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Originally Posted by kkotov100
My reasoning behind the 1/2 Pot / 50BB turn bet were the following:
1. On the flop, the 1/2 Pot bet seemed extremely weak to me, like it was a standard c-bet with broadway cards that completely missed. Maybe he had a draw, maybe he hit top pair, but it just seemed really weak to me.
i dont really agree with this read but i do agree with the flop call. but where you really spew is on the turn so lets remember this read and look at your turn bet.
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2. He checked the turn which made me think he was scared of the ace, or that his card that he wanted came, but he still wasn't sure he was good. the 1/2 pot bet on the turn was to make sure I don't show any weakness in response to the caution he presented himself with, to try to make him fold kk or any other pairs or even the ace if he had it because this was one of those boards that are likely to be won by the slightly higher aggressor. Mainly, I just wanted to get more money in on the turn so that I could set up a polarizing river situation.
so you think he likely has a broadway hand otf but now you think he could have kk ott for some reason. anyways lets look at the board: 10 j j ace.
10j you lose to. you are ahead of 10q and k10 which probably fold to your bet and you are behind a10 as well. any jack you lose to. kq you lose to and any ace you lose to. kk he might call and might fold we arent sure. so you are betting for value against two hands which cant possibly call you are bluffing against one unlikely holding which may or may not call and you are value cutting yourself against everything else... which is what ended up happening.
also it seems like your reads are a little less than rock solid vs this opponent given that he shows up with a monster here.
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Essentially, the optimal play here was to be aggressive enough that the other player would fold the same hand.
i could see how you came to this conclusion given the outcome but its 100% results oriented. you had 4 outs to win this hand and 2 of them you cant possibly get called when you shove otr. you had 3 outs to chop which you were fortunate enough to hit. if you hadnt hit the king on the river and followed through on your plan to make villain fold (mostly weaker hands fwiw) then you would have gotten stacked. as played even though you hit one of your miracle cards you are still clearly getting no value otr because look at what villain folded. its great you got a fold from the one possible holding you want to get a fold from but it goes to show just how lucky you were otr and just how awful your turn bet was.