In this hand I am going to conceal what I held because I think it will generate better discussion that way. (If a lot of people disagree I will reveal later.)

This hand took place in a 2/5 game a fairly long time ago. It stands out in my memory because at the time I didn't know if I played it right or just got lucky.

The villain in this hand is a semi-reg in this room. My read on him is that he is playing LAG, in the sense that he will splash around for small bets, but I haven't seen him put a "serious" bet in without a real hand. I've already seen him win one big pot against someone who played too loosely against him on the turn/river. He seems to be at least somewhat experienced at poker and has mentioned having played in other places besides this one.

Effective stacks are $2000.

Preflop: folds around to Villain in the CO.

Villain raises to $25, Hero calls on the button, blinds fold.

Flop ($51): T 7 4

Villain bets $40, Hero calls.

Turn ($131): 9

Villain bets $65, Hero raises to $320 (leaving ~1615 behind).

So here are my questions about this point in the hand (all from Hero's perspective--this is not an "I was the villain" thread).

1) With what range do you think it makes sense to call the raise preflop? What range would you be 3betting?

2) With what range do you think it makes sense to call the flop? What kinds of hands would you prefer to raise with instead?

3) With what range do you think it makes to call the turn instead of raise?

4) What is your value raising range on the turn? What hands are you trying to get value from when you raise?

5) What is your bluffing range on the turn? What hands are you trying to fold out if you are bluffing?

6) What do you think about the sizing? (Obviously that might depend on whether this is for value or a bluff, and also on the previous two questions.)

7) What range of hands do you think I should be showing up with here after taking this line?

(Note: I am not asking what you think Villain will put me on. I'm asking what you think I should actually be showing up with.)

Heh, complex question. Ranges can be so wide in this spot, and a lot will be determined by player tendencies.

Value range OTT looks mostly like T9, 97, 86, J8, and 99. Sets mostly raise OTF? Bluffing/semi-bluffing range looks like.... 7hXh, 98, 8cXc, QcJc, 88, 56hh and possibly some other floats. TBH the raise and sizing appears to put A LOT of pressure on villains Tx and over pair range, I think I like it.

I'll probably come back tomorrow and put in some more thoughts, but going to sleep for now.

I don't really belong posting here, since I've never sat at a 2/5 game with such a large stack. But it just so happens that this exactly fits with what I've begun to work on. I just finished Miller's new book and am analyzing continuing ranges on specific boards. Hope you don't mind me working through this hand of yours and posting my work.

With a calling range of:

TT-22
AJs-A6s, KQs-K9s, QJs-76s, QTs-T8s, Q9s
AQo-AJo, KQo

Board T74

This leaves 152 hand combos in your range, about 70% of which you should continue with: ~106 combos

Sets: TT, 77, 44 = 9 combos
TP: AT, KT, QT, JT, T9, T8 = 18 combos
FD: AJ, A9, A8, A6, KQ, KJ, K9, QJ, Q9, J9, 98 = 11 combos
SD not : 98, J9 = 6 combos
PP below TP: 99, 88 = 12 combos
Middle pair: A7s, 87s, 76s = 9 combos
BDFD : AJ, A9, A8, A6, KQ, KJ, K9, QJ, Q9 = 9 combos
High cards: AQo, AJ = 26 combos
=100 combos total

Of those, I'm raising:
77, 44 = 6 combos
BDFD: J9, A8, A6, KQ, KJ, K9, QJ, Q9 = 8 combos
I settled on 6 value to 8 bluff ratio


Board T74 9
81 hand combos in range, should continue with ~70%: ~57 combos

Sets: TT, 99 = 6 combos
Two Pair: T9 = 3 combos
TP: AT, KT, QT, JT, T8 = 15 combos
Pair + SD: J9, 98, 88, 87, 76 = 18 combos
FD or = AJ, A9, A8, A7, A6, KQ, KJ, K9, QJ, Q9 = 11 combos
53 combos total

Of those, I'm raising:
TT, 99, and T9 = 9 combos
76 not = 2 combos
88 = 3 combos
9 value to 5 bluff ratio at the turn

TBH, this method of looking at a hand is so new to me, that I don't really know what to make of the results. Also, my methodology is fairly rudimentary. I'm sure changes would be made with a deeper understanding of the process. Adding combo draws and maybe TT to the flop raising range would be the first spot I would consider.

