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1/2 NL: Stealing gone wrong w/ 93hh 1/2 NL: Stealing gone wrong w/ 93hh

07-13-2014 , 08:00 PM
Toward the end of my session and I'm at about breakeven, maybe down a little bit, sitting at 270. I've been active but I don't think I've been caught out of line at this table (I changed about 45 mins earlier).

Folds to me in the CO and I have the glorious 93hh. I make it 10. Button has been tight as long as I've been sitting, playing maybe 3 pots. He insta-calls. SB is an even bigger nit, betting heavy only when he has the nuts or a monster hand and calling anything if he has a monster draw. He makes it 20. Pretty sure he's got a big hand, potentially AA. I call, tight button calls.

Flop is 8h2h3d, the kind of flop I love to hammer but can't because both villains wouldn't fold out overpairs. SB opens for 50. After thinking for a few seconds the button pretty much folds out of turn -- it's clear that if I call it'll be heads up. Is this a call or something more? Keep in mind that the SB is def not betting 50 without at least an overpair. Zero percent chance he's bluffing so if I jam he's probably snap-calling.
1/2 NL: Stealing gone wrong w/ 93hh Quote
07-13-2014 , 09:51 PM
Fold pre flop the first time around.

Fold the second time around.

As played, jam is +EV given the dead money in the pot but high variance.
Calling is also likely +EV getting better than 2:1 with likely 14 outs on each street.

I don't know what I'd do here since I'd almost never find my self in this spot with 93hh. I'd prolly click it back to $125 hoping to rep a set, and jam all turn cards.

You've put your self in a really bad spot here given the pre flop action.
1/2 NL: Stealing gone wrong w/ 93hh Quote
07-13-2014 , 09:53 PM
Why did you call with 2 nits and you having crap?

Pot is $60.
SB opens for $50.

Pot equity is 110:50 or about 2:1 (33%)

Pot odds.
You have 11 outs (9 for flush, and two more 3's out there)
Rule of 2/4 means 22% and 44% pot odds.
22% is about 4:1.
You have 2:1 equity, and are only paying 4:1 odds.
This means you should call.

In Pokerstove, you have 75% equity against a Broadway and any PP range .
Perfect low card flop for you. This is an even stronger case for calling.
1/2 NL: Stealing gone wrong w/ 93hh Quote
07-13-2014 , 09:56 PM
Could SB have pocket 8s?
1/2 NL: Stealing gone wrong w/ 93hh Quote
07-13-2014 , 10:12 PM
If your going to play, shove flop. From the sounds of it, villain almost always has the over pair. You probably don't have much FE, if any, but you don't want villain to get away from their hand when the flush hits and you want to see both cards.

You should never be in this situation though. Your hand is a trivial fold to the min-raise. Your not deep enough and your hand isn't good enough to be trying to crack a big pair.
1/2 NL: Stealing gone wrong w/ 93hh Quote
07-13-2014 , 10:18 PM
If v is never folding there is no point in shoving...
1/2 NL: Stealing gone wrong w/ 93hh Quote
07-13-2014 , 10:24 PM
You have no FE and already ahead of AK so just call and fold brick turns. If you smash turn then get it in and put him on life tilt.
1/2 NL: Stealing gone wrong w/ 93hh Quote
07-14-2014 , 07:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wj94
You have no FE and already ahead of AK so just call and fold brick turns. If you smash turn then get it in and put him on life tilt.
We'll still have ~30% equity on any brick turn that doesn't give him a set or pair the board (assuming he has an overpair and not a set).




I prefer raising flop and then potentially getting a free card on turn. If he 3bets OTF I'm pretty happy to get it in here as a slight dog (47% vs overpair). Keep in mind, if he has a set you're pretty **** out of luck... the super small 3bet preflop makes no sense in that case though as I think he'd either raise more trying to take it down pre or just call.
1/2 NL: Stealing gone wrong w/ 93hh Quote
07-14-2014 , 09:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oddhalo
If v is never folding there is no point in shoving...
This was my thinking. I just felt like he had a big hand there and knew it was better to re-eval on the turn. If I catch a heart, a 9 or a 3 I'm pretty sure I'm doubling up.

So let's continue this abortion of a hand ...

Turn is a black K. SB checks! I don't trust it and I check back.

River is a black Q. SB checks again! Hero???
1/2 NL: Stealing gone wrong w/ 93hh Quote
07-14-2014 , 09:56 AM
That flop makes the "hero" virtually a coinflip against any over pair to the board correct?
1/2 NL: Stealing gone wrong w/ 93hh Quote
07-14-2014 , 10:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by VentralStriatum
That flop makes the "hero" virtually a coinflip against any over pair to the board correct?
Slightly ahead. So calling can only be the best play if there is a chance he pays you if when you hit and also if he might give you a free card if you miss, abs ifyou have no f old equity. Surely he is paying off two pair or trips if not the flush?

As played check river

Sent from my GT-I9300 using 2+2 Forums
1/2 NL: Stealing gone wrong w/ 93hh Quote
07-14-2014 , 11:11 AM
Fold pre.

Now bet all of your chips.
1/2 NL: Stealing gone wrong w/ 93hh Quote
07-14-2014 , 11:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dozer
Toward the end of my session and I'm at about breakeven, maybe down a little bit, sitting at 270. I've been active but I don't think I've been caught out of line at this table (I changed about 45 mins earlier).

Folds to me in the CO and I have the glorious 93hh. I make it 10. Button has been tight as long as I've been sitting, playing maybe 3 pots. He insta-calls. SB is an even bigger nit, betting heavy only when he has the nuts or a monster hand and calling anything if he has a monster draw. He makes it 20. Pretty sure he's got a big hand, potentially AA. I call, tight button calls.

Flop is 8h2h3d, the kind of flop I love to hammer but can't because both villains wouldn't fold out overpairs. SB opens for 50. After thinking for a few seconds the button pretty much folds out of turn -- it's clear that if I call it'll be heads up. Is this a call or something more? Keep in mind that the SB is def not betting 50 without at least an overpair. Zero percent chance he's bluffing so if I jam he's probably snap-calling.
you don´t know that. 0%, def are not variables to put into a poker hand discussion. no one´s putting you on the mighty 93s also, amirite?
just raise/get it in otf
1/2 NL: Stealing gone wrong w/ 93hh Quote
07-15-2014 , 03:05 PM
pre is whatever. I don't mind stealing with suited trash occasionally at the right tables if I have a tight image. I prefer to do it over a passive fit/fold limper or two though. Fold to the minraise though. This hand plays terribly post flop without the betting lead unless you flop gin.

As played, I shove it in on the flop. You can't say for certain that he is calling off with any overpair. Even if he does call, you have enough equity against overpairs to make the shove profitable.

Once he checks the turn, we have ~$180 left into a pot of $160? I probably shove the turn. We probably get him off most of his range, and we still have pretty good equity if he does call.

Now that he's checked twice on the river, I'm still shoving to fold out 99-JJ, and other random trashy 1-pair hands.
1/2 NL: Stealing gone wrong w/ 93hh Quote

      
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