and A8. And a raise to 7BBs instead of 3.5BBs doesnt stop them from doing it.
can't say you are wrong, the great debate between GTO and exploitable play will rage on in Doug Polk videos til the end of time. if your raise size doesn't effect their calling range than obviously it is correct to raise more but I don't know if people are still as bad as they were 6 years ago. Maybe they are
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Old 10-09-2018, 04:21 AM   #315
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Re: 1/2 - The old argument of why raise so much...

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can't say you are wrong, the great debate between GTO and exploitable play will rage on in Doug Polk videos til the end of time. if your raise size doesn't effect their calling range than obviously it is correct to raise more but I don't know if people are still as bad as they were 6 years ago. Maybe they are


They are
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Old 12-30-2018, 01:35 AM   #316
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Re: 1/2 - The old argument of why raise so much...

Great thread with some awesome posts in there. Read from beginning. Thanks, Garick for bringing it back again and again.
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Old 02-19-2019, 09:14 AM   #317
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Re: 1/2 - The old argument of why raise so much...

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Ehh not to get off topic here but I think the same game 10 years from now is going to be quite a bit tougher. Just think about how easy the game was 10 years ago compared to now. 2002 was what, the Chris Moneymaker days? Way different game than it is today. What about 10 years prior to 2002, so 1992? Most people in the WSOP, the biggest and largest tournament there is, were loose passives and aggressive styles were taking down those titles. So 10 years from now, in the "information age"...that's going to be a whole new generation of internet wannabe pros. Half the table is going to know about range merging and 3 betting light and polarized ranges. Anyways just my 2 cents.
It's now ten years later and I liked the thread so figured I'd reply. Your predictions are mostly true. Ten years ago llsnl was much softer than today. The internet wannabe pros are still few and far between but folks have a general idea of what leaks are common and how to plug some of them. Players intuitively get a lot more concepts even though few of them could describe their thinking like OL players. LLSNL will always be very beatable though...
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