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1/2 NL: TPWK River Decision 1/2 NL: TPWK River Decision

10-26-2013 , 02:05 AM
I'm new to the table but at least 4 people have history playing with me knowing I'm a solid player.

Straddled pot. 1/2 at Maryland Live Casino. Guy straddling for $5 UTG I didn't remember all that much about him but I did remember he's sort of a LAG type that isn't afraid to take shots at pots. He has $185ish behind.

It gets limped around to what I believe ended up being 7 players to the flop. I call with Q7 OTB. I guess I could have raised here if I was going to play this hand but I had decided I was going to play a little passively (mistake?) until I at least built a little stack since I was on my 2nd buy-in. Table has 4 huge maniac fish who are very spewy so I know if I flop anything good I can value own them. I have $270 in front of me.

The straddler raises to $15 straight. Everyone who limped called and the flop is:

($105) Q94

Straddler was first to act and led out for $20. 3 callers including myself.

($185) Turn: 5

Checked through.

River: 10

Straddler bets out $45. One fold, and guy to my right (my friend who will call light with about $450 behind) thinks and calls. Hero?

I know I'm getting absurd odds to call ($45 to win $275, 6:1) but I literally couldn't figure out what I could beat with the given action except a weird semi-bluff. The Straddler when he bet $45 on the river only had $60 behind. I figured if he was going to try and buy the pot at this point he would have shoved for his $105 into the $185 pot. The $45 bet (basically half his remaining stack) just felt like a value bet and I couldn't beat any value hands, and how often can my TPWK be good here when 7 players saw the flop?

Am I thinking about it the right way?

Last edited by Havax; 10-26-2013 at 02:22 AM.
1/2 NL: TPWK River Decision Quote
10-26-2013 , 03:55 AM
Fold pre. Fold river. Solid players don't limp along with Q7, even if its sooooooted.
1/2 NL: TPWK River Decision Quote
10-26-2013 , 09:46 AM
If HU faced w River call I might consider TT/JJ/9x from bettor, but with a caller in front I think you are beat most times here by 2 pr or bigger Q.

Good spot to 3-bet squeeze PF the raise here and then see how it goes OTF with an easy hand to fold. Dont really want to open raise PF IMO with so many callers but the same reasoning holds ... easy fold if played back at on this board.

This is a LOW end range here, but it sounds like you know this already. GL
1/2 NL: TPWK River Decision Quote
10-26-2013 , 12:23 PM
Looks like a better Q than you.
He leads into 7 players, then checks OTT for pot control, then leads river.
QJ imo.
1/2 NL: TPWK River Decision Quote
10-26-2013 , 12:43 PM
We'll ignore the pf for the moment (which is a trivial fold or raise, depending on the villains).

What was your thinking on the flop? Did you think you had the best hand? If you didn't think you had the best hand, why are you calling? You have no draws to a better hand. Even a 7 is more likely to cost you money than make you a bunch of money.

This hand is a classic example of how people bleed money at the table. They think, "well, it is just going to cost me $2, so why not see a flop." The problem is that they then "gotta call, I've got TP" and suddenly they've invested 10% of their stack on a hand where they are totally dependent on hoping they're ahead. Do this a couple of times and hour and you're a break even or losing player.

If you're going to limp in a pot with lots of other limpers, you have to flop a big hand. In fact, you have to flop a big enough hand that you can beat what someone else thinks is a big hand. TPWK isn't even close. Since it is so rare to flop such a big hand with someone else having a good hand, it will be rare to make much money on it. The only one that makes money on a pf multi-way limped pot that ends on the flop is the house.
1/2 NL: TPWK River Decision Quote
10-26-2013 , 01:04 PM
My immediate thought when I read the title (I still haven't read the post) is "this probably isn't a river decision at all."

Just read the post... and I think I'm right. This is a fold pre decision.

As for the rest, I don't really know. I think you can just fold the flop to be honest. Dude is betting into 7 players, you don't have any real draws, it's hard to improve as you have very little backdoor equity, and if you do improve to trips, you're more likely to lose your stack than win someone else's. That fact you're getting a bunch of callers is putting you in an incredibly bad spot with an incredibly bad hand in a pot that getting way too large.

As for your thinking on the river, yes, I do think you're thinking about this pretty well and have a very good sense of the situation. Well said. The odds are extremely compelling, but you just have TPWK.

Here's the thing: Why do you just have TPWK? Is it back luck? A tough spot? A tricky hand? Are you getting outplayed? Not really. The issue with this hand is almost exclusively that you played a hand pre-flop that has incredibly poor post-flop equity. You flopped one of the best hands you'll make. Sometimes you'll make a better hand, but everyone will just fold. Other times, you'll make a very strong hand and lose your whole stack. And other times, things will work out pretty well for you. But overall, it's a -EV situation, even in excellent position.

So this isn't really a river decision at all, it's a pre-flop decision.
1/2 NL: TPWK River Decision Quote

      
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