Just sat down at this table 2 hands ago because my last one broke.

Villain is Asian guy in his 50s sitting on a massive stack comprised of mostly black and green chips (he was the only one with them at the table).

Hero is 20 year old Caucasian wearing athletic clothing.

Effective stacks are: $580 (He covers me)

UTG limps, Hero opens for $12 UTG+2 with AA , CO calls, villain in SB calls, BB calls.

Flop ($46): J 7 3
Checks to hero who bets $35, fold, SB calls, fold.

Turn ($116): 2
SB checks, hero bets $80, SB calls.

River ($276): 4
SB checks, hero bets $140, SB raises all in, hero calls $325 more.

Unless you think V is a fish who would overvalue AJ, KJ i dont really like our hand. His ranged is pretty polarized on the river. it seems like either sets or 56/A5 (if he decided to float flop) or air. Theres not really and hands in his value range that we beat. we're getting roughly 2.2 - 1. i dont think hes bluffing more than 30% here given the strength we've show (our hand is fairly face up). Its probably a tough fold on the river. apart from that, your line is fine.

You would need a specific read that this player is nuts for a call here to be profitable. There is no busted anything on this board he could be bluffing with, it would need to be complete air. I think your bet sizing looks good for targeting a Jx range which is the only thing you can get multiple streets of value against on this board. B/f river.

Only thing plausible that you beat is an air bluff and AJ. And really, if he has AJ, is he more likely to raise the flop or raise the river? Unless the guy is a total maniac, he either hit his gutshot or he called J4 from the small blind and made two pair on the end. Set is possible, but less likely. I think he's looking to get it in on turn if he flopped the set.

I've got a question... What range are we giving villain after the turn? I see people advocating for the bet / fold but could we have checked the river behind? The only range I'd put villain on would be QQ+, maybe AJ or KJ or pp that made a set for him calling down both flop and turn. Villain likely won't call river bet with AJ or KJ, may call with QQ+ except I don't think villain had that as they'd play the hand differently which leaves us with sets or a J4 type hand that hit two pair that we don't expect. We check as there may be little value in betting and if we are beat we save money and if we win we know we can value bet villain on all 3 streets next time.

I may be a nit but just my 2 cents. We may be giving up some value by checking back river if we have best hand but I think the information we'd gather from knowing he's a calling station is worth more.

Not sure if I like river bet or not. I think there's probably some stuff we can get value from, big jacks mainly. If we do bet river, definitely making it smaller since most of the time he's going to fold his JT/JQ type stuff and we're really only targeting things like AJ-KJ. Seems like a pretty narrow range to try and get value from, so the smaller we make it the more he can call.

Fold to the raise obviously, we're never good here unless we have a specific read. Bluffing here would be pretty suicidal after we raise EP and take a b/b/b line.

If you're gonna bet the river it's gotta be a bet/fold and a small bet that doesn't commit you and targets AJ/KJ for a crying call. A $100 bet is probably about as good as you can ask for, and if forced to fold you've put in 40% of effective stacks which is slightly more than is considered "okay" (1/3 effective stacks).

I just don't think we can go for stacks with a 1-pair hand while nearly 300bb deep.

Only way I do it us with a solid read the V is awful and overvalues top pair enormously.

Without that read I use position to my advantage by betting flop and turn (as in OP) and check back river.

Think about it - if villain is the type to check/call 3 streets with JX here then we will get his stack sooner or later anyway. If we check back river and see JX then we start to think we can get 3 streets in future. If we check and see a set then we save ourselves some chips and start to think villain's range for calling big turn bets is quite tight and we likely can't get 3 streets of big value bets with 1-pair vs this opponent.

Value bet/folding small on the river is not synonymous with playing for 300 BB stacks, Rage. There's no reason to think we don't have the best hand.

Checking the river is a pretty big mistake (as is bet/calling).

+1. You correctly went for value on the river and should have bet a little less. Bet/fold. No one is running a double float oop c/r river bluff at 1/2.

I can see arguments for checking the turn. Weak Jx and maybe TT-88 will call a river bet, but fold the turn expecting another barrel on the river. It's still a bet/fold on the river.

Yeah I'm quite happy to bet/fold too but I don't think a check behind is terrible against an unknown player. We just have no idea how he reacts to a river bet here so even b/f small on river could be a mistake if it turns out villain is crazy bluffer and takes a small bet as an invitation to bluff shove.

Alternatively or in addition to scenario above: We already put in $127 so if villain is prone to thinking in absolute $$$ terms he may well struggle to make a call vs any reasonable sized bet on the river without a hand that beats us.

So I guess what I'm saying is reopening the betting carries a risk of us making a mistake that could cost us a lot of chips. On the other hand checking behind definitely gives up a bit of value vs a lot of opponents. However, checking behind guarantees a showdown and extra info on our currently unknown deepstacked OOP opponent.

I admit I play pretty conservatively until I get a handle on my opponent's tendencies. Maybe it is overcautious but bear in mind I get a lot less cautious as I gather more information.

In answer to "what range does V have after calling turn?"

I just don't think we can be too accurate in our ranging since we have no reads. If he turns out to be a nit his turn call could be sets only. If he's a whale he could have 7X+

What I do know is we look like we have a strong hand, likely TPTK+ given our line. That means a lot of villains will check river expecting us to bet again on this dry and unthreatening board. Even though V is OOP we aren't really getting a lot of information out of him in this hand and therefore I tend to proceed with caution.

As I'm sure you can imagine this hand has been on my mind all day and I'm favoring the b/f line. I don't think my bet sizing is too terrible as I think the stations playing 1/2 will call bigger than they should. *Calls 1/2 players stations after posting about calling off 150 BB with 1 pair* But its most definitely a fold to the shove. He's almost never bluffing and I don't beat any of his value range except MAYBE KK if he tried to slow play it pre and then went crazy.

I sometimes get trapped in the mind set of thinking I'm priced in so I must call but in this situation, though I'm getting an ok price I don't think I'm beating his holdings nearly enough to call.

Rage, if you wanna pot control do it with QJ. AA is your big money winner for a reason.

It isn't pot control. I'm taking the risk free showdown and the information that provides.

If V has weak JX I know I can cbet him to death over the next few hours and get his stack anyway so what do I really lose by checking?

$$$

You gotta get max value brah. If he is a fish who calls down three streets with Jx, we need to get his money before someone else at the table does. These spots only come few and far between. We don't get dealt aces every hand.

I agree we lose $100 by checking if he is a fish. What if he isn't a fish?

How often is a random deepstacked unknown who l/c utg and c/c 2 big bets a fish with JX and how often is he a tight player with a set?

It's the nuts fold OTR, only good thinking players on the same skill level as you or better would ever x-raise bluff rivers @ LLSNL.

If this guy x-raises rivers w/o the betting lead maybe exercise pot control OTR next time and figure out his turn tendencies.