Effective stacks of $250. V is a young 20's annoying kid that loves to splash around in pots and tries to sound smart but seems to lack poker fundamentals (though he often sucks out due to playing so many hands). I've played with him before and don't really care for him but he seems to think I'm his friend so whatever that's worth. V has been limp/calling raises all day saying "you want action? alright." He's up around $400 for the session from what I can gather. I've personally seen him call raises with hands like 63s, J4s, 85o, etc.

Hero's image is tight and snug. I haven't played many pots in the 3 hours I've been there mostly due to being card dead. I don't think I've called a single raise yet - the only pots I've won were pots I raised pre and took down on the flop or turn.

One limper in MP
V1 limps in LP
Hero raises to $14 on BTN with A J
Folds to V1 who calls $14

Pot: $30

Flop: 8 9 J

V1 checks
Hero bets $20
V1 c/r to $60
Hero calls $60

Pot: $150

Turn: 4

V1 goes all-in
Hero folds

I am mostly interested in thoughts on calling the flop raise? In my mind, V is capable of making this type of raise with QJ, QT, JT, T9, T8, T7, J9, 98 and J8. I think he would have raised with any PP so I am not worried about JJ, 99 or 88. Is this enough combos to make a flop c/r call worth it? Since I have position, I can see what V does on the turn.

My commitment decision was "Call the flop raise and reassess turn. Fold if V bets big on the turn. Check back if V checks turn and be prepared to call a small to medium sized river bet." Is this pretty good logic for the way the hand played out and my SDV?

Calling the flop raise to fold the blank turn is horrible imo. Your commitment decision is not on the turn, it is after you place the flop bet.

These spots are pretty tricky and require good reads. You say he limp/calls a lot, but any idea as far his LP preflop raising range? I agree he probably doesn't have many sets in his range. Do you think he is raising 89s/J8s/J9s/QTs from LP? How often does he check/raise on draw heavy boards? Does he slowplay his monsters? (If so we can take QT out of his range)

This situation is so read dependent I can't definitively give my thoughts on whether to call the flop. When we don't have a good enough read I would fold to aggression on the flop here with a marginal holding here that only rates to get worse by the river. That said I do think if we call flop we have to get it in on turn unless a scare card hits.

Loose lag is redundant lol. I'm probably folding to the flop x r even from the described V.

What is your reasoning/justification? With effective stacks of $250, when I make my flop bet I have committed <14% of my chips to the pot. When I call V's raise I have committed ~30% of my stack and now get another important piece of information - Villain's turn action.

The turn was a brick and villain is now overbet shoving a coordinated board after raising the flop. Deductive reasoning is now telling me TPTK is no good on this board. Your suggestion that we "have to get it in on turn unless a scare card hits" is pretty awful in my opinion as we are not pot committed by calling the flop.

If you simply fold every time a villain check/raises you on the flop then you are easily exploitable and likely to get run over at the table. I don't think V would turn his hand into a bluff/semi-bluff on the turn here. There are very few semi-bluffs in his range hitting this board that he wouldn't have raised PF. That, combined with his flop c/r and turn shove tells me I am likely behind but I don't think you can just capitulate on the flop to a LAG.

I don't have enough history with V to answer most of these. His LP PF raising range is probably any PP, any two broadway, and SC 76s+, any SG 86s+, Axs, etc. So very wide. But poker is fluid and not static so he may not do it every time.

I think he has way more draws than made hands in his range here.

Hands you're losing to: JJ, QT, J9, J8, 88, 99, 89
Hands you're beating: KJ (but does KJ check raise?)

Big Draws (17 to 18 outs): KTss, KQss, T9ss
Medium Draws (13 to 15 outs): ATss, T9
Smaller Draws (11 outs): A9ss, JT

Our hand doesn't really play well against any of the hands above except KJ, JT (11 outs), and A9ss (11 outs).

Just because this villain will call bets with second pair, doesn't mean he'll be the aggressor with crap. These types of villains have no problem getting the monies in on a big draw. This play really seems like he has a draw and not a made hand (just my gut based on your description). The question is, do you really want to stack off 125bb with TPTK and find out?

Edit: Oh, and as far was your question on the flop raise, well, I probably would just fold. Maybe I'm a nit, but this board is so sopping wet and I don't really want to get involved in a huge pot. That boards connects so well with the kind of hands that this villain would call your raise. We only have TPTK and no re-draws (excpet for an Ace for two pair). So many turn cards are scary. Yeah, maybe that's being too much of nit. I don't know.

