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1/2 NL - Nut flush draw 1/2 NL - Nut flush draw

05-20-2010 , 10:11 AM
I just sat down at the table so I don't really have any reads here. I'm looking to see a lot of flops since I feel I can outplay most guys at this game post flop.

Hero (UTG+1): $190
Villain (MP1): $300

Hero is dealt KJ

UTG calls, Hero calls, Villain calls, 3 other calls, SB completes, BB checks

Flop ($16): AT9

SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $15, Villain calls, 3 folds, SB calls, BB folds, UTG folds

Turn ($61): 4

SB checks, Hero checks, Villain bets $75, SB folds, Hero ?

It doesn't feel like I'm getting too much fold equity if I shove.
1/2 NL - Nut flush draw Quote
05-20-2010 , 10:15 AM
There is also a high hand bonus for a royal flush which is around $600.
1/2 NL - Nut flush draw Quote
05-20-2010 , 10:22 AM
I would have kept firing on the turn; as played you now have a tough decision. You don't have the immediate odds to call; however if you think you villian will call a decent size bet on the river if you hit, you can call with implied odds. Your equity for the Royal Flush bonus is only about $14, so that shouldn't be a huge factor in your decision.
1/2 NL - Nut flush draw Quote
05-20-2010 , 10:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by loschuk
SB checks, Hero checks, Villain bets $75, SB folds, Hero ?
I feel you basically gave your hand away with the check. He has a piece and now knows you are drawing, easy for him to feel his hand is best and give you the wrong pot odds to call. Solid play by him imo.

Raising is an interesting choice but I agree you likely have no fold equity because what hand could you have that would ever lead the flop and then check raise the turn?

I would have led the turn for 1/2 pot or so just to control the pot size and keep him unsure of what your hand is. He raises, you can evaluate your pot odds at that point.
1/2 NL - Nut flush draw Quote
05-20-2010 , 11:56 AM
Bet turn.

As played, ick. See the PokerStove below. You need roughly 35% if you think an ace makes up a small part of his range, 40% otherwise. Assuming you have virtually no FE, you are risking $180 to win $240, which clearly doesn't make it. I think you have to fold this, and try to find out if he knows how good of a bet it was.

BUT ... I wonder if the lack of FE is really true. That is, if his range is correct below, pushing on the turn would get him to lay down the smaller pairs, possibly the smaller aces and weaker T's, leaving you with outs against the other hands.

You could shove $95 into a pot of $210, so he has to call with most hands. But if you think he folds 20% of the time, the shove is good, I think.

Spoiler:
Board: As Ts 9d 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.047% 37.05% 00.00% 3146 0.00 { KsJs }
Hand 1: 62.953% 62.95% 00.00% 5346 0.00 { JJ-77, 44, AQs-A2s, KTs-K9s, QTs+, J9s+, T9s, 87s, AQo-A7o, A4o, KTo-K9o, QTo+, J9o+, T9o, 87o }
1/2 NL - Nut flush draw Quote
05-20-2010 , 07:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by loschuk
I feel I can outplay most guys at this game post flop.

.
I don't want to sound harsh, but why say this?

You are getting less than 2 to 1 for the call, and you are out of position so it should be an easy fold.
He likely folds if you bet when you hit the river. If you check when you hit he likely checks.
He may call if you try to bluff.
You played fine until the turn.
1/2 NL - Nut flush draw Quote
05-20-2010 , 07:24 PM
Right up until the "I check the turn" moment this was a hand you had to be willing to go the distance with - a freakin' royal flush draw. No one raises you after your flop bet and you have control going into the turn... and then you check what has to be an absolute blank in the 4. Ummmm, why?

Once villain overbets the pot with his $75 turn bet, you have zero fold equity and certainly the worst of it as a 3/1 dog at best to win (if he has a naked Ace).

The only way I shove is if you get a chance to "run it twice". I don't see how you can just call because villain certainly folds if you improve. Otherwise, kick yourself for limping with K/J to begin with - a classic trouble hand - and then not betting the turn. And fold.
1/2 NL - Nut flush draw Quote
05-21-2010 , 12:25 AM
Easy fold into that pot. There's only $61 and you only have $17 invested. You have approx 12 outs (9 spades + 3 queens) = 24% chance to improve which means you need 3.2:1 to make this call. You are not getting that. This bet says "I've got a hand and I know you are on a draw and I'm gonna make you pay for it" which can be translated "I'm not gonna pay you off if you hit either".
1/2 NL - Nut flush draw Quote

      
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