I have JJ in CO+2

UTG has been whittled down to $20 and goes all in
3 people call behind.

I am sitting with ~$300 and I make it $125

it folds to BB who insta shoves for $250, and it folds back around to me.

Pot is ~$450, $125 to call.

I have no history of this guy, as he just sat down, or this is the first time I even noticed him. FWIW, villain is black, well dressed/nice watch, and one of his $100 was a black chip (I'm assuming he plays table games). I look around the table going over the action trying to figure out if mathematically I should call, even if he has AA, KK, QQ. He confidently says "You don't have to call", smiling, "I'll show", and "I'm not playing you"

What do you do? I realize this might just be an easy math decision, but I haven't quite figured it out yet.

You are a 4:1 dog against an overpair getting ~3.6:1 pot odds. I don't see AKs making this play having just sat down and having no reads on anybody so statistically you are not getting the odds to call if you put him on AA/KK (I doubt QQ makes this play either).

Someone correct me if I am wrong.

Snap call.

If he has all AA/KK in his range and exactly 1 combo of AKs then if's a profitable call I believe.
And I generally give people a 5% tool out factor. So should be fine.

Edit:

Turns out he needs to shove AA/KK and 1 combo of AKo for this to be break even. We need 21.55% equity and we would have 21.59% equity. But it's just decimal points. So given that there's 16 combos of AK, if he shoves 2 of them it's a pretty standard call. So, does he shove AK here ~10% of the time or no?

That's your answer.

I still say call.

$83 in pot(UTG $20,3 callers$60,$1sb,$2bb) + your $125 + $250 more from BB $458. $125 more for you to call meaning $125 to win $583 is 4.66-1.

I'm hoping you called. Regardless you got to see showdown. Results?

Also if you considered folding for one second. Why make it $125? I understand you likely just wanted to go heads up with UTG risking $20 essentially to win a $103 pot but what were the callers stack sizes etc?

You don't add the amount you have to call to the pot when calculating your pot odds. You divide the current total of the pot by the amount you have to call, so ($450 / $125)

we're pretty much smoked in 1/2 with the minraise, the problem is we made it too big to begin with and it would suck to bet 41% of our stack then fold to a 4bet. We should only make that bet if we plan on jamming it to a re-raise.

We could have flatted pf and played it post flop, JJ is not always an automatic 3bet.

The speech sounds like kings

So I ended up tank folding…

I had just busted from a tourney in a similar situation, where the BB had QQ and I called off w/ JJ, so that was replaying in my mind.

He actually talked me out of calling, and got me thinking he had KK/QQ and was afraid of a call from Ax

Anyways I fold and he rolls over 99, so yea.. he was being a tool. He prob thought he had the best hand though. UTG had 77 and I woulda scooped.

Only UTG+1 had me covered by a lot.. the rest of the stacks were less than $150, aside from Villain. I guess I made it $125 b/c I was happy to take down the dead money and wanted to avoid any tough decisions, which is exactly what I got, ha. If I make it $80 and Villain shoves, that’s an even tougher spot, right?? I also didn’t really want a call from UTG+1 who was sitting with more than 1k.

In hindsight, yes it’s a snap call. I think A LOT of ppl do this with AKo with that stack size… even I would in similar situations. I just couldn’t help feeling I was getting coolered… sigh.

Don't raise so large, bruh. $85 does the same thing as $125, assuming you are iso raising for value because all of the dead money. If you were the last person to act then maybe you can go larger, but with people behind you yet to act you don't want to make big mistakes like the one you made (although I may fold here myself in game.. maybe.. see next paragraph). Honestly him showing up with 99 here is pretty sick. I don't think you'll be seeing that too often (<2% of the time) in this scenario/typical games.

You said he talked and what not after he shoved. Guaranteed you missed some value here. He may have said some things that gave away the strength of his hand and would have allowed you to easily call. Pay attention to this stuff.

Pretty much all of this is true.


5% tool out factor. Gotta call bro.

OP I have several thoughts:
1. Raise size to 125 will render you unable to fold to any shove, if you do so you need to call it off. In the future it's generally a good habit to consider the 1st caller to the $20 shove, many people don't like to cold 3bet AA/KK. At 1/2 games you should massively outskill them in postflop play that it's sometimes good to give yourself further control, so I'd like a raise to 55~70. Don't be afraid of their sucking out. You're a much better player and postflop is where you excel.
2. Black guy that plays table games at 1/2.
3. So assume villain is solid. In situations where it's close to break even, call off with the intention to rebuy as you'll have many opportunities to get it back. Consider the concept of reciprocal tilt control: if you lose, you'll still play a good game. If a table player loses, he will probably stay here to feed.

This is a call without the speech, but I think the speech makes it a fold. This is 99% AA from a black guy -- at least, the black guys that I've played with (bad or good) have always been pretty straightforward and even have given me a couple walks, and I don't think I've gotten walks from anyone else.

You just ran into the 1% here. Funny, he probably thought 99 was good because he put you on AK/AQ and thinks it's correct for you to fold there since you are slightly worse than a coinflip. I'm basing this cluelessness read off the black chip/nicely dressed part. And the fact that he had 99.

He can't be a good player who did some sick level with his speech because a good player knows you have aces or kings most of the time and that you can't fold there with worse hands either.

Oh well. Next hand.

x3