Wow, that turn raise is really big. Maybe it's just my inexperience playing deep...although, don't get me wrong I've bluff shoved for 300+bbs at 2/5 with a combo flush draw...but the pot was already huge.

This pot is really small. The only way I'm raising this hard on the turn is with a nutty hand. So 99, TT, 86, J8. In terms of bluffs, I will often bluff with JQhh, JQcc, 56hh, etc but not to build a pot THAT BIG. Once again I'd probably only have nutty draws so like A8cc or A8hh.

1. This deep $25 is not a big raise and against a fairly loose villain I'm calling pretty wide. This would be adjusted even further based on my read of villain's opening range here, Any pair, ATs+, AJo+, KTs+, KQo, suited connectors 54+, sometimes calling with suited one gappers and non-suited connectors. I would raise TT+, AQs+, AKo and occasionally raise some smaller pairs and suited connecters.

2. Flop bet I'm calling with sets, any flush draw, any 65, 98, 86 hand, any over pair, any TX. Sometimes with smaller pairs and two over cards, how often depends on villain's c-bet rate. Except for the TX hand, I would raise some of the time with any hand I would always call with. Sets and combo draws I'm using raising. This is a lot more aggressive then I would normally but this deep hero can raise flop, bet turn and still fold.

3. TX and over pairs that want to get to a cheap river. Flush draws, particularly if hero improved to a heart draw on the turn with two over cards. This board is so wet, I'm mostly either folding or raising here.

4. Very villain dependent. If he will double barrel a lot, possibly as light as over pairs, but mostly sets, straights and two pair. With two pair I'm more looking for villain to fold now because this is a very wet board at this point. The target is mostly draws, two pair, TX, over pairs. I expect a competent villain to give up most other hands here and sets/straights probably reraise.

5. Combo and flush draws, rarely with other hands if I get the feeling villain is ready to fold or he double barrels air a lot.

6. Sizing is big, but stacks are deep and with such a wet board I would expect a big bet here. I wouldn't place much significance in the size.

7. Flush and combo draws, sets, straights and two pair mostly. Everything else would be very situational, depending on how often villain barrels turn with air and how he reacts to raises.

So here's a question. Why are we raising our combo draws that include backdoor hearts? If I have 65hh, for example, don't I have good implied odds since Villain wouldn't usually put me on a backdoor draw? And if the goal is to make Villain fold air that has showdown value, why raise 7hXh?

This strikes me as very unusual. Why did you decide that you had to continue with 70% of your range here before you started counting combos you want to continue with?

About the bolded: if the range you're targeting for value is correct, why would you not want action with two pair? Especially because we have position.

Why would you prefer to have a nut draw to raise? Would you actually call the flop with A8hh? And you have limited yourself to only 15-out draws. Why is that?

On the turn I would rather get a fold with two pair because this board is one of the most ridiculously wet boards imaginable. Other then improving to a boat or catching a non-club, non-heart 2 there is nothing on river that hero wants to see. Anything else might have put villain ahead, but with that many draws villain could have missed it will be hard to fold if villain bets into hero. On river hero is probably not going to have any idea where they are in hand, and will probably have trouble getting value. With a set there are more ways hero can improve and more worse hands that can bet or call a bet.

Grunching here.... I think this is a good exercise although I'm kind of nervous my answers will make me look like the noobz.

1) With what range do you think it makes sense to call the raise preflop? What range would you be 3betting? This depends on what hands he's raising with preflop which you really didn't mention. If he doesn't like to play big pots without big hands then I can think of a reason to just punish all of his opens until he fights back. On the flip side if he normally limp/calls and only splashes around in smaller parts I can think of reason to only 3bet him with a tighter range PF.

