Here's the situation:

1/2 Maryland Live, 10:30 PM

tl;dr
Hero (300): 22 year old white dude, bought in for 300, 3.5 hrs into the session, just about as long as villain has been at the table. Been pretty card/situation dead the last two days, probably seen as TAG since I pretty much always open vs. limp, 3 bet a decent amount, cbet a ton, etc. Haven't won a single hand at showdown all night, but have still been fairly active and have taken down a few decent pots OTF with an A-high after a cbet. Have also been caught making the same type of play a few times, and made one bad series of calls vs. a nit with an outkickered pair of Aces. Been up and down, but overall I'm right where I started.

Villain (800): 30s-40s African American male, been running hotter than the sun last hour, won $500 pot with a straight, showed down a flush or two, called an all-in shove in a 3-way pot with 88s on 346 flop, snowmen ended up scooping after he and the other player checked it down the rest of the way, another $300 pot. Has lost a tiny bit of it back, but still sitting on a big stack. Was chasing draws for two streets and folding when missing, limping random suited hands in crappy position, etc. Can't recall seeing any bluffs. Seemed like a typical recreational live player on a heater.

Hero (UTG): ATdd Raise to $12
Villain (MP): Calls
Meaningless other person (BTN): Calls

Flop ($36) 6c8cTh
Hero: Bets $20
Villain: Calls
MOP: folds

Turn ($70 after rake) 6c8cThAh
Hero: Bets $40 (More perhaps?)
Villain: Raises to $100

The previous hand with the 88's and my general image of villain had me convinced that if he's unable to fold an overpair in that spot, then it would be very difficult for him to fold an inferior two pair in this spot. I'm thinking there are inferior two pairs in his range. I'm thinking there are also a ton of Axcc hands which improved as well. And I'm thinking he continues with a ton of these hands I beat, and I can double up through this guy, so a shove seems enticing. But rec players play sets and flopped straights like this all the time, and I'm dead in the water against those hands. So I kinda want to fold. Is calling to reevaluate OOP even an option? What's the best line from here?

Both your flop and turn bets are too small given the board texture. It may seem less significant than your decision after his raise, but with slightly larger bet sizes, him raising would provide you with a totally different read on his strength. That said, it's definitely a tough spot since your reads on him are all passive/calling. I don't think folding is terrible, but if your read was slightly altered to where you had seen more aggressiveness from him then it would completely change things.

Welcome to the forum.

Pot the flop since it's draw heavy and charge max value.

3/4 the turn since Ace just hit and you just made two pair and rec players fear any ace hitting on turn.

I figure he'd have raised flop with a flopped straight or set out of fear of the flush draw.

I would think he peeled with a 6 or 8 or with Ak or AQ and could be spazzing.

Definitely a sick spot...I go all in because villain could be over valuing his hand but I don't hate a fold either.

What kinds of hands did you see him show down with in raised pots? You say you think worse 2p is in his range. I think if he has worse 2p, it's probably A6 or A8 suited, and he hit right along with you. Certainly AK and AQ are possible especially if clubs. JQ or KQ clubs are in there.

What do you mean dead in the water? If he has 66, 88, or 79 you still have 4 outs. It's not much but it's something.

I can't give any conclusions. Interested to see what others say.

Scratch that. If you really think he could have two pair or AcXc, then you have to shove, plain and simple. There are 11 combinations of hands that beat you (3x 66, 3x 88, 1x TT, 4x 79s), but 29 that lose (8x AK, 8x AQ, 6x 2p [8s6s, Ts8s, As6s, As8s, 8h6h, 8d6d], 7x Axs [AJ, A9, A7, A5, A4, A3, A2]. As a lot of the losing hands have good drawing equity, my money is on shoving, and hope you bink the boat if he has you.

Btw, JcQc and KcQc are also very much in his range, so that's 31, and two more hands you want to pay to see the river.

Ship it, more often than not this is a two pair A6 or A8, could also be either one of the flush draws or an Ax. even if he shows up with the occasional set you are crushing his range and he is never folding to a shove.

Ship it. There are a lot more two pairs than there are sets and straights. He may even do this with a strong Ace type hand. The 88 on 346 3-way all in shows how much he overvalues his hands. Even if you are up against a better hand you always have outs (assuming he never has the case AA).

Another thing to note is that raising AT UTG may be a leak in itself.

It's good if the table is passive and bad - but just thought i'd state this.

As for the top 2 pair - not really sure how we can fold this vs this villian.

not many combos of hand that beat us - only 79 - or any set. And it's unlikely he has AA or TT since we hold an A and T and he didn't 3bet pre which is pretty standard to 3bet pre with AA. So that really just leaves 79 - 88 - 66 that we lose against - and a whole lot of hands that we beat that he would also do this with.

Get it in. 99% of rec players are raising this flop with a set or a straight because they have some semblance of an idea that the turn is going to be scary a good portion of the time and won't realize that half of those scary cards won't hit your range. I'd be very inclined to think he has 2 pair/aces with draw. If he's coming off a heater, he's not folding his pair+draw here and he's certainly not folding his 2 pair. I think your ahead with great odds for worse to call a push a big percentage of the time. If he flopped the set or straight, toss the dealer a redbird to bottom deal you an ace.

I would only ever consider not shipping it against a super nit. Pretty standard shove.

Flatting is bad. All but 4 cards make the situation murkier than it is right now.

Ship.

Pretty much agree with everyone above. You're only options are shipping or folding. Flatting isn't good at all.

I think you have to ship IMO. Especially since he clearly overvalues hands way too much. If you're behind, it's a cooler but at least you won't be drawing dead.

Welcome to the forums, btw. Tough spot.

Seems the consensus is to ship. I'll leave the results in a spoiler in case you're interested.

I do see a lot of villains slowplaying when they flop monsters, even on wet boards. However, I think that he would probably raise with 2 pair + so I would discount those holdings. I don't like reraising since I think it's an overplay. However, I don't like folding either since we have some equity against his range:

Board: Th 8c 6c Ah
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.800% 47.87% 05.93% 674 83.50 { AcTc, AsTs, As8s, As6s, 97s, AcTs, AsTc, Ac8d, Ac8h, Ac8s, As8d, As8h, Ac6d, Ac6h, Ac6s, As6d, As6h, 97o }
Hand 1: 46.200% 40.27% 05.93% 567 83.50 { AdTd }

His raising range is probably the same as what he is going to call it off with and from looking at the equity, we would need over 50% equity to make a reraise profitable. I would just call and evaluate. Most villains would not bet the river when checked to without the near nuts and you could fold if he were to bet OTR.


If he has demonstrated that he can slowplay OTF on a wet board with 2 pair+, then I would probably shove since his range would look more like this and we would have over 50% equity to make a shove profitable:

Board: Th 8c 6c Ah
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.128% 43.68% 03.45% 1057 83.50 { AcAs, TcTs, 8d8h, 8d8s, 8h8s, 6d6h, 6d6s, 6h6s, AcTc, AsTs, As8s, As6s, Ts8s, 97s, 8d6d, 8h6h, 8s6s, AcTs, AsTc, Ac8d, Ac8h, Ac8s, As8d, As8h, Ac6d, Ac6h, Ac6s, As6d, As6h, Tc8d, Tc8h, Tc8s, Ts8d, Ts8h, 97o, 8d6h, 8d6s, 8h6d, 8h6s, 8s6d, 8s6h }
Hand 1: 52.872% 49.42% 03.45% 1196 83.50 { AdTd }