At the table 3-4 hours at a large casino. Made a few sets and won some big pots on showdown. Also showed a few bluffs. In a good place.

Villain: Very weak loose 35 y/o white male. Range from blinds is incredibly wide, and he's playing many hands oop. He's sitting at the table with his friend, who is nice and personable, seems like a good guy. His friend keeps making fun of villain for playing trash hands, splashing around with weak holdings, etc., both in today's session and in other sessions they've played together in the past. Villain's play seems pretty consistent with this talk so far, and the chatter seems like credible information.

Stacks:
Hero on BTN: $500+
Villain in SB: ~$180

Dealt to Hero: T9.

6 folds to hero on BTN.

Hero (BTN) raises to $10.
Villain (SB) says "you're a chop blocker" in a friendly way, thinks for 5-10 seconds, and calls.
BB folds.

FLOP: ($22) JJ7 (don't recall exact suits, but there were no flush considerations)

SB bets $15, Hero calls $15

TURN: ($52) JJ7K

SB bets $25, hero calls $25

RIVER: ($102) JJ7KK

SB bets $40, hero raises to $100

Spew, imo. Weak V's betting on paired boards have at least a pair, are unbelievers, and aren't folding it. Flop call with your gutshot might be OK, esp as you can rep a scare card for some bluff outs. Turn is a raise or a fold, and river is never a raise, even given the weak bet. The only thing that's folding here is 3-pair<JJ, and you already beat or chop that. Personally, I wouldn't ever call here either, as theis V is unlikely to bet a counterfeited 3-pair here.

Yeah, hate this line. Repping a float that turned into Kings full is by default a very unbelievable line. Jx will never fold the river for this sizing. Don't see what is betting 3 streets that folds the river (TT?).

Raising the flop is the best option, if you don't want to fold. I would fold.

These are not the types of spots that fatten our bottomline profit at low limit NL. It's just FPS against all but the craziest/weirdest opponents.

Fold pre. Their calling ranges in the blinds crush T9o and there were no limpers.

I have to say--his line looks really weak and if you're trying to take it down, either call flop and raise turn or raise flop and fire turn (if he's not a complete station). This particular line does not look credible and is very spewy

I appreciate the responses. They're all thoughtful. I'll respond with my thinking to see if we can facilitate any other discussion. I can see how this looks like mindless spew, but I was really thinking about ranges and tendencies.

First, I play TAG, positional, value betting poker at these stakes. Of course that's the way to profit, and there's no room for FPS. I bluff, but rarely, which is obviously the correct thing to do, but if anything, I worry I play too fit or fold, even at these stakes.

I also want to be sure I think and play creatively and take advantage of non-obvious opportunities. This is a spot where I felt creative, for better or worse.

Here was thinking (no results yet):

Pre-Flop:
These generally passive villains aren't 3-betting often or light, and if they stick around, I'm guaranteed to play in position, which is huge. I'll play ~100BB heads up pots in position against weak/passive players all day with a relatively wide range of cards. My raise will also take down the blinds some % of the time, which is great, too. So pre-flop seemed very straightforward to me, but I'm definitely open to other thoughts.

Flop:
I'm obviously floating. Let's really think about villain's range.

First, pre-flop, I estimated he's playing 60-70% of hands. With 2 J's on the flop and a range of hands that includes such powerhouses as 64s, 65o, 86s, 96o, you name it, it's incredibly hard for villain to have the J he's representing... and his actual value range is going to be so thin - pretty much Jx. He's also not an old passive nit type who I would LOL-snap-fold to a flop bet, which is almost always going to be value and nuts heavy. That's not what this guy is doing.

It's mathematically hard for him to have a J. The vast majority of the time when he does have a J, he does not bet the flop. It's cool that I have the gut shot, but that's not a ton of equity. I figured at the time that I would probably call with ATC. I'm really playing position and planning to take it away from the turn.

Turn:
I'm surprised he bet again. He probably doesn't bet a turned K. It's still an incredibly strange line for Jx. I still think his range is very wide and very airy on the turn. I certainly could raise/fold to take this down now, but I think I can use position more effectively. I learn a ton on the river that helps me play this more optimally and profitably. Specifically, I don't think he'll 3-barrel with air, and I still have a gut shot. The plan is to bet the river if he checks to me.

River:
This is a good run out for my hand. To be clear, I don't think he ever folds a J. I also don't think he's hand reading closely, so he can think I easily have a K or a J. I assume he'll fold everything but a full house and that he'll never ever fold a full house. In fact, if I held a K, I would overshove the pot because I think he calls with a J and folds everything else anyway.

