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1/2 NL: KQs flush draw

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06-22-2015 , 04:25 PM

ThrirtyThree

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 278

1/2 Table.
V(180, BTN): mid 20s White army. Just sat down like 15 mins. Tight side.
Hero(500,BB): Lose image.

BTN straddles, Folds to BTN. BTN raises to 20. SB calls, Hero(BB) calls with KsQs.

Flop(60): As7s3h

SB checks, Hero bets $50(Build the pot and think it may end here). BTN tanks call(20-30 sec).

Turn(160):6d

What should I do now? V only has 110 left. C/C? C/F? or Should I put him all in?

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06-22-2015 , 04:50 PM

johnnyBuz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 7,563

If BTN is tight and is raising to 10 BB pre, what range are you assigning him? I'm not saying to fold KQs, but you need to seriously consider hand domination and the fact that you will be OOP. I don't like your (oversized) bet on the flop because it's too likely V has an A in his hand, and if so, you are not getting him off of it. A $30 flop bet is just as effective as $50 here. V will call if he has an Ace and fold if he doesn't.

As played, V isn't folding to a turn shove and if he shoves you are not getting the right odds to draw to your flush. So you're SOL.

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06-22-2015 , 05:04 PM

Whoarofl

enthusiast

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 53

I would be thinking...

He has 110 behind in a 160 pot, hard to get him to fold, especially if he thinks I'm a bit loose. I'd imagine he tanked on flop considering if he was willing to go all out with this hand, by calling, he's willing. No reason to hope he's got KK QQ and will fold. I'd C/F here. If he checks, I'd consider shoving, but until I know more about this player, and how much of a call station he is, I won't shove. Amateurs love acting, that 20-30 second tank just may be a slow rolled set.

Hey, I'm not the best player here. Just giving my thoughts. I'd C/F however. Maybe he checks back and you see that free card.

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06-22-2015 , 05:13 PM

CamNewton3

grinder

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 493

I think you've got more fold equity than that, you guys don't think he can fold a medium/weak ace? Second pair or draws might also fold. And you don't need that much fold equity so...

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06-22-2015 , 05:23 PM

johnnyBuz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 7,563

Quote:

Originally Posted by CamNewton3

I think you've got more fold equity than that, you guys don't think he can fold a medium/weak ace? Second pair or draws might also fold. And you don't need that much fold equity so...

How many "tight" players are raising A5 to 10 BB pre? We have the nut flush draw. What other draws are possibly out there that a tight player would have in his holdings? None.

Last edited by johnnyBuz; 06-22-2015 at 05:28 PM.

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06-22-2015 , 05:23 PM

Whoarofl

enthusiast

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 53

Sure Cam, that could happen. I feel there's too many hands in V's range besides mid aces or a 78s, and shoving would be the expensive way of finding out.

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06-22-2015 , 05:28 PM

The Rumor

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 9,559

I think you can bet materially less on the flop and accomplish the same thing (fold out non aces).

You really should have had a plan for the turn before you bet the flop. You got called by the guy who raised pre.

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06-22-2015 , 05:57 PM

CamNewton3

grinder

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 493

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnnyBuz

How many "tight" players are raising A5 to 10 BB pre? We have the nut flush draw. What other draws are possibly out there that a tight player would have in his holdings? None.

We don't really know how tight this player is, he sat down only 15 minutes ago, I think I am thight and there is a couple low ace/draws that I would have here.

But, youre probably right, shoving is probably not the best option. A smaller bet on the flop would for sure have been a better move tho.

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06-22-2015 , 09:27 PM

Nozsr

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 1,722

Quote:

Originally Posted by CamNewton3

I think you've got more fold equity than that, you guys don't think he can fold a medium/weak ace? Second pair or draws might also fold. And you don't need that much fold equity so...

Our Villain straddled, that's ATC.

He raised his own straddle, that's not.

How much fold equity do you think we have on this board in this situation?

20%?
40%?
60%?

The approximate answer to that question determines what we should do.

Assuming we have only 9 outs (we could have more against a JJ- pocket pair), and assuming maybe only 30% fold equity, IMO we could make as much as an 80% pot sized bet (we can't because of stack sizes) with OK EV results, YMMV.

The true question is, do you think we have 30% fold equity?

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06-22-2015 , 10:54 PM

#10

johnnyBuz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 7,563

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nozsr

The true question is, do you think we have 30% fold equity?

I think our FE is closer to 0% than 30%. The A

is out on the flop and we have the next two outs for the nut flush (K

). The most likely hand V has here is AK and AQ. I don't see KK peeling a nearly pot sized bet (which puts 40% of his stack in the middle) only to fold when OP fires again. We also have a blocker to KK making that hand less likely (same with QQ). That leaves JJ with the J

backdoor flush draw which is also highly unlikely to peel this flop.

I think when you really consider V's range here our FE is somewhere between 0% and 5%.

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06-22-2015 , 11:08 PM

#11

timmay28

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 2,845

fold pre, c/c flop

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06-23-2015 , 01:58 AM

#12

PajamaBottoms

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 210

"tight" "TAG" players are straddling? I guess the game is really good.

ANYWAY my math might be a bit off but this looks right.
I think you only need him to fold around 20% of the time when you shove 110 into 160 with 20% equity.

0=x(160)+(1-x)((.20)(270)+(.8)(-110))

You win 160 when he folds x% of the time
When he doesn't fold, 20% you win $270 and 80% you lose $110.

x=17.5%

So, if you can figure out some hands he'll fold maybe its OK.

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06-23-2015 , 05:13 AM

#13

6betfold

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 1,388

Does anyone like a c/r on the flop?

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