Hero is a reg in the game and has decent history with vilain, I would assume he see's me as tight and aggressive, but knows that I will def open up in later positions.

Villain is a semi competent reg that is drinking vodka red bulls tonite. I don't think he's good enough to donk with sets. He's decent but I'm sure that his post flop limping range is really weak and wide

$1/$2 NL 9 handed

4 limps, hero makes it $15 on the btn KQ 2 limp callers from EP and MP

flop($52): K73
villains donks $25, fold, I call

turn($102): K73J
villain donks $45, I call

river($192): K73JA
villain doesn't hesitate very much and bets $100 on the river, hero...

As I said before, I don't think he's good enough to donk with a set, but I guess it's possible. He's not bad enough to limp with AK

What else would you like to know about villain?

http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/5691608

Sigh fold. All Ax bluffs get there on the river. Don't see V double barreling here and he's not value betting a K here I don't think...

Like Ahxh ?

Sent from my ADR6425LVW using 2+2 Forums

^Yes.
Hero folds.

Call.

What are stack sizes?
edit: just looked at the link and saw stack sizes

If his stack was $200 I like shoving the turn. Leading like this seems to often be weak top pairs and flush draws and I think there are enough of both in his range to justify shoving this turn.

Given that we are deeper, I think I like the call. We have good equity vs his range and there are many safe rivers for us. It's unfortunate that he will always be able to value bet us on blank rivers and we won't be able to value bet him as often. And he may not bluff with his all of his missed draws so we don't get extra value there. This makes me think we need a lot more going for us than just a little bit of +EV in bare equity.

I am too tired right now to delve much more into it but it would be interesting to see how our EV changes with 1. different river cards. 2. villain bluffing frequencies. 3. checking frequencies (when his twopair checks because he's scared we hit the flush, saving us money). 4. etc...


On the river, I think this is a fold.

Just to give you an idea of what kind of rivers are good for us. Obv hearts and Aces, but Tens are bad too. Against everything else, calling another bet on the river is probably fine against most opponents.

+1.

Assuming he is good enough to value bet AX, this is still a call.

His value range is AT-A2(7 combos) and KJo(6 combos) so 13 total.

His bluffing range is T9, T8, 98, 86, 65, 64, 54. So roughly 7 combos.

So if he can value bet AX he'll have 65% value hands and 35% bluffs. If he doesnt have AX in his value betting range this becomes a snap call.

Also raise flop for value if his donking range is weak.

Meant to post this above:
If he his betting the river with all of his top pair + hands and all of his no showdown value missed draws, we only have about 25% equity on this river. He would have to be turning all of his KT type hands into blocking bet/bluffs here for a call to be ok on this river and I just don't see many people doing that.

Thanks a lot for all the input and time you put into this hand so far.

The games I play in, the max pot limit is $800 no matter how many people are in the hand. We both had over $400, so we're effectively just under 200 bb deep.

Raising the flop may have been a good idea.

I agree, a T on the river would have also been a bad card.

As far as bluffing frequencies go, do live small stakes regs really just bomb off 3 streets with total air often enough to make this a call?

Let's say the river wasn't an A, or a , but something like a 5 or a 2. Then are we calling if he takes the same line? Because I don't think that the A is too much of a scare card, and I don't think he's good enough to v bet with Ax, being said I don't think he's good(bad?) enough to bomb 3 streets with total air either.

Im really raising this turn as his equity drops significantly from the flop to the turn.and him being competent is the perfect.time.to let him now exactly where he is in the hand. However if we raise the flop and he happens to have AH3H I feel like hes gonna click you back qnd turn your raise with top pair into a bluff.

I play a lot of 1/2 and im folding this river all day but calling all rivers that arent heats or aces.

I call pretty quickly on a 2 or a 5 river. by the river your getting laid almost 3-1 on a call. I definitely see $200NLers either bluff or value bet here incorrectly enough to make that a call. I can't imagine the math would disagree. Did he showdown Ahxh?

i probably would call tbh

also he probably isnt aware of your play style, hes playing 1/2 and is horrible

i would probably call and expect to be good about half the time

Well I folded, but I talked to him after the hand and he said he had 45o for the gutshot. I actually believe him, the way our conversation went. He had had several more vodka red bulls since the hand when he told me.

so 5 high? lol, what a line for opponent, redbull gives you wings!

and vodka gives you balls to bluff

i believe him to, i feel 1/2 pot bets on the end are always bluffs in this spot from fish. theyll bet bigger with their monsters which hes representing

yes he probably wouldve made this same smaller bet with Ax of hearts but that is only one hand in his range

easy call after you underreped your hand all the way

Grab a pair and Cawl