This all day. This is the blankiest of blank turns. Such a wet board that we should be deciding on the flop if we are gonna play for stacks. We don't have enough info about v's post tendencies to decide if we should commit or not. If you're rolled sufficiently and/or can stand the variance, call. If you can't, fold. I guess.

Even though villain calls a lot of PF raises with marginal hands, what kinds of hands have you seen him take this line with OTF, if any?

I disagree with your plan of checking back the turn had you been checked to. If this turn rolls off and villain checks we 100% need to be value betting imo. Villain rarely takes that line with better than AJ and we need to get value. Too many terrible rivers that can either A) beat you B) allow you to get bluffed or C) make it impossible for you to get value against worse.

As played. Call, I guess. Flatting the flop and then folding to an absolute brick seems terrible unless you've seen villain c/r bluff flop and then just give up OTT. If you're gonna fold this turn card you need to just fold the flop.

How do you reconcile something like this with "small hand, small pot?" Somewhere I hear Venice saying "the average winning hand at showdown is two pair." If I bet this turn if checked to I am 100% pot committed then regardless of any additional action and regardless of river card. I did not want to commit 125 BB's deep with a pair of jacks.

I think <100 BB's I would be fine calling it off here but at some point you have to draw the line. The problem with LAGs is they are just as easily doing this with JT as they are with QT (or two pair or a set). So then I think it comes down to his range and most of his bluffs and semi-bluffs would likely be hands he opened with I think.

Villain showed me his cards. I can post later.

I think your flop bet is where you make your decision. Your either all in there or bet fold.

He could have a massive draw with QT spades, two pair, JT. Either way I think calling the raise was the mistake.

I'd either shove flop or bet fold. Personally, I'd probably bet fold and wait for a better spot. Assuming he is somewhat observant, he thinks your his friend, *less likely to bluff you and he hasnt seen you play a hand in hours.

Assuming all this is true, he knows your strong here and probably thinks your not going to fold. I think he has a made hand

^ do you consider calling a raise for information more egregious or less egregious than betting for information? On a scale of 1-10, 10 being terrible is this like a 6-7?

Calling for information is good but I think you need a specific sizing/timing tell or a read that he loves playing back but only fires 1 barrel with his bluff and gives up when called.

For ex, a tag who cbets 80% of thetime but only double barrel with TPGK+ is a great opponent to "call for information", because he will tell you OTT if he has you beat, so calling with middle pair and folding to his turn barrel is exploiting him.

"Calling for information" is terrible if V shoves every turn with his whole range, because his range hasn't changed, he denies all informations (unless as I said, you have a tell).

I think this hand was played well, not many lag can shove OTT with a draw, esp since your range is QJ+-overpairs, he shouldn't expect you to fold much. Calling for information without a specific tell or read is not very good in general thought.

I'm not sure how the average winning hand is relevant to this one hand.

I still think betting the turn of checked to is correct. Yeah, it commits you, but how often does villain take that sort of line with a better hand? Almost never imo.

kekeeke, for what it's worth as a timing tell, V pretty much insta-shoved the turn. I know it's anecdotal evidence but the few times I've insta-shoved I've had the nuts. I plugged that leak and take my time now because I think villains can tell that your over excitement to GII is strong.

Villain had

By the way - let's say I had AA and we know V would play this hand exactly the same with JT and QT. Does that make calling the flop and turn neutral EV?

Also - if we were in V's shoes, what would the optimal way to play this hand with JT and QT be?

I'd check call the flop and turn and fold to a river bet.

As played, It's a fold. and I probably would have folded to the check raise, just too many bad cards and chance to get lost in the hand, calling the check raise lights money on fire if you plan on ever folding

Remember players usually project their playstyle onto their opponents. Do you think this guy would ever fold top pair? I don't think so, so he is assuming you would never fold top pair, and is betting accordingly

Can you elaborate on this? V said after the hand "I can't believe you folded. I thought I was trapping you."

+1

Da ***? O.o

Imagine a hand like this

Flop(20): 7h 8h Qd

Villain bets 15, hero raises to 75

If villain is an OMC, he will say "he must have a set" because an OMC would only raise this flop with a set
If villain is a LAG, he will say "he must be on a flush draw" because a LAG would raise this flop with a draw


So for your hand, a BAD lag dude is never folding a J here and assumes you play the same

Snap call.