The game is $1-$2 blind no limit hold'em and effective stacks are $300.

I'm two off the button and open for $7 with two red 3's. A very loose bad player calls on the button and so do both blinds.

The flop is 7s 4c 3c. They check to me and I bet $20 into the $25 pot. The button calls, small blind folds and the big blind check raises to $60. He is a long time winning professional player on the tightish side.

The pot will be $163 after I call the $40 and I'll have $233 left with the bad player still behind me.

I don't want to allow anyone to draw cheaply so it's pretty clear to me that I need to re-raise. My decision is how much. Any reasonable amount should get rid of the third player, but how do I handle the check-raiser? I know that he will view a re-raise from me as very likely to be a big overpair.

Is there a way to keep from getting broke if my hand is no good now? Can I leave enough behind that I can fold on fourth if a really bad card comes and he moves in? Thanks for any thoughts.

I think I like calling better. If we are gonna raise, I like shoving.

We won't much like a "really bad card" meaning a 5, 6 or club.

Because we think the big blind has either a straight draw or a flush draw, or both.

We also might not like a 4 or 7 if the big blind has two pair.

But he can't have BOTH and we don't know which it is.

He might also have a set, where we only have one out. But if we make our decision based on him having a set, that's too MUBSy.

If he already has a straight, GG him, but we have redraws.

We ought to call if we think the bad player will call AND if we have the balls to shove/call it down no matter what falls on the turn or river.

If we shove now, I like it. We are probably ahead.

I don't think that that is the right question to ask. The right question to ask is: Is there a +EV line to take even if someone has a straight now?

And the answer is, yes. Don't make anyone fold. Your hand has more than 33% equity in a 3-way pot even you give one of the Villains the nuts.

Board: 7s 4c 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.696% 35.55% 00.15% 963 4.00 { 33 }
Hand 1: 28.276% 25.47% 02.81% 690 76.00 { Ac6c }
Hand 2: 36.028% 33.22% 02.81% 900 76.00 { 6h5h }

Came in to post this. Call now and evaluate turn.

Thank you all for your replies. In my original post I assumed that I needed to re-raise here on the flop and was asking, "how much?" I got four responses and it was all but unanimous that calling was best. Yikes!!! I hope that you'll help me understand why.

Putting the unpleasantness of set under set aside, I can see from the equity calculation that au4all showed, that it would be fine to get any amount in right now, as long as it's three handed. But I'm unclear on how that matters for future monies on future streets. I'm just not sure how much I benefit from letting any more cards come off with my hand and this amount of money behind.

If I just call I'm giving the player behind me 5-1 immediate odds and nearly 11-1 (or more) implied. And if I've got the check raiser beat I'm letting him draw for free. (I'm estimating his range at between 6-5 and 2-1 favorite that he is drawing here.)

I'm trying to figure out where I might be most off the track by wanting to re-raise rather than call. Here are four ideas I came up with ranked in importance:

1) Overvaluing the notion of "protecting" the amount that's already in the middle

2) Undervaluing future money to be won (either by value betting myself, bluff catching or calling my opponents' misguided value bets)

3) Undervaluing that if I get outdrawn I might be able to save a significant part of my remaining chips

4) Undervaluing that I may save some of my remaining stack in the cases where I'm already beat

Thanks again for any comments on the validity of these four points and their ranking (or, for that matter, my original reason for re-raising stated above).

Calling is terrible. Shove. You'll either win the pot, get them to call with the wrong odds or get coolered by a hand that was going to get you anyway.

This is a very straightforward decision.

I think against better players that won't call an all in for instance with something like two overs and a flush draw/ two pair; calling does make sense with the intention of reevaluating turn. Against someone who is unlikely to fold, stick in a hefty raise to like 150$. Depends on the opponents imo. Specifically raiser. I honestly like a raise better as default. I know to many this just screams a set but I think we are just called way too often by worse and if not, we take down a 125$ pot without ever showing our cards.

Not sure how you can make a good decision in this spot without ranging your opponents.

What is Villain 1's raising range here? Based on the relative small sizing and his style of play it seems like 78cc 76cc type hands are unlikely. If we assign him only 4 possible straights (4 combos of 56 suited) and 4 possible flush draws (perhaps A5cc, A2cc, A7cc, A6cc) that is essentially an EV wash vs our hand.

