1/2 NL. Three hours into session. 8 handed.

Hero ($500, BTN): Hero has what is probably a LAG image to the table, even though hero is TAG, but has been very card live. Hero has only bluffed a couple of times into session and hasn't been caught.

Villain ($250, SB): Villain is a NIT. If he's playing a hand with ANY raise, you better bet he has 88-AA or any two Broadway cards. He only plays a few hands an hour and if he's raising pre-flop, he is guaranteed to have QQ-AA or AKs. The weird thing about villain is that it's 50-50 as to whether he'll 3! KK or AA. QQ and AKs are not in his 3! range. I've seen instances very similar to this happen before, leaving me very puzzled: UTG opens for $10 and gets 3 callers, villain from BB flats with AA. Hero has played several hours with villain, but has only seen him min raise ONCE ever, and it was with quads on the river.

OTTH

MP1 limps and action is folded to hero who looks up to KQ and raises to $12. Villain calls and MP1 calls.

Flop ($39) 10 J K

Villain checks, MP1 checks, hero bets $25, villain min raises to $50, and MP1 folds. Hero? I'm obviously not asking if I should fold.

I think calling, eval turn is standard

On my best (worst??) days I might fold this against that villain

Villain either has AQ or a set. Folding is not out of the question, if you can pin his range at mostly AQ then you are drawing very thin already.

Even against a regular nit I'm taking one card, see what he does on the turn. No matter what he is likely to check and let you take a free card. If he does hammer the pot again then folding is probably best if you don't improve.

I think that a call is best. But given description, it is unlikely that we are ahead, and very unlikely we get paid big if our draw does come in.

I'm assuming Villain never does this with QJ, Q10 so we are up against 2pr, set, or straight. Honestly, I would probably never fold this for this price, but I am unlikely to call a significant bet OTT without improvement. The good thing about nits is that they often give us great odds to draw against them. But if he has already got a straight, we are drawing to chop/lose to AQ, and I think that if villain fires $50+ on turn, I am insta folding.

Why aren't you considering folding?

You beat only a bluff and likely drawing to chop with AQ or to maybe suck out on JJ or TT.

Against the average 1/2 player it's an easy call. Against this guy I think it's the opposite.

We are behind. I muck without thinking twice.

At first I thought hero had the nut straight, but now that I read the hand properly, I'm leaning way towards a fold.

If your nit read is accurate, we can make an exploitable fold here against his monster.

Meh, fold.

This has AQ written all over it.

Folding is bad without a lock read that this is near exclusively the nuts. You have direct odds to draw against two pair or a set. Against AQ you might get to see the river for free if the turn pairs the board.

Flop easy check.

Ap call the minraise

As posted sounds like AQ. Fold and play another hand where you can win money.

Probably a call since you have the direct odds to draw to a straight. If he has a set you aren’t going to get a ton out of him but you have some implied odds.

Fellas/ladies, it is $114 in the pot to call $25 (4.5-1). Folding is out of the question unless V tables AQ right now. EZ peel and see what develops on the turn.

Against this opponent, the sexy pot odds aren't enough to make me want to call. Everything that does this has us crushed (AQ) or has pretty good equity (sets) and won't pay off when the obvious straight hits.

I mean, a call isn't terrible or anything, but do we really wanna try to squeeze blood from this rock?

you can't go wrong going with math when confused

HOW-ever
what makes a good player a great player is going with their gut.
If you make a great read on a player and go with it even thou the math says different these little edges add up on your bottom line over time.

I agree with this AP.

In this spot, it feels like a trap if he is a nit. The min-raise seems like he is baiting a 3-bet, but I could be wrong. I think it is correct to flat call and re-eval the turn.

I was actually really surprised to see the majority of posters saying to straight up fold to the flop raise. Good points were made. I can't really see myself folding in this position on the flop, but I see where you're coming from.