My opponent is the Villain from this hand that occurred earlier in the session:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...check-1465766/

Cliffs Notes: Super-tight old white guy with questionable hygiene (~$400); much more likely to call a preflop raise than open a pot himself.

I cover. I have been playing my typical tight-aggressive style, mixing in a few preflop raises with suited connectors.

Villain has been at the table with me since it opened (about 4 hours ago). I have gradually built my stack up by picking up small pots and busting two relatively short stacks.

In the hand immediately prior to this one, I raised one limper with 88 and got three callers, including Villain. Flop was AT8, and I took it down with a $40 bet.

The big blind is a regular. She's a white female in her late 50s who plays pretty snug (~200).

9-handed
I open to 10 with 98 in MP, Villain calls in HJ, BB calls.
Flop (31): 8-8-2 rainbow
BB checks, I check, Villain bets 22, BB folds, I call.
Turn (75): 4, 2 clubs
***Villain bets 55 out of turn***
I pause for about 15 seconds and check, Villain's bet stands, I quickly call.
River (185): A
I bet 75, Villain cuts out 75 and hesitates for close to 30 seconds before raising to 175, I ... ?

My quick thoughts:

1) I'm usually c-betting with my big hands, but this board is so innocuous that I thought a bet would most likely induce two folds from these tight opponents.

2) I wasn't quite sure what to do after Villain bet out of turn. I feared a check-raise would scare him off.

3) I think his most likely holding on the flop and turn is an overpair.

4) My plan was to call the turn and bet absolutely any river card. I thought that was likely to get more value than check-raising the turn.

5) I think the ace is a terrible card, because if he does have an overpair, that's probably a scare card for him and he may not pay me off on the river.

6) Then again, he raised, so......

$100 more to win $435 right? I'm probably wrong but I feel like we gotta call. I most likely would have shoved on the turn when that 2nd club came. Flush draws make me paranoid.

But the betting out of turn also makes me wonder if he has 44 and got excited when saw the full house.

For some reason this smells like pockets 2s, 4s, a8s, or maybe aces. Super tight old guys are usually going to have a boat in this situation from my experience. Can't put him on a flush because why would he lead out on a rainbow flop? If he only had trips I think he would most likely call on the end instead of raising, and if he did have trips he could have your kicker beat with a hand like 10 8.

The only hands you're beating are air (which I doubt he has, I wouldn't give him higher than a 20% chance of bluffing, and that's being generous too, the % is probably much lower. Also if he was bluffing I think a ship would be most likely because his raise kind of looks like he wants a call.), and 78 or 68.

If he's a super tight player than most likely he won't be playing those medium type connectors for a raise. You're getting ok odds to call. I don't think it's that much -ev to call unless you know he absolutely never ever bluffs in these situations, which you would really need to know the player well to make that determination.

I would probably fold but I think calling is ok too.

Grunch.

Bet flop... Probably c/r turn.

Do you have any reads on your opponent? As played you only beat a bluff. Villain can reasonably have 22, possibly 44, 8x, A8. A flush seems unlikely at this point, but who knows. But yeah, we kinda need reads here to determine what the best play is. Despite your line being "weak" I don't see many Villains raise here as a bluff...

Edit: oops... I guess ill go read the other thread for reads, but you should probably include them on the same page.

I re-read everything... Fold against the described player. He has like no bluffs in his range. I think you misplayed the hand though. Bet flop, no question.

A couple more thoughts...

In favor of folding: I can't think of a hand worse than mind that he would raise on the river for value, and this guy sure as hell isn't bluffing.

In favor of calling: I feel the strength of my hand is severely underrepresented, given the check/call flop and turn.

Should have bet/folded the river.

It's the second consecutive session where I leveled myself into lighting a $100 bill on fire on the river when there was almost no chance my opponent was betting with worse.

Villain had AA...so nasty. The silly thing is he was probably 100% confident that he was ahead on the flop and turn. Results-oriented obviously, but if I had check-raised the turn, I think I may have ended up losing even more, haha. Maybe not though, because if he goes 55, I make it 160, and he jams, I might find a fold there.

In any event, I made a couple questionable plays, and it sucks to get 2-outed.

Even though there are going to be specific situations such as this one, I dont see the point in betting that dry flop. Unless someone else has a PP that thinks youre Cbetting or decides to float youre not getting any value out of your hand. I would be more likely to bet the flop against loose aggro or maniac type players who may make a play at you but most tight players are just going to fold. I would prefer to have them hit one of their cards on the turn and make something out of the hand. Its a higher risk/higher reward as the turn may complete a set and you may get stacked but thats the chance you take. I wouldve c/raised the turn hoping to gii. The outcome of the hand has no bearing. Even as you stated, he thought he was ahead and you lost an opportunity to stack him if he didnt hit a miracle.

It is generally a mistake to slow play anything less than the nut flush. He would have called you down with any OP, not just AA. My experience is that they'll just fold on the turn, too.

The idea i have in my head these days regarding playing with old nits is to figure out how much they like their hand, and then act accordingly.

The problem OTF is that you don't know yet how much he likes it. I think I agree with the check. We find out he seems to like his hand quite a bit based on his bet sizing, let alone the fact that he bet at all. There are a lot of overpairs in his range, along with some A8 or K8s type hands, and maaaaybe 22 depending on what he likes to play. But a lot more overpairs.

The turn doesn't change anything except to chain him even more tightly to his hand; that flush draw will make him want to protect his hand. You're a far better poker player than I am, but it just seems to me he would almost certainly call a bet OTT. Maybe even a checkraise, given the peculiar circumstances. I know check-raising is usually kind of a donkey move, but that's what I would have done here, because I think he would call it, if I don't bomb it too hard.

The river is a different kettle of fish. He LOVES his hand, in spite of all the 8's and aces and clubs. I hope someday to be wise enough to fold in this situation, which is easy enough to see sitting at my desk, and hard to see in the heat of the moment.

Although I will say, if I had put some money in while good on the turn, and I was in "I gots to know" mode, I might feel a little better about check/calling the river, figuring the old man probably isn't going to bomb it too hard. As opposed to betting into his monster.

It's a good rule of thumb. This was a very rare instance of me slow-playing.

Do we know each other?