I've given a lot of thought to this hand and am grateful for all the responses I got the past few days.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Javanewt
Any idea how he sees you? Is he putting you on an over pair or AK?
I think he has my range solidly on big cards, both paired or not, with the $7 pre-flop and $20 continuation bet. I'm also pretty sure he'll give me a big pair rather than a set if I re-raise the flop. Before reading the responses in this thread I thought that this was very significant and really supported the case for re-raising. I now think that him underestimating my hand matters very little in this particular spot. I'll explain why below.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NeverLosesAtPoker
Effective stacks are $300 in a multiway pot and he's last to act preflop needing to only call $5. Effective stacks that are 60x raise size is pretty phenomenal.
This excerpt is from a superb post that really helped me a lot in defining the big blind's range. I knew that the tremendous implied odds he was getting pre-flop bring in lots of starting hands. But, as NeverLosesAtPoker later points out, it doesn't mean he'll play very many of them this way on the flop. I didn't fully appreciate that fact until I read and re-read that post.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NeverLosesAtPoker
Not sure how you can make a good decision in this spot without ranging your opponents.
What is Villain 1's raising range here?
When I originally wrote that I estimated his range at between 6-5 and 2-1 favorite that he was drawing, it came from adding up the two card combinations that I thought he could have. The 6-5 number came from what I would consider his tightest gear. It would be the 10 hands that beat me - 65s (4), 77 (3) and 44 (3) and I gave him Axc (10), 76c and 75c for 12 drawing hands. Thus 12-10 or 6-5.
The 2-1 estimate was intended to be him at his loosest. I added KQc, KJc, K10c, QJc, QTc, JTc, T9c, 98c and 87c. These 9 make it 21-10. (I recognize that these estimates are pretty crude and open to discussion, but I was just trying to make the point that I felt that it was more likely than not that he was drawing.)
After reading the responses here, I'm pretty sure that I was quite a bit off in estimating his range. What I think I overlooked was the most telling clue... the smallish check-raise, from out of position, on the flop, three-handed. I now realize that it's very unlikely that he does this with any of the big draws (flush and either two overcards/a pair/a gutshot). That's why him putting me on a big pair, rather than the set I actually have, just doesn't matter... he beats either one.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Javanewt
Seriously, what could this guy possibly have in the bb that raises us here that we beat except a flush draw?
Exactly right! And I now think we can eliminate the flush draw.
Quote:
Originally Posted by River G
Ugh, I don't want to raise here unless the Villain is clueless, so - ugh - fold.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NeverLosesAtPoker
So whatever you do, I certainly wouldn't want to raise get it in vs the player whose range has us crushed.
I think these two say it best. Thanks to all for helping me see it.
One final thing... Along the way I had totally dismissed calling as an option. Once I concluded that villain 1 has a hand he'll go all the way with, I wondered if I could justify calling the $40 and then folding every time I don't improve. I got excited for a brief moment when I thought that the board pairs 15.5% and I'm getting 10-1 implied. I quickly realized that that's only when he has the straight. The majority of the time he's got a set and I'm dead to quads, so I just can't make a case for calling this opponent.