So what is the rest of his range? Does he have a pocket pair here? No. Does he have pure bluffs in his range? No. Does he have 2 pair here? Seems unlikely that he is calling preflop with 74, 73, or 34 even ignoring the fact that there is only one combo of 34 suited, 2 combos of 74 suited, and 0 combos of 73 suited even possible. He does have 3 combinations of 77 and 3 combinations of 44 both of which are 94% against our hand.

So whatever you do, I certainly wouldn't want to raise get it in vs the player whose range has us crushed.

The open pre was a "pot builder", and we have the initiative. Now we have bottom set on a possible straight board, 4 ways. We're checked to OTF and bet almost pot, only to be check raised by BB.

Pot = $123, Hero has $273 left eff multiway.

I don't like calling, for me it's raise or fold. Bottom set. We beat overconfident overpairs and 2 pair, maybe draws. Discount the draws. Overpairs a certainly there, do they check raise to protect? Do they think that way? Or are we pretty much looking at a straight, or two pair, or a better set? In which case it's a clear fold.

Ugh, I don't want to raise here unless the Villain is clueless, so - ugh - fold.

Sorry, there is no way I'm folding bottom set here. If you're going to consider folding bottom set, then you should never play 33, because it will almost always be bottom set the times you flop a set.

I can't usually put a "longtime winning professional player on the tightish side" on 56s, either. Not from the blinds. The only thing that gives me some pause is that your raise size was small - 7$, and that the big fish is in the pot, so maybe he's willing to play a hand like 56s even out of position, in the hopes of stacking the fish.

But even if we leave 56s in, that makes 10 total combos of hands that beat us right now. I think I can easily come up with 10+ combos of hands that we're beating that he would play this way. Two overs with clubs, as one example. Something like 99 or TT - perhaps he thinks there's a chance you can still have AK and he's ahead of the fish with his medium pair. If he can have 56s, he can have 76s, meaning 76cc is another hand he would be willing to go nuts with.

I'm raising right now. Whatever raise size gets the most money in the middle. If that's a smaller raise that the fish calls and induces a shove from the good player, cool. If that's shoving ourselves, cool.

I would also like to address a couple of your "ideas"...

This isn't a thing. We can't "protect" money that doesn't belong to us. This sounds like the logic "I just want to take the pot down now", which unfortunately is a thing in poker, but it's a misguided, non-optimal EV thing. If we're ahead right now, we want villains to call, not to fold. (even thought we will lose sometimes when they call, we will win more money over the long term by having them call with bad odds, and sometimes outdrawing us, then we would by making them fold).

See #1. We don't wait for the draws to brick before we put money in. We don't win any money that way (because once someone's draw bricks, they stop putting money in).

You may already be beat, correct. You need to decide if your total expectation of winning is bigger than the amount you lose from the 10 combos we listed. If that is true, then we continue with the hand, counting on "the long run" math to work in our favor.

This is what worries me. What is he calling with pre oop? This looks a lot like 44, 77, possibly 56. I just don't know what else he could have. Any idea how he sees you? Is he putting you on an over pair or AK? Do you normally raise to $7? If he puts you on an over pair, he's not raising with less than two pair, but is a pro tight player calling out of position w/ 34 or 47?

Seriously, what could this guy possibly have in the bb that raises us here that we beat except a flush draw?

By that logic, if you are never willing to fold bottom set then you should never play 33, because it will almost always be bottom set and sometimes it's best to fold it.

Effective stacks are $300 in a multiway pot and he's last to act preflop needing to only call $5. Effective stacks that are 60x raise size is pretty phenomenal.

He wants to go 3 ways with two overs with clubs (ie like KQcc, QJcc)? Raising with 99 or TT to fold out worse? Are you serious? If you raise with 99 here you put yourself in a terrible way ahead way behind situation. I thought this guy was a winning professional on the tighter side, not a wild aggro donk. Maybe there is a reason he's still playing 1/2 after all these years.

76cc has decent equity heads up but in a 3 way pot is often practically dead in this spot. His raise on the flop isn't that big and won't fold out bigger flush draws which is pretty much suicide for 76cc. He can certainly call with 76cc pre but that doesn't mean he is going nuts with it in this spot.

your points are all solid, I just don't think we can always put a solid winning player on the nuts when he raises. And he doesn't know we are as strong as we are when he raises, either. So yes, there's a decent chance we're in trouble here, but I feel like I need extraordinary information before I fold a set.