2) With what range do you think it makes sense to call the flop? What kinds of hands would you prefer to raise with instead? This is really similar to answer #1. If he's afraid to play big pots without big hands then I'd be raising a huge % of my range here. Anything from straights draws, gut shots, flush/backdoor flush draws and overcard. If you don't think he can call 2 big bets without a hand that beats AA then I punish him. If he considers an overpair on this board a "serious" hand then I am probably flatting with all draws planning to bet very large when I hit because he will pay me off.

3) With what range do you think it makes to call the turn instead of raise?Meh. I'm beginning to think we need more info on villain to do this exercise.... I'd probably be flatting with Q10+ and JJ. I'd be raising with anything better than 1 pair her. I'd also be raising with any combo draw at this point planning to bet big when I hit or miss. (IE - A8cc, A9cc, 89cc, K8cc, K9cc, all sets, all 2 pairs and all straights.)

4) What is your value raising range on the turn? What hands are you trying to get value from when you raise? all 2 pair+ Trying to get value from overpairs and flush draws (assuming he calls w/ overpairs)

5) What is your bluffing range on the turn? What hands are you trying to fold out if you are bluffing? probably not bluffing with worse than a pair+straight draw here. Ideally I'd be getting him to fold, if not on the turn then on the river with a big bet (I'd be betting the same with my value hands). I may also turn a made hand into a bluff, which really the only hand I do this with is 10J or 10Q because I don't think we can be good if we face another bed but I do think villain can fold better.

6) What do you think about the sizing? (Obviously that might depend on whether this is for value or a bluff, and also on the previous two questions.) I am fine with sizing with both value bets and bluffs.

7) What range of hands do you think I should be showing up with here after taking this line? Previous answers answer this question



Vernon..... I like the exercise but I think we need more information on the villain in order to give better answers.

Let me try to answer that concern...

He's playing LAG preflop and on the flop. So at the time my read was that his CO opening range is very wide and his flop c-betting range is pretty wide too. What I did not know is how wide his range is for c-betting close to pot. I assumed at the time that that range can include some bluffs but is weighted to value hands.

Similarly, I wasn't exactly sure what to make of the turn sizing. The fact that he bet the turn at all should mean something, right? But the fact that his sizing changed from 4/5 pot to 1/2 pot might mean something else. Maybe that's part of my question in this thread: how often do you think the described villain can be double barreling air? And if he doesn't have air, what kinds of value hands would he bet half-pot with on this wet a board?

It comes from Ed Miller's 'Poker's 1%' book. (I preordered, so I recieved it already) 70% is a rough estimate to move your strategy towards non-exploitable. The idea behind the book is an attractive direction for me to take my game in that it is furthering my math based strategy versus reads or intuition in which I am less adept. I've only read through it once and just started to do the work. And I'm thinking the book is just the tip of the iceberg, although a good place to start. I'm hoping that this will take me to a strategy where a rough understanding and ability to play GTO will serve as the foundation for my game.

I was interested in analyzing your particular hand and posting to be able to compare my results with other's. I guess the comparison would be between (an attempt at) GTO strategy and a TAG with reads strategy. I haven't yet really taken a look at how my analysis and others peoples opinions are matching up. Later on when you are ready, it would be interesting for me to know if and where your actual hand shows up on my analysis.

It's otherwise a very in-depth OP and probably beyond my skill level. Reminds me of multi-point questions Setsy used to post.

Hmmm, a LAG early but we don't know/think he is LAG late?

Against a true LAG, my raising range OTT is only draws/air until he starts to adjust (if ever).

Because of the small bet OTT, and the fact that we are unsure whether or not he can still be considered a LAG at this point, I would probably mix in some of my stronger holding here, adding set/straights to air and draws and any hand I did not want to show down.

To go point by point:

1. Fairly wide but less speculative hands, more top pair type of hands (better starting range). 3 betting nothing.

2. Call flop with my whole range. Raise nothing.

3. Call turn with my midrange hands. Raise air/draws, maaaaaybe stronger made hands.

4. IF I decided on a raise OTT, I would raise sets/straights targeting 2 pair+/overpair ONLY if I was more than 50% sure he has switched to Tagfish mode.