He bet $40 on the river... it's hard to describe exactly how small a bet it was. I think the pot was ~$102, but maybe closer to $110-$115, it felt that way. The point is, $40 was an INCREDIBLY small river bet. This just totally blew his cover. There was just no way in my mind that he bets flop and turn with the nut hand he's representing, gets to the river, and then bets the effective minimum. His line that made no sense for value made even less sense for value now. I read him as very wide pre-flop, airy on the flop, I called the turn with some caution and a plan for the river, and he surprised me with what I decided was an impossible value bet size tell. So I made a big bluff raise.

Don't know if that fosters discussion or not, but happy to discuss more. Again, I can why people say it's spewy. It looks spewy, hence why I'm sharing the thought process. It's just funny because in my game, I'm more concerned I play too ABC and that I miss creative opportunities - here I was thinking about ranges, villain tendencies, bet sizing, using position, etc., and felt I might be able to create a very profitable situation rather than just saying I missed, he bet 2 streets, I fold.

Pre is fine.

Flop analysis is good, but what you fail to realize is that on a paired board he doesn't believe you have a Jack either, so he's not folding his 2-pair. It is very hard to float a paired board against weak villains.

Turn is just horribad. If he barrels that card, he is not folding to a double-float unless he's on pure air. Plus it is definitely not "an incredibly strange line for Jx." What is strange about flopping trips and going for multiple streets of value?

River is worse. Yes, his bet sizing is tiny, but you didn't make "a big bluff raise." You raised $60 into a $180 pot. What folds for 1/3 pot there? only PPs<TT and, as said before, you're beating or chopping with those anyway.

X2 on this. Raise river to $140 if you are going to bluff.

OP - what do you think the calling range is from the blinds for most villains after everyone else has folded and they know it will probably be heads up?

Pre is standard, floating the flop so-so, but I'll trust your reads/range. Think at a min he has a pair, even as high as TT.

Turn - out play your opponent, this is the ideal card imo. Most players give credit for A and K, so I'd rather take my shot here as opposed to the river where bluff sizing will be more costly. He recalls you raised pre, so you have a decent line.

You may have over thought this spot.

Preflop is standard for me when folded to. A 1/2 PSB flop cbet against the fit/foldy loose SB should be extremely profitable.

I would just fold the flop. We don't have good implied odds to chase the gutshot (unless Villain actually does have a J) and it's possible we're drawing dead. Even the majority of hands he is bluffing with are actually ahead of us. The only reason to call the flop is to try and get him off some sorta hand on later streets; I usually don't try to attempt to get poor players off of hands because they typically just call (which is what makes value betting so profitable). Too FPS on the flop, imo.

If our plan was to get the villain off a weak hand, the turn is the perfect card to do it. He's led fairly weakly (slightly less than 1/2 PSB) and an overcard that hits our AK is going to cause him to fold small pairs. Isn't this one of the cards we were hoping for when we called the flop?

By the river, I'm actually fairly concerned on why this guy is still betting into us on this board. It's possible he actually has the goods. And he's never folding a fullhouse, even the bottom end. I would probably give up at this point.

I think if we're going to play postflop like this, we'd probably be better off folding preflop.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Problem is if we have a K why are we raising turn? Jx isn't folding and we now beat all PPs

Villain is very loose preflop (trying to just hit a hand, from the sounds of things), which makes a raise/cbet pretty profitable with almost ATC and a good image, no? I think preflop is very standard (unless we're going to spew postflop).

GmraggroG

Kinda doubt our opponent is thinking at that level? All he's thinking is "damn, I guess my 55 / bluff isn't good any more".

Opponent profile. He is thinking basement level and may fold 88-.

His comment "your a chop-blocker" pre-flop might be a tell: he's implying that he's calling because "your a chop-blocker" and not because of his ace / pocket pair / high cards... I fold on turn (or maybe flop).

Pre - good.

Flop - fold this if V overplays marginal holdings. You don't want to bluff that kind of player.

Turn - Does V typically bet small? If yes, fold. If not, this is where you bluff. By calling a raise to $75, he will be committing his stack. Even sticky, fish V's don't like to do this with a weak underpair. If he calls, you are done with the hand absent an 8 on the river.

River - horrible for the reasons outlined above.

What about raising this flop?

I have found that this type of villain will lead this flop with Ax type hands quite often. If he has 7x or an unimproved pocket pair and decides to call, the turn will present a number of good bluffing opportunities, a chance to improve the hand, or a chance to take a free card.

