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1/2 Nut flush draw into big pot 1/2 Nut flush draw into big pot

06-21-2014 , 12:56 AM
This is slightly butchered but this is fairly close to the hand.

Hero- $160- Young white guy. Decent player. Very tight. Down $50 for the night.
V1- $240- 90 y/o man.
V2 LP- $28

Hero- MP- A J
V1- UTG- raise to $12
Hero- Call
V2- Shove $28 all in
Hero calls, V1 calls

Pot: ($90- estimate.. not exact)
Flop: K 9 7
V1 opens $75

I am fairly positive he has 99, KK or AK at this point. Maybe AA but I think he would have reraised me preflop.

I just hit quad 8's two hands before this so I am expecting the high hand payout. I would normally fold this spot here but I figure I have outs. I figure I am good roughly 1/3 of the time here. If I hit the flush I expect to take the rest of V1's stack that I can cover. Theoretically he could have something like KQ and I could win with an ace. I could backdoor a straight.

I am betting $75 to win roughly $165. If I get the flush I will be able to get another $60(roughly) from him. If he gets a full house I will get stacked.

I'm pretty sure this is a fold. Theoretically V2 could have something and would take the side pot. I doubt he has anything better than V1 with that opening raise.

What do?

BTW, anyone ever feel awful taking an old mans money? He must have been 90 years old and was a very nice guy. I really didn't want to take his money but I understand that is a part of the game.

Last edited by bm303; 06-21-2014 at 01:08 AM.
1/2 Nut flush draw into big pot Quote
06-21-2014 , 03:10 AM
You're not +EV to call because of stack depth. You'd be committing yourself to call off the rest of your stack on any turn that doesn't pair the board (plus the 9) and losing $27 every time you do on average.

Last edited by Aleksei; 06-21-2014 at 03:38 AM.
1/2 Nut flush draw into big pot Quote
06-21-2014 , 03:22 AM
As for your second question, no. Recreational gambling is either a hobby or an addiction, and gambling addicts would just use their money to buy booze instead if I didn't take it. I'm doing a bloody public service.
1/2 Nut flush draw into big pot Quote
06-21-2014 , 03:38 AM
Easy fold pre with your stack size.

Lol at folding here unless this guy is the biggest nit of all time and even then. If you fold this flop, you definitely should just fold this hand preflop.

As played the chance of him folding is basically 0 but I still ship flop for the small chance he folds and so you don't have to get In spot where you brick turn and have to sigh call the rest when he puts you all in.
1/2 Nut flush draw into big pot Quote
06-21-2014 , 03:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArsenalGunners2
Easy fold pre with your stack size.

As played the chance of him folding is basically 0 but I still ship flop for the small chance he folds and so you don't have to get In spot where you brick turn and have to sigh call the rest when he puts you all in.
Problem is that you'd then have to run out every turn+river, and lose every time V boats up. Also what can he fold here, ever? I'm basically ranging a crusty old nit at KK+/AK when he blasts the pot.

Tbh we have to fold flop I think. We don't have to fold pre necessarily, because he doesn't always bomb into us when we hit, but we have to understand that when a nitty old geezer open raises and calls a 3! he's monster.

Last edited by Aleksei; 06-21-2014 at 03:46 AM.
1/2 Nut flush draw into big pot Quote
06-21-2014 , 08:38 AM
Yup, fold flop sadly. Firing like that into a dry side-pot OTF stinks of AK KK 99 I agree.
1/2 Nut flush draw into big pot Quote
06-21-2014 , 09:16 AM
On the flop if you assume that this is a shove it's 132 to win 354 needing 37.28% equity.
You should have at least that equity:

Board: Kd 9c 7d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.058% 38.06% 00.00% 3391 0.00 { AdJd }
Hand 1: 61.942% 61.94% 00.00% 5519 0.00 { AKs, AKo }
1/2 Nut flush draw into big pot Quote
06-21-2014 , 09:21 AM
^V has KK as well.
1/2 Nut flush draw into big pot Quote
06-21-2014 , 09:35 AM
I am seriously discounting V having AA/KK here. The action was re-opened to him after shorty shoved and hero called. If he has AA/KK, he's bumping it up again pre. He's very likely to have AK. No other description is given of V other than he's older than methusula, but even if you assume OMC, he's not raising 99 pre and OMC is certainly re-raising AA/KK. If he's not just OMC, it puts 99 in his range, but it also puts KQ or TT-QQ in his range.

I'm not saying folding here is bad, but, calling and shoving are probably viable as well. Depends on your variance toleration.
1/2 Nut flush draw into big pot Quote
06-21-2014 , 10:41 AM
Shove pre. I doubt UTG has AA/KK/AK because hed iso us.
1/2 Nut flush draw into big pot Quote
06-21-2014 , 05:38 PM
^OMCs usually don't play AK aggressively. After all, why would they? It's not even a pair!
1/2 Nut flush draw into big pot Quote
06-21-2014 , 07:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aleksei
^OMCs usually don't play AK aggressively. After all, why would they? It's not even a pair!
x2

90 year old guy UTG raising range = AA/KK, he should never have 99 or even AK if he's a true OMC. Fold pre, I wouldn't even call the $12.
1/2 Nut flush draw into big pot Quote
06-21-2014 , 07:50 PM
Umm, call flop bc 20% of your stack is in and you have 9 nut and some potential ace and straight outs too
1/2 Nut flush draw into big pot Quote
06-21-2014 , 07:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wj94
x2

90 year old guy UTG raising range = AA/KK, he should never have 99 or even AK if he's a true OMC. Fold pre, I wouldn't even call the $12.
I think you could if you covered him (20:1 implied), but yeah even that is marginal.
1/2 Nut flush draw into big pot Quote
06-21-2014 , 07:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rm12
Umm, call flop bc 20% of your stack is in and you have 9 nut and some potential ace and straight outs too
Bro, your Ace is dead here.
1/2 Nut flush draw into big pot Quote

      
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