5. Bluffing airballs and semibluffing draws. Note this should work 100% vs him until he adjusts.

6. Sizing sucks, unless we think he has switched to Tagfish mode. Risked too much on a bluff, gets called too little for a value raise. It's ok as a semibluff draw raise.

7. You SHOULD show up 100% with flush draw/BDFD/8x (str8 draws).

Overall, a very odd line, but perhaps we have the odd player to make this line profitable.

Only the Shadow knows....

GRUNCH:

First, I note that we are 400bb deep here.

1) With what range do you think it makes sense to call the raise preflop? What range would you be 3betting?

Calling with a very wide range, but probably capped at [88, AJs-]. The bottom of my calling range here is probably [S2G, 32o+].

3b range [99+, AJ+, KQ]. I may occasionally 3b much lighter, but that's not really my range -- its just me spewing.

2) With what range do you think it makes sense to call the flop? What kinds of hands would you prefer to raise with instead?

The thing is, I'm calling this flop with maybe all my range. Float here planning to bluff or 5-J.

His flop Cbet is pretty big, 4/5 pot, but he probably bets his whole range here.

Most of the time I'm raising with [2p, sets] since we're so deep, but not always. Villain missed this flop alot. I'm not usually raising 65, but I will sometimes.

I do not think I'm raising the flop as a bluff.

3) With what range do you think it makes to call the turn instead of raise?

Probably calling with PP and 1-pair-meh-kicker. Raising or folding everything else.

He's slowed down considerably here on the turn, so I'm happy to call with weak SDV hands.

If I'm raising, some of the time I'm looking for FE.

4) What is your value raising range on the turn? What hands are you trying to get value from when you raise?

Sets, 2p.

5) What is your bluffing range on the turn? What hands are you trying to fold out if you are bluffing?

draws, draws, PP.

I don't expect him to fold 15 out draws or 2p+. But his range is very wide here still. ETA: I should say, he still has PP in his range here quite a bit, since the 4/5 pot bet OTF. But I don't necessarily think he's going to fold JJ+ to any turn bluff. I am prepared to bluff at the river too, if necessary and as I read it.

6) What do you think about the sizing? (Obviously that might depend on whether this is for value or a bluff, and also on the previous two questions.)

Normally I feel like a 5x raise is FOS. However, again, if we have history here (reg vs semi-reg) then the sizing may be fine for value.

Given how deep we are, we should have been raising "sometimes" OTF with our flopped value hands.

I probably would have gone with $265, and I think the turn raise can be very close in sizing for both value and bluffing. It seems like Hero is a reg and Villain is a semi-reg, so we should consider balance in our play here.


7) What range of hands do you think I should be showing up with here after taking this line?

(Note: I am not asking what you think Villain will put me on. I'm asking what you think I should actually be showing up with.)

Cannot really answer the question. You could be bluffing or not. Your range should still be pretty wide.

Having said that I would discount [TT, 77, 44] since usually I would expect a raise OTF due to stacks.

Grunch. Pretty well thought out post and interesting question. Will need to return later with answers when I've got more time.

Yes. Call that flop all day with A8hh. When I call flop my range is mainly clubs right? So if a club comes then I'm probably winning the pot. If backdoor hearts come it is difficult for villain to fold a real hand because my line will look super bluffy. We play the entire hand in position vs villain which is nice.


As I stated, I would raise with a wide range of hands but personally I am not interested in playing for stacks 400 bbs deep with a non-nutty hand vs an opponent when I haven't narrowed down his range. It would be a shame to raise a hand like QJcc large on the turn, a club come, and then get stacked don't you think...but perhaps there is a case for raising large with those draws considering we are in position.

As for 15-out draws, I just didn't think our equity would be that great with other nutty draws. Also, with an ace high flush draw we actually have some showdown value against his calling range....and I'm banking that villain's calling range includes a lot of flush draws since we are repping set+ which is great news if we have the nut flush draw.

1) With what range do you think it makes sense to call the raise preflop? What range would you be 3betting?

