1/2 NL. Four hours into session. 9 Handed. Table leans tight, but definitely a fair amount of loose play and bluffs.

Hero ($400, BTN): Hero has a very aggressive image to villain. Villain probably sees hero as slightly more tight than loose, but still doesn't give hero a whole lot of credit. Hero has been playing pretty well; his stack has been fluctuating a little bit (as low as $100 early, as high as $500).

Villain ($300, MP1): Villain is a very arrogant, but losing player. Hero and villain play together at least once a week. Villain has a good amount of money because of his profession, but over the year hero and villain have played together, hero would say villain loses twice for every one time he wins. Villain is the guy that always has something to say about everything, views himself as a very advanced player, thinks he's a king at reading, only shows his bluffs or his "hero lay downs," regularly talks strategy at the table and whenever someone makes the wrong fold or call, he always makes a point to say, "how did you do that?! I am folding/calling there every single time!" Villain's play fluctuates between loose and tight, but he's usually playing looser at a loose table and tighter at a tight table; overall he's a little more loose than tight and plays too many hands.

OTTH

Folds around to villain who limps, CO limps, and hero looks up to K 10 who raises to $14. Only villain calls.

Flop ($33) A 7 3

Villain checks and hero c-bets $17, which hero calls.

Turn ($67) K

Villain checks and hero checks back (bad check?)

River ($67) 9

Villain leads out for $75. Hero?

I am perplexed.

When V calls the flop, I'm thinking he has an A since the board is bone dry.

But an A has no reason to overbet the river this way.

He shouldn't have a lot of flushes in his range. OTOH, he shouldn't have a lot of overbets in his range either.

54c makes sense. Double gutter OTF turns into BD flush and then flush. Maybe something like 65c or 42c if he's into considering BD draws for flop calls.

Overall, I can't put him on hand that called the flop that has any reason to overbet the river. I don't think he calls with a 7 or 3 and even if he did, he probably doesn't always overbet them. Same for PP. Definitely not expecting a reverse float with air.

My first thought was a WTF call, but I think folding is better.


Edit: PS, I like the turn check. The flop call tends to be an A in which case we're way behind. If it's not an ace, we're probably pretty far in front. I doubt a bet is either making a bigger pot for ourselves or denying V significant equity.

Bet smaller on the flop. He's folding for 15 or 13 the hands that are supposed to fold. good check on the turn, you have a medium strength hand. Fold river. Youre pretty far down in your range, you probably check back some aces on the turn and its an overbet. even if he is bluffing you dont have to call very often

I’d have bet the turn too. It keeps your range stronger. You don’t give V a free card with a gutterball or pair plus backdoor combo or PP. If he calls twice then leads river you know you’re beat.

V can still have a bunch of backdoor FD combos that got there or 79/A7/A9/A3/77/33/99, even AK. I’d probably fold river if I played it this way. But I would have bet $35-40 on turn

That's exactly what I was thinking when this situation happened. He hasn't made too many overbets that I've seen, and while I fully believed he had an ace on bone dry flop, the overbet lead on the river was very confusing.

I could be completely wrong in my philosophy, but I never bet less than 1/2 pot OTF and I will absolutely never bet less than I raised it pre flop OTF. I'm not saying you're wrong and I'm right, but I personally do not see any use for this technique.

Thank you for the insight. I'm still conflicted as to whether I should've fired the turn or not. I think it could go either way, but I completely see where you are coming from, and I don't think it's a bad move by any means.

I usually check this turn, wanting to get to a cheap showdown. I don't think V's call enough on this board without an ace (or better) to make betting worth it here. Maybe I like pot-controlling too much?

AP, I probably fold the river. I don't think V has enough bluffs in his range to make it a profitable call. But I'm pretty confused by his river bet. All his medium hands probably check the river wanting to get to showdown, so it's really air/weak hand OR strong hand. I think there are more TP/set/flush combos than small PPs/missed straight draws here.