One thing I do know, OP can help to fix our sticky situation by getting rid of the "pot sweetener" $7 raise and make it $12 or whatever the table standard is. I want the solid tight player out of the pot with suited connectors from the blinds, not in it. And there's a better chance to win the blinds with pocket 3s - a great result.

seems like u gotta get it in even tho all were getting action from is the one made str8, bigger sets, and a few str8 flush draws if he's really that solid.

i wonder if this would be a fold on like 8 9 T with bottom set and the same circumstance since theres a few more made str8s and the few hands we beat have massive equity.

live 1-2 pro
#wattagrind

Get pot hu pre, call

I've given a lot of thought to this hand and am grateful for all the responses I got the past few days.

I think he has my range solidly on big cards, both paired or not, with the $7 pre-flop and $20 continuation bet. I'm also pretty sure he'll give me a big pair rather than a set if I re-raise the flop. Before reading the responses in this thread I thought that this was very significant and really supported the case for re-raising. I now think that him underestimating my hand matters very little in this particular spot. I'll explain why below.

This excerpt is from a superb post that really helped me a lot in defining the big blind's range. I knew that the tremendous implied odds he was getting pre-flop bring in lots of starting hands. But, as NeverLosesAtPoker later points out, it doesn't mean he'll play very many of them this way on the flop. I didn't fully appreciate that fact until I read and re-read that post.

When I originally wrote that I estimated his range at between 6-5 and 2-1 favorite that he was drawing, it came from adding up the two card combinations that I thought he could have. The 6-5 number came from what I would consider his tightest gear. It would be the 10 hands that beat me - 65s (4), 77 (3) and 44 (3) and I gave him Axc (10), 76c and 75c for 12 drawing hands. Thus 12-10 or 6-5.

The 2-1 estimate was intended to be him at his loosest. I added KQc, KJc, K10c, QJc, QTc, JTc, T9c, 98c and 87c. These 9 make it 21-10. (I recognize that these estimates are pretty crude and open to discussion, but I was just trying to make the point that I felt that it was more likely than not that he was drawing.)

After reading the responses here, I'm pretty sure that I was quite a bit off in estimating his range. What I think I overlooked was the most telling clue... the smallish check-raise, from out of position, on the flop, three-handed. I now realize that it's very unlikely that he does this with any of the big draws (flush and either two overcards/a pair/a gutshot). That's why him putting me on a big pair, rather than the set I actually have, just doesn't matter... he beats either one.


Exactly right! And I now think we can eliminate the flush draw.


I think these two say it best. Thanks to all for helping me see it.

One final thing... Along the way I had totally dismissed calling as an option. Once I concluded that villain 1 has a hand he'll go all the way with, I wondered if I could justify calling the $40 and then folding every time I don't improve. I got excited for a brief moment when I thought that the board pairs 15.5% and I'm getting 10-1 implied. I quickly realized that that's only when he has the straight. The majority of the time he's got a set and I'm dead to quads, so I just can't make a case for calling this opponent.

Raising is bad here. The guy behind you either will crush you or fold out. The pro could have ATC and be raising on a dry board, a big draw, or a made hand. Any check on a non connected board especially I bet OTT. On a non connected board OTT, if V bets I probably still flat.

If this pro is good enough that we can narrow his range to a straight or bigger sets... he's also probably good enough to be thinking about OUR image. You haven't told us how the table views you, and I think that's pretty critical to determining your action.

It sure seems to me that we're underestimating the probability that this guy is making a squeeze play. The total fish (who the pro ought to be targeting) just calls. Does the pro think you're capable of folding an overpair? What range does he put you on when you bet this flop, and what does he expect you'll do on later streets with the various parts of that range?

The problem with folding here is that your hand is still MASSIVELY underrepped. You're in danger of leveling yourself out of a massive pot. You lolraised preflop, got called in two spots, then fired a pretty standard cbet. I know I would take that line with virtually any hand that vaguely connected with the flop. And if your table image is that you'll fold to most check-raises, and the fish's table image is that he'll call multiple streets light, then the pro in the BB OUGHT to make this play with hands as weak as tpgk.

I think there's a good argument for calling here, with the intention of jamming any non-scary turn. I think there's also a good argument for pushing all-in right now, but only if you expect one player (or both) will have a tough time folding overpairs or decent draws. A medium-sized raise is the worst option, as it'll force most hands weaker than yours to fold, but also pot-commit you to call any reraise.

This is a pretty tough decision here.

All three decision have decent reasons to do. I think with the V who check reraised you, you are either way ahead, crushed, or you have live outs.

