BB loose-passive middle aged woman $600
UTG+1 Hero $500
UTG+2 tight-passive mid-20s guy $275
7-handed


Hero table-standard opens to $10, UTG+2 minraises, BB and Hero call.

Flop T96r, pot $61

BB checks, Hero bets $45, UTG+2 minraises, BB shoves



Looking for community opinion on BB range, which obviously becomes exponentially more player-dependent as your sample size against her grows.

How narrow is your default/aggregate range for such a villain, considering your sample size against her is probably less than two hours, all in this same session? First time you've seen her do anything that could be considered spazzy, when you've seen her *raise zero flops so far* but have seen her call around 6 or 8 draws, weird one-pairs, etc, that got shown down after improvement? She's like 67/0 preflop so far, including once showing down a T5o that called a big preflop 3-bet.

Obviously it's an extremely strong line. Is it a fundamental mistake to put her range at made straight, all sets, all two-pairs, and a discounted percentage of JJ+? How much are you discounting JJ+, and is all of that discounting due to preflop action?

Mistake to leave out a discounted amount of top pairs and pairs+straight draws? Or mistake to include much more than the nuts/maybe sets?

Top set no good, clear nuts.

Loose passive shoves from BB over a bet and min-raise? I would put her range as sets and straights. Depending on the player there is some chance of two pair/over pairs here, but I would consider it unlikely. Without specific history I would dismiss over pairs entirely, and I would discount two pair heavily given the action.

Her range for calling the $20 preflop is very wide. Her range for shoving over the bet and min-raise on the flop is mostly absurdly strong.

She has two pair+ here pretty often i think. Theres a ton of value combos she smacks on thus board, calling a minraise from the bb. Not calling unless i have a set.

I never see loose passive middle age women ever do this play on a bluff. I really think top set or 7/8 for the straight is likely. I would fold all over pairs, and two pair hands, and probably even middle and bottom set here often. I have to disagree with those that think that BB's range includes two pair type hands. I think she would just flat those to the raise more often than 3 bet.

Your opponent's play has negative expected value if she's holding two-pair, a set or a straight because she most likely will only get called by sets (some of which might be bigger) or a straight since even most bad players will fold over-pairs or even two pair hands to covering check-raise shoves over medium-sized pots by middle-aged women. However, if she knows that you'll fold to her pressure because of her image, pot-size and her line then it's possible that she might make this play with a hand like J10. There is of course the possibility that she knows you'll be thinking that this play makes her hand look big and so is unlikely to be that strong because who wants to give away so much value and so you'll or UTG+2 will act accordingly and call. If she's that type of thinking player then she might also make this play with the straight or a set. Knowing your opponent is crucial here and so with such a small data set folding all draws, single pair hands and a bottom two pair hand is the correct play. What hand were you holding? Did the UTG+2 player call with an over-pair? Did everyone fold and she showed something like J10?

If you are lucky she might be bluffing 5% of the time here or something, but there is no way you're getting the 40% or so you need to call. Probably folding bottom set here

edit: technically, preflop is not a minraise

UTG+2 must have raised to $20, $18 would have been the minimum.

Yeah, you're beat here. Preflop, she could have almost ATC. On the flop, with the check/shove, it's a made monster hand: sets/straight. So fold and move on to the next hand.

I would seriously consider folding pocket T's here.

When a loose passive makes an aggressive move like this they have the goods, doubly so when they're facing a bet and a raise before they spaz. This is 78 99% of the time.

I'd say TT is a call but 99 is a fold.

It really should only be sets + straights.

x2

She shoves $500 effective on the flop with rainbow board? I'd be surprised if it's ever anything but the nuts....I'd probably tank for a while with TT and do some math, but probably folding everything else.

Yea, if we were shorter it might make sense to call. 7 outs on the turn, 10 on the flop so we're *around* 34% to win even against the made straight. But that's assuming that none of our outs are gone with UTG+2's minraise.

Wrong price. Wrong spot.

Lol at sets.

From this player, this is ONLY 78. If she had a set, she would wait for the board to pair.

AND you have UTG still to act (although he certainly has an overpair).

Fold.

Whatever she has, she has a hand that she thinks is a good hand, but may not necessarily mean a good hand to us with the given situation. She could show up with anything from AA-JJ, 2 pair, sets, and a straight. I think there is some small but non-zero percentage that she shows up with an overpair and I can pretty easily see this type of player overplaying 2 pair this way. So if I was going to put her on a range it would be something like heavily discounted overpairs, somewhat discounted 2 pairs, all sets with none discounted and a straight with none discounted.

This is good analysis if she's Kathy Leibert, but if she's your average female player this is just almost never 3rd level and above thinking. Your leveling yourself here. She believes she has a big hand, and without a specific read that she over values two pair, this is just always a set or straight. I have leveled myself quite a few times over the years in similar spots against women who I thought just can't have the nuts in one spot or another to now be positive they almost always do. You'll save more money, putting them on very nitty ranges in this spot, trust me.

I agree with you in that the correct play in this situation against this player at these stakes is to fold (which I would do even with an over-pair) but OP seems to be asking about other possible lines in this situation and so I wrote on some possible scenarios. There is a very low likelihood that this player is value bet shoving (in her mind) with 10X (single pair hands) so why is she shoving? Most likely she's got a monster and thinks someone will call with worse.

I think this is really important and I'm surprised by the amount of people who are positive this is 87. She's playing almost every hand and we don't think she does this with sets? Really? A set is the nuts for this type of player. She called a 3b with pre with T5o! She wants to hit a big hand and get her money in! Her range pre is almost any two cards so if she has T9 T6 or 96 I wouldn't be surprised either!

I weight her range more heavily towards 87 and sets for sure, but she has two pair here sometimes.

I'd call with 87 and TT. 77 and 66 are close. 77 is probably a call and 66 a puke fold