Hi everyone,
I played This hand yesterday at Foxwoods at a 1/2NL hand.
Effective stack (me) is $385. I have a good TAG image. There were a couple of bad stations that I got involved with, and was seen maximizing value with bets where others would have checked back. Villain is TAG as well but probably misses value on spots, so pretty straight forward.

Table is 10 handed and I have the BTN in the 3 seat, Villain is on my direct left (SB) in the 4 seat.

A couple of players limp in early position and the 9 seat who is one of the stations that i referred to makes it $11, CO calls, I call with 7spade7diamond , Villain in the SB calls, BB folds and the two limpers call, taking 6 players to the flop.

FLOP : ($62)
A34
checks all around

TURN : ($62)
6
Checks to me, I bet $30, Villain calls, everyone else folds.

RIVER : ($102)
8
Villain checks

can I get away here with firing again and turn my 77 into a bluff? Can I credibly represent a flush and try to push a hand like A9-AJ to fold? I don't see him having 57 or a flush given his line but mine i think would be more credible for a straight or flush. What do you think? and what would you bet if you decided to go for it?

Thanks

I don't think you should turn this hand into a bluff for two reasons:

1. You have some equity but don't have any chance of being ahead if he calls a river raise. You could win here without bluffing.
2. You're targeting a relatively small portion of his range with the bluff. I'm assuming he's not going to fold two pair or better, and will have a tough time laying down TPGK as well. So, you're really only targeting Ax, where the x is not an 8, 6, 3 or 2. If you thought that he could lay down two pair to a bet, then it's a different calculus, but I don't try that without a good read.

You can't have AJ or FD because you, normally, should bet on flop (you are BU and the OR checking).
You have Ax(x=2,5,7,8), 55, 77, 99, TT, x2?, x5?
The range is the same as the villain
If you bet likely you will win often

Don't see Ax folding with the given action in the hand. Might get something like 99-TT to fold but that's a pretty small part of his range. Don't think he calls with hands worse than 77 when the flush gets there although it should be considered. So not really getting value from much and not getting too many better hands to fold...looks like a check back spot.

Better to take showdown in this spot

This is the crux of the question for me, I had a sense that i was beating part of his range but was also trying to fold the bottom part of his river range that beats me. without strong reads this probably too ambitious. He is not folding 2 pairs or sets but I don't think his range has too many of those, can I still fold some AX hands though.

I ck this back 100% here but if u want to fold out the bottom part if his range u can accomplish this by just betting small.. That being said u are ahead if enough of his non A range to just take a showdown here

Part of bluffing is telling a good story. You need a villain follow the story because it makes sense to him, not you. You don't have a good one with the action. You don't have Ax, 2 pair or a set ever in this villain's mind. You would have bet. You didn't have a big pair on the turn, because you would have bet harder. To the average player's thinking, you have exactly what you do have, a medium pair.

At 1/2, you'll get looked up too often to make this profitable. Better hands will call and worse ones will fold.

Now if you had checked back the turn, then bet the river, it would be a different story and much closer. You could make a $50 bet and be sure you'll get folds from bigger pairs. He'll raise you with an actual big flush, so you can just fold.

The bigger lesson here is that you were asking yourself "What" instead of "How" concerning this pot. Ask yourself more "How" questions.

Thanks for the comments. Can you please elaborate on this? what sort of questions? Also when you say if i checked turn behind and bet 50 otr then what would that line credibly represent?

I think you have the best hand so often that you don't need to bluff, and the times that you do he isn't likely to fold, so definitely check.

You're asking yourself, "What should I do each street." You should be asking yourself, "How do I win this pot?" In this case, you called pf and a FD shows up with an ace.

There's two ways to win this pot. First, represent that I have an ace or a set and don't want to see a FD hit. The second is to represent I have a FD and am just waiting for it to hit. TBH, in a 6 way pot, my odds of representing an ace and winning is near zero. Somebody will have something that can stick around. It is going to cost a lot of chips to win essentially a whiffed flop. I have to win it almost a majority of the time, which just doesn't happen often.

So I'm left with a strategy of representing a non-nut FD. With 6 players, that isn't appealing either. If the hand can get to HU, then I might pursue that. In a multi-way, the chances are too great that somebody really has the goods. Since I hold a diamond, the odds of hitting the FD diminishes.

I'm left with no real viable strategy to win the pot. Therefore, I'm looking to check it down, happy to fold it if someone else has interest. By asking "how," you starting thinking about your strategy over multiple streets instead of one street. You played this one street at a time. You checked on the flop because you had nothing, you bet on the turn because you thought everyone else might fold by representing a good pair and on the river you want to bet to represent a made flush. It smells bad. Good players will recognize you have nothing and even bad players will sense something isn't right and will call it down.

If I check twice with a flush draw on the board and bet when it hits on the river, what do you think I have?

Thanks for the detailed answer venice. That is a great post and it was very helpful to have a detailed glimpse at your thought process in here. This hand brings up a leak that I might not have even been aware of which is I have more of a proactive plan as you describe when I am the preflop raiser or at least the initiative in the hand but not so much when I am just the caller wherei take more of a reactive mode. I will need to put more work into making my lines credible when attempting a bluff.

I'm not really inclined to bet the turn at all.

Factors that would make me want to bet:
- If we had fewer players than 6 post-flop.
- If the table was less stationy that you suggest.

The primary goal of betting the turn is to get hands that hold a card 8 through K to fold; there's definitely a benefit to that. You could scoop the pot on the turn from a group of hands that collectively have quite a bit of equity against you. Basically, you might have the best hand, but you lose on the river something like 50% time.

Unfortunately, even one caller on the turn suggests you're behind (so you really are bluffing on the turn, in essence, though sometimes you do have the best made hand), and you probably won't get a fold later in the hand.

As played, you should probably check the river back and lose.

Though I can very much see the temptation to toss in a bet of $80 against a TAG given run-out.

If you must bet the turn, I'd make it $40. $30 is just too weak, and against this TAG, I think the flop check + weak turn bet make the river a very easy river to bluff catch if you do choose to bluff.

If you bet $40+ on the turn, I think you could have a more credible story... checking the flop with a flush or straight draw is not absurd given the Axx texture (you have very little fold equity against stations on this board - they love calling Ax and don't fold, so checking the flop behind and then betting the turn when checked to again is not really that inconsistent with a strong hand by the river). A set like 66 or 88 is possible, too, though you just make 66 less likely given turn bet sizing.

I also wouldn't give the TAG in the SB that much credit unless you know otherwise - a larger river bet on this run-out in what was a 6-way pot looks scary, and I wouldn't worry too too much about telling the "perfect story" against someone who might not be able to hand read.

On the other hand, and what I think is more important, I wouldn't think he's going to fold top pair often enough, especially on the river where your fold equity is the least because it's the final bet and he knows he won't face any more bets.

So yeah, just check it back.

Yeah, and no one is folding the turn with , straight draws, gut shots, made hands, etc. You just don't have a ton of fold equity.

If it's a great table to value bet people mercilessly, it's not a good table to fire 77 on this turn.

great post! Thanks Willyoman

It's 1/2 so if you want to bluff the flush on the river, I think you're more likely to get a call by having a line like check call, check call, then bet river when the flush completes.

In 1/2 you have to think like the other players, which is playing passive until you hit your hand, of course there will be times when the villain will pick you off but most times I think your line will be more believable at 1/2. Hope this makes sense.