So, your flop decision, is the most important. Now, I don't know where this game is located, assuming its Vegas, if its 1/2 Max 300 buyin. If this is the case, usually a check raise is never folding. In fact, I play tons of ours at 1/2 and I rarely, if ever see a check raise, fold at 1/2. Like never, if you do, then I'd probably insta switch tables.

Now if your Villian, "professional" flopped, 77, or 44, mostly likely he would donk flop. Maybe 65 check raises instead of leading.

Would he check raise with an over pair, like 88, 99, TT, thinking you have AK or something? Thats possible.

I think 34 would check raise. I really think pair plus flush/gut shot would check raise as well.

IMHO, I think your decision is to be made now. Your either crushed or flipping.

You could flat an re-evaluate on non club non, straight boards. Like KQJ type turn cards would be perfect. Or you can flat and if villian checks a turn club, rep the flush.

Personally its a tough choice, but I think I am shoving. If he has 77, 44 well oh well, coolers happen. Kinda risk you take with 33.

And if he flopped a straight well you have outs with equity in the pot. I would shove, expecting V1 not to fold.

If he is terrible. Raising with an overpair because you want to fold out AK is super fishy thinking and puts you in a terrible way ahead way behind spot.

To those that think he may be check raising air, this is an absolutely terrible board to try that, his check raise is smallish, and professionals at these limits are nearly always just betting for value.

I'd agree with you if hero had raised a standard amount preflop. But hero raised to $7. $7 isn't usually ak or another premium hand. $7 is a small pocket pair, suited connectors, suited aces, ajo, kqo, etc.

Let's put ourselves in Villain's shoes for a minute. There's a late position lolraise to $7. Button, who is a major target, calls. We look down at 88/99/1010. We don't particularly want to 3! with these hands, since that'll build a giant pot with a low spr without defining the fish's hand very much. We'd rather outplay these weaker players postflop.

Then the flop is 743 with two clubs. We aren't folding an overpair on this board. We can bet, or we can check and see what the preflop raiser will do. [here, again, Hero's image is very important. But we have no info on that.] Preflop raiser fires $20, likely a cbet. He probably has some piece or some draw. Fish calls, also a piece or a draw. We can call here, then donk most non-dangerous turns, or we can seize the initiative here with a raise. Problem is, most turn cards are bad for us. They're either an overcard or they make 2 pair or a straight.

I think a check-raise makes plenty of sense here. And if we check-raise with an overpair here, we should size it so that we can fold to a 4-bet. Raise to $60 and we either (1) fold out the pf raiser and isolate the fish, (2) get called by both players, planning to shove most turns that don't complete an obvious draw and check/fold turns that do complete an obvious draw, (3) fold out both players right now, or (4) get reraised and fold right now, after finding out that we're behind.

I'm not a professional $1/2 player, so maybe there's some major flaw in my thinking. But that seems like a perfectly reasonable line to take with an overpair to this board. Not the dominant line (leading the flop seems preferable imo), but certainly one that could be in a thinking player's range.

If we're check-folding overpairs every time someone lolraises, then cbets and attracts a call from a fish, I think we're leaving a lot of value on the table.

You didn't mention your logic for villain not leading the flop with an overpair. Fact is a check-raise with an overpair is a massive overplay in this spot. If we check-raise and villain comes over the top we have to fold, which is quite unfortunate because we are ahead of a good portion of villain's shipping range. If we check-raise and villain calls we are playing a huge bloated pot OOP with no clue what our opponent has (or opponents) with very few turn cards that we are going to feel good about.

It's a terrible line. Check/call or lead flop are the preferable lines depending how aggro the other villains are. We have fairly marginal holdings with showdown value and should play a very marginal sized pot with it. This is especially true of a tight 1/2 pro who is quite likely playing 1/2 because he is a nit that doesn't push edges. These guys are looking for the nuts.

Also, I think it's a little dismissive to think that the other player can't have an overpair as well simply because he made it $7 from late position. There are a variety of reasons why he could have sized his hand as such. Sure, it's more likely he doesn't have a big pair but we can't completely exclude it and fact is we have no clue what he has right now but you want to shovel money into the pot.

Fair points. I agree that it's an aggressive line for V as described. But it's a reasonable line for some scenarios.

Look, we're talking about potentially folding a set on the flop to a single small raise when only $300 deep. That's soul read territory. For that fold to be correct, we have to be damn sure that overpairs/squeeze plays aren't in villain's range. I don't think we can nearly be sure of that.