V1- UTG - $225, REG, played with before, Tight range preflop
Hero CO - $215, TAG, raising on button %80. Not limping pre, playing tight
V2 Button - $800, LAG thinking player, running good saw him flop trips the previous hand.



V1 utg limps, action folds to hero in CO with KK who raises to $16, V2 flat calls, V1 folds.


Flop Pot=$34

J83

I lead out for $21 , V2 calls. (I think he knows I will C-bet here %90 of the time regardless of the flop)

Turn Pot=$76

8

I lead out for $38, V2 calls

River Pot=$152

4

I lead out for $50, V2 re-raises to $150

Heros play here? What is V2's range here?

Pretty gross but he'd never turn Jx into a river bluff and T9 would've raised the turn if he wanted to get frisky. And people just never raise/bluff rivers. Especially a hand with showdown value. So we gotta fold...

Also, bet a little bigger on the river, like $75.

You just 3 barrelled OOP so I dont expect him to thin value bet anything here. His range then is boats, 8x or air and its much more value heavy imo. He probably played trips or a boat this way.

On the river his range consists of ...

Flushes like A3/53/QT,T9. Trips is possible with a wide range of hands. Missed hands include only Jx and T9 and air.

Flush: discounted as villain may have raised the turn.
Trips: quite reasonable hand.
Missed hands and air: this is up to your reads, but why are these hands flat calling the turn with less than a pot sized bet left for the river?

Which leads me to two questions ...

-why do you bet the river?
-are your stack sizes in the OP correct?

the turn card is cause to pause against this villain who is flatting pre with a wide range of suited connects that this flop and turn hit or even suited A8/K8 type hands etc. That said I think checking the turn for pot control is probably over cautious, weak and we miss some value....idk....on the other side you can still assign J's, 910 etc that you can still get value you from that you are ahead of on the turn so it's probably fine.

On the river though I personally would check call. I don't think there is many hands out there we beat that can stand up to a third barrell against a "thinking player". Maybe only AJ and I guess KJ. It gives him a chance to incorrectly value own himself if he has a jack, or even turn a missed 910 that he missed on into a bluff. It gives the appearance that we have given up and makes him more likely to bet smaller if he in fact has a hand we lose to. I don't know with your stack size any proper value you bet of say 80 is pretty much committing you to the hand so just check call I think.

I don't really get why we are barreling the river. What is the value range you think villain has here if he is a "thinking LAG"?

I honestly like a larger flop and turn bet 3/4- pot on flop and 3/4 psb on turn. As played this is a crying call. His range he is repping is JJ and 33 and 88 maybe even a oddly add AA I think it's possible. Stuff you beat has a Jx or QQ. I just don't see many back door flushes in his range as the 8c is out here and the Jc is as well. Unless he floated with AKc or AQc but just seems so unlikely.

Do we really think V is ever raising river with Jx or QQ? That seems like wishcasting not actual range construction.

Look, the board just made everything. If he's raising this river, it's either to bluff you out or to get value from your AA-JJ/AJ type of hand that you are repping. His small sizing leans value.

River is a fold as played AINEC, he's got flush/boat/8x a lot and he's milking your face up hand for a call.

Also, TripleH brings up a good point about stacks: you're short enough (supposedly) that he doesn't have much room to bluff you, making his range tilt towards value hands here.

Honestly against a good player we should probably check turn because he can play the turn pretty perfectly as our range is capped most of the time to 1 pair hands. He can choose to rep the 8 and bluff raise us or find a hero fold with Jx or let us value own ourselves on river which is what happened here. If we check river though it's gotta be to check/fold because AJ is probably the worst hand he can go for thin value with.

I don't see him making a bluff OTR, it smells too much like a raise for value here.

I also agree: Why bet the river? What range is just calling that you can beat?

If you are cbetting 90%+ of the time, that is too much. You need to dial that down to about 60%-70% of the time. You'll want to mix in some TP/OP hands that you check on the flop.

My general rule of thumb is that I'm looking for two streets of value against a thinking player with TP/OP HU. Thinking players don't put most of their stack in with TP****tykicker. I'd check the flop or turn.

As played, few LLSNL players can bluff raise the river. Easy fold.

Exactly