I'm flatting probably about the top 23-20% of hands, excluding the top 6%. I'm 3-betting pre flop probably around 9% of the time, as a bluff fairly frequently since it's a good 3-bet light spot. For value, I'm 3betting the top 6% of hands. For bluffs, I'm choosing hands like K4s, Q8s, hands that are not in my flatting range.

2) With what range do you think it makes sense to call the flop? What kinds of hands would you prefer to raise with instead?

At least calling with pair of 4s or better any draw including inside straight draws. Also calling with total floats a non-zero % of the time. I prefer raising with a good 10-X and probably 88 and 99, sometimes draws. I suspect the 10-X, 88/99 group is where I differ from most posters. The way I see it, I want to raise to protect against a likely 6 out draw, which is 24% total to win. In other words, a pair of tens is likely best but vulnerable, so I'm raising for protection.

3) With what range do you think it makes to call the turn instead of raise?

Calling with any ten or A7. It does not make much sense to raise these.

4) What is your value raising range on the turn? What hands are you trying to get value from when you raise?

2 pair +, trying to get value from an overpair.

5) What is your bluffing range on the turn? What hands are you trying to fold out if you are bluffing?

I'm not bluffing too often, but if I am, I am hoping he gives us credit for a monster and folds an overpair.

6) What do you think about the sizing? (Obviously that might depend on whether this is for value or a bluff, and also on the previous two questions.)

Sizing is good.

7) What range of hands do you think I should be showing up with here after taking this line?

As I would not be bluffing very often on the turn, I think you should be showing up with a slow played AA-KK, sets, 2 pair, and maybe a monster combo draw.

subbing to semi-grunch and review later. Looks interesting.

1. the players in the blinds will affect my 3b range here, but assuming they aren't really horrible or are just folding a lot probably something like TT+/AJs+(66 combos) and also like 46s+/A2-5s(48 combos) for a total of like ~9%3b. im also assuming V is opening around 30% and is calling 3b pretty wide here, and also not 4b a lot

flat 22-99 ATo+/9To+/45s+ the rest of Axs and some suited two gappers like T7s+

2. i want to raise this flop a decent amount since were so deep and it should be comparatively better for our range than his. probably like 44/77/KT+ for value with a mix of gutshots, 4x, oesd and a few fds that mostly are nfd w/o 2 overs, and combos. id want about a 2:1 bluff:value ratio w/ gutters/4x making up about half the bluffs.

flat the flop with the rest of T7s/88/99 Tx, 7x, the other oesd/fds/the rest of the gutters, and probably float with backdoor fds that have 2 overs, fold the rest.

3/4. i think id have a smaller turn raise range, probably something like straights/99/all 2ps and all the gutters i now have as well as all 56s combos (which go down in value on this turn i believe). likely flatting almost all of my remaining flushdraws (including backdoors), although im not super sure this turn raise range is good because i think it leaves the flat range kinda weak so were gonna have trouble bluffing river on a lot of non flush cards

5. being this deep hes probably going to have to fold almost all 1p hands to our turn raise if hes sane (esp to the raise size). i think his turn betting range should be relatively polarized here actually, and it might be a mistake for him to continue betting for thin value with 1p hands. if he knows this it makes raising the turn a lot less appealing generally, but i expect a lot of players to b/f a bunch of 1p hands, or do something like b/c fds.

6. sizing is too big i think, id probably choose something closer to ~3/4 pot, maybe 250 total. you should have the same raise size with your whole range, i dont think you want to split it into different sizes here.

7. i personally favor raising a bunch of 2p+ and weaker draws (like gutters/bad oesd), and maybe throw in some lower fds to round it out. could be convinced that we should have more strong draws, if he is likely to flat our raise a lot then check the riv, this is probably a good idea so we can cover more runouts easily than with the weak draws.

You don't want to get a fold with 2pr, you want to get value with 2pr, DUCY.

If your opponent folds his equity incorrectly then that's just an additional benefit of getting value.

I was going to answer the first few questions regarding preflop/flop ranges but I think that's been discussed well enough so far. Turn is interesting though.

