The table is pretty loose/passive, w/one guy playing pretty laggy. Lots of big stacks/stuck players it's towards the end of the night. Hero came to the table w/about 340 and has won about 100 mostly from 2 hands I've raised and taken down w/out a showdown about an hour at being at the table. Hero's stack is 440.

V1 is mid to late 50s. I've played a bit w/him. If you check it to him I've seen him bluff/semibluff over maybe a few hours playing w/him. He's mostly loose/passive pf and recently has lost a few hands where he was ahead at some point and was no good by showdown. He seems tilted. He has me covered.

V2 is a bit looser and passive than what you'd consider tag. Plays relatively well in his mid to late 40s certainly a winning player. Has roughly 300.

v1 utg limps, v2 utg+1 limps, lp limps, I complete the sb, bb checks.

Flop: QhTh3c
Pot 8

I bet 10, bb folds, v1 calls, v2 calls, lp folds.

Turn: QhTh3c 9s
Pot 44

I bet 30, v1 calls, v2 tank folds.

River: QhTh3c 9s 3s
Pot 104

I bet 65, v1 tanks for 15 seconds and raises to 165, hero? I felt like this was close between a raise and a call. I think we're mostly looking at the case TT and the few times he both slow plays KJ and raises river w/it.

fold, pre, flop.

river is definitely a gross spot. i think you should ship since there are way more KJ combos in his range than TT (obviously, only 1 TT) and highly doubt he has Q3/99 here. However, call seems "okay" if you think he'd raise/fold KJ here *(also, whats the likelyhood he would raise turn with KJ esp with 1 person behind him, maybe he has KhJh and thats why he didnt raise turn and now raising river?).

also, do you think he'd call the river with QJ/JT more times than if you checked it to him? Obviously if you check it to him and you raise and then he shoves, its another gross spot, but just stating an alternative line.

edit, also, will he limp preflop trying to trap / limp-reraise preflop? I wouldn't put it out of question that villain can have QQ (albeit unlikely with the runout and the betting).

edit 2, turn bet should definitely be bigger.

I think he has 99, QQ, Q3s here at times. However I think if you combined all the times he gets to the river like he did w/those hands probably adds up to a miniscule number less than .1 combo of hands.

To be quite frank, this is a such a ****ty and coinflippable spot that it's not worth a discussion about since there really is nothing useful to gain here outside of the simple fact that this is a slam dunk folding preflop hand.

Vacuum setting, I'd say shove.

Having being there and seeing how the person reacts to preflop, flop, turn, river, the way the guy looks, the way the guy bets, etc aka "lol live reads" makes this spot a bit more closer to discuss.

After you fail to fold this hand from this small blind (and you should, close to 100% of the time, saving for when it's head up BvB then we can talk..) the hand was played fairly well imo.

River raises are typically VERY strong in llsnl, but our hand is pretty well disguised.
I think that I'd have to call here on the fact that V could be tooling out with KJ here.

Not sure what raising would do even with our disguised hand. Call and expect to win mostly. Enjoy your image for the rest of the night with T3. Profit

Given the description of V, this is a call. If you shove, you'll never get called by worse anyways.

Its not likely these guys are limping 99, TT or QQ from any spot. On the river his range of hands that beat you are Q-3 that they would limp with. I cant think of any other limping hands that beat you. The hands that you can get value from if you ship are K-J, J-8 and 9-3

Based off the run out and betting I expect to see J-8 or Q-3, maybe 9-3 like 85% of the time at showdown. So the guy who said this is super coin flip is right.

Fold pre man! Can't tell you how many of these live low stakes NL threads consist of someone completing SB/calling a raise from SB or BB with weak hands pre and then ending up in a super awkward spot post flop where they have no clue where they are at or what they should do. Fold mo' f'ing pre fellas and you will sleep better at night, trust me...

As played shove. If played differently fold SB.

Results: I called after contemplating a shove and villain turned over KJ.

I spitballed a little bit w/some math here's what I came up with.


So on the river after v1's raise the pot is 334. I have 333 left in my stack.

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: QhTh3c9s3s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 80.00% 80.00% 0.00% { Td3d }
MP3 20.00% 20.00% 0.00% { TT, KJs }

If I shove let's say v1 calls w/KJ 1 of the 4 combos he has and TT 100%.

Math looks like this:

60% of the time villain folds and we win 334 = 160
20% of the time villain calls w/KJ and we win 451 = 90
20% of the time villain calls w/TT and we lose 333 = -66

So we net $184.

If we call
80% we win 334 = 267
20% we lose another 100 = -20.

So we net $247.


These values change extremely if he only raises fhs and calls str8s, or always folds to a 3 bet w/worse. I guess this post is some meandering doing some math. I guess how does it look?

lol wth why not do a little bit more math b4 I hit the hay.

Let's assume villain calls w/half his KJ range.

40% of the time villain folds and we win 334 = 133
40% of the time villain calls w/KJ and we win 451 = 180
20% of the time villain calls w/TT and we lose 333 = -66

So we net $247. So shipping giving the above criteria is the same as calling.

In order for shoving to show a profit he'd have either slowplay KJ more and/or call more than 2 combos of KJ.

Basically I put myself in a weird spot by calling pf. I