This is where your logic goes wrong in my opinion:

Flop: It's mathematically possible for him to have a J. His call means nothing to you as his range is undefined. You just described him as terrible and he bet into you. You should not float terrible players, because when terrible players are shoveling it in, they often have it and you are just lighting money on fire. With a gutterball, fold, you don't have to win this hand. Wait for a better spot.

Turn: You just double floated a bad player. This ends 1 of 2 ways: You win and he has air, or you double him up. I just don't see what you are trying to accomplish. You have a double gutter now, but you are still way behind any piece of the flop he hit.

River: How bad is this guy? To convince me this line shows any profit, you have to convince me that he is beyond terrible. This looks like a bad player's "I have a jack and am scared you have a king" line. That line is calling you and taking your money.

Summary: I hope you won this hand, but, you floated twice and raised with a hand that loses to Q high against a bad player that bet 3 streets. That is not TAG poker. Just let it go on the flop and pick a better spot.

Looks good but I think I might raise bigger otr to maybe $140 or $150 to make him fold A7 (which I think is a big part of his range) and other Ax he's spazzing with. He's more inclined to make hero calls to impress his friend at the table so I don't think $100 is enough.

Haven't read anything put OP. nice hand. I like the play here given button vs blind psychology.. If it doesn't work then w/e but I like where your heads at. He probably has like q7

Put him all in doh to fold out ace high

Wanted to answer a few questions I saw here.

It's strange enough, but it is certainly possible and part of his range. I think he's going to check the flop a lot with a J. He's not a nit-I-made-a-hand-I-bet now guy. He's spewy, splashy, FPSy, not hand reading, playing wide oop. I think his range is extremely wide and includes a lot of air.

Agreed it's not a "big raise." I considered what would be "big enough" to get the job done as efficiently as possible, and I decided anything 100+ would do the trick given the types of hands I want him to fold and my expectation about his hand reading / bet size reading skills.

I don't think he's heroing with a hand like A-high, and I do think he can be clicking buttons with hands like Ax and Qx, among others; basically, my hand just isn't strong enough to call because I lose to some of his air - so I need to bluff / rebluff him. I obviously wanted to keep it as small as possible. So I put $100 into $142, and I needed villain to fold ~41% of the time to show a profit.

I'm not sure about most villains. Obviously this hand is very read dependent. I think he's calling ~60%-70% of hands, all non-monster 3-betting hands like mid to weak Ax, Kx, Qx, Jx, Tx, suited connectors, unsuited connectors, mid/low gappers, low pairs, etc., etc.

His range pre-flop is incredibly wide - maybe 90% of it does not include a J. This guy betting the flop does not make his range that much more J-heavy. Against a different type of villain, this hand is an easy fold on the flop. Against a different villain, you should fold the flop holding A7. Maybe this hand is just too read dependent for a good 2p2 discussion. It's not a standard ABC spot, so it doesn't discuss well in a vacuum.

Good observation, but he said it before he looked at his cards. He didn't say it in a nasty way, but he did say it in a serious way, like he was bummed.

Anyway, for results, he snapped with JJ. Just kidding. He insta-folded. Results really don't matter, but for the curious. I don't think he really had anything, even a 7 or a pocket pair, and his river bet was a weak attempt at continuing the bluff. The bet size was a huge tell. It obviously also possible he was counterfeited.

grunch: nh

My thoughts exactly. Best card in the deck hits for our hand. It's a scary overcard that hits our obvious AK hand, that King overcard also doesn't coordinate with the flop at all, i.e. it's not likely to improve villain's range but villain has to be scared that it helped our pfr range. That turn card also gives us 8 outs to improve those times our turn raise is called. Villain also bet just under 1/2 pot giving us more hope that we can catch him weak and get our desired fold. I would raise whatever amount that would get 7x/22-TT to fold. A raise to $80 should do the job imo.

I'm about to make a controversial assertion that I can't back up but still strongly suspect it's true. At 1-2nl, your thought process above is gonna cost you a lot of money, because there are lots of spots where bluffing without a good story is gonna get the goods. In fact I suspect that most of the profitable bluffs at 1-2nl that come up will be empty range bluffs (i.e. bluffs with bad stories backing them up). Players just suck really really bad at hand reading at this level, and so many players let you know usually through betting tells that they won't call a raise.

My guess is at 2-5, a credible story behind a bluff starts to become more important, and of course everything I said above should be taken generally. Obv against a thinking 1-2 player, empty range bluffs ain't gonna work.

^^ I don't think it'd be an empty range bluff, and it's not about the K.

Flop call followed by turn raise reps a ton of Jx hands. Forget the K.