A couple of points:

1) We (readers) have no idea of V's read on hero/if you've been playing tag/lag.
2) From your description it seems he might have an idea of his own image, and that he's aware he doesn't "mess around" with big bets but splashes a lot in smaller pots. I say this because if he thinks you're playing back at him, he might find a reason to call weaker than he normally would (or maybe I'm stretching it lol).

Your raise is so large, my first thought is that you're still drawing and your hand needs to improve. IMO you know that V knows that he is "supposed to" throw away his OP/1P hands here because calling will most likely mean a huge bet on the river. With that in mind I probably range you largely towards combo draws, i.e. P+FDs, P+SDs, S+FDs etc. But if you want to get into levels, you could be sizing it so big to make it look like you're drawing when you actually have a made hand (sets/2P/straights), which sets the hand up better for the river.

I feel you're trying to fold one pair and weak two pair hands with your bluffs, although I think anything stronger than an overpair still calls one street.

I raise turn for value with 99/TT/77/44/J8/86, and probably T9 (less likely you have a set from the flop because you'd likely try to build a pot, but still possible).

We're trying to get value from OPs, 2p, or worse sets/straights (cooler if he is already ahead of us). I call turn with weak 2p sometimes to bluff-catch river, with a lot of weaker draws (like 98o/T8), and with some of my stronger draws. I noticed someone mentioned flatting XhXh ott because we're more likely to get paid off if hearts hit and I feel that's a valid point, but raising does put us in the drivers seat as well. It also allows us to rep both hearts and clubs on the river.

Interesting that in question 6) you feel there could be a difference in bluff size and value size. This brings up a cool issue with balance (although I guess if we're playing live against non-regs it's not so much of a problem).

Again, tough to range you without knowing your play style at all. At the end of the day, I feel you're going to size your raise smaller for value, so I feel you have a lot of hands with "potential" in this spot.

Just curious why you would raise AA/KK for value on the turn? IMO if I'm flatting AA/KK pre or on the flop, I'm probably going to call down in position for the rest of the hand. If we were 100BB deep maybe, but it's just not worth committing 400BB unless it's preflop (especially on such a drawy board which is very likely to have hit our opponent). I think if we raise the turn we're essentially turning our hand into a bluff which will fold out the OPs we beat and get called by all V's strong hands.

1) Depends on his opening range in that position, reads on players in the blinds, how wide/tight we would expect him to defend a 3bet vs us here, and if he does defend 3bets wide how will he play that wide range postflop?

2) If he's not a station vs. our raise (worse than Tx) I would be bluff raising this board with a pretty wide range as this board will usually run out bad for his range if he does call. Maybe just call 7x+ and bluff raise something like FDs, OESDs, gutshots, strong overs(AJ, KQ, ect.), naked A with the intention of firing clubs on turn with all of these hands if he calls. Raise for value with 2p+ and AT/KT if we have a read he would get sticky with worse here. If he's stationy then the adjustment would be to tighten up our bluffing range to the stronger part of that range so FDs/OESDs and widen our value range to QT+/maybe JT if he bet/calls 7x.

Don't have time to finish the rest at the moment...

You're right, actually I change my mind and would not raise AA/KK. It's tough for worse to call, except good draws and maybe QQ.

You should not even have KK+ in your range OTT as played.

You should be 3b 100% preflop with KK+ (and I would say much wider too).

I almost totally agree. A good situation to not 3-bet would be extremely loose, bad players in the blinds behind us with fairly short stacks. Other than that situation, yes we should 3-bet 100% of the time.

And I read that question as "disregarding how you got to the turn, if you're at the turn what hands do you raise here?"

Don't do this... its a very bad habit to get into. Very bad to ignore action on earlier streets when trying to figure out action on later streets.

If you want to keep certain hands in someones range because of some sort of specific info or game plan or history or something, then fine. What this means is you have to reconfigure your range estimate entirely though. E.g. if you're slowplaying AA in this HH, then what other hands do you need to add in or subtract out of your range (I would say, mostly like you need to remove hands from your range in this case)?

And as an aside, not 3b'ing preflop with super premium hands is incorrect adjustment. Correct adjustment means you should 3b wider, not pare back your 3b hands. Play 72 like AA, not the other way round.