I have been remarkably card dead during this session. I've done nothing but fold for more than 2 hours. I've been known to play very tight, but this is extreme for me.

Villain appears to be Indian and in his early 30s. He has been extremely active postflop, betting or raising only to fold to a shove several times. He's also gotten into at least two preflop leveling wars in which he acts quickly with a 3-bet or 4-bet but then gives up when someone plays back. He's been at the table long enough to notice that I have been playing snug but probably doesn't realize the extent to which I have been a non-participant.

I have a tendency to force things after awhile in these situations, either by opening a speculative hand in early position or cold calling a raise that I probably shouldn't. In this session, I was determined not to make that mistake. I was focusing on avoiding marginal spots and not playing just for the sake of playing.

Then I couldn't help myself...

In the hand immediately preceding this one, Villain busted one of the larger stacks at the table. They got it all in on a jack-high flop and Villain took the pot with J9. It appeared that the other guy had a flush draw or maybe a pocket pair. In either case, I think he just got impatient with Villain's antics.

So, I probably picked the worst opponent at the worst time to bloat a straddled pot against, because he's clearly feeling good about things and not afraid to throw chips around.

I have ~250; Villain has ~800.

7-handed

Button straddles for 5, Villain calls in MP, I raise to 20 in CO with 87, Button folds, Villain calls.
Flop (48): J-Jx-9x
Check, check.
Turn (48): 5
Villain checks, I bet 25, Villain calls.
River (98): 6
Villain checks, I think for ~30 seconds and bet 70, Villain thinks for ~30 seconds and says, "All in." I (~130 remaining) ... ?

Pre seems meh. It's a bit thin since we are so shallow in the straddled pot, but whatever.

I would bet this flop however. There are a lot of hands that are better that we can get to fold. Namely any Ax, Kx, and possibly some 77-.

I'm unsure about the turn, but river seems like a pretty easy bet fold.
We are showing ne fear of the clubs, in fact we seem to like them repping AXcc, and he shoves over top.

I actually think you should call here on the river, if he has a FH or the flush, unlucky. It's a gamble as you really have no idea what he has as it was checked all the way through (as if he was drawing). He knows you're playing snug and you've already said that he's a bit of a gamboooooler and likes to make moves.

Everything about the way this hand played out tells me you're beat but based on the price you're getting (130/498) you need 26% equity against his range to break even on the river and the amount of times you've seen this guy make crazy moves I'd just go with it. I'd say you could be good here about 30% of the time here as he could be thinking you're FOS or he could be trying to fold out straights and small flushes with air or trip jacks. and when you're not good at least you get to see his hand.

I'm usually checking the river back to him here. Dont think your gonna get much value by betting that board on the river. As played I think I call here and try not to punch him in the face when he turns over Qc 8c.

Grunch: getting a little under 3:1. He's almost never got a boat. He can certainly have backed into a flush. So you need to decide if he's bluffing/betting worse more than ~29% of the time. Is he? I have a tough time folding in these spots.

It doesn't sound like you really had a plan for your bet. Why $70? Was your plan to bet fold? Bet call? If you were gonna fold you didn't need to put $70 out there.

Few questions/observations, but I'm not good enough to give answers:

You said he's gotten into two leveling wars pre, but has be been active otherwise? Have you noticed if he limps a lot or prefers to raise? I generally consider just calling a straddle to be a limp, but is this the first time you've observed this situation?

If he's been very active post flop, is it troubling here that he's check/calling to the river? I would think hed be betting his draws if you're very tight and he might either push you out or get value when his draws get there, but he might just be floating thinking you're tight enough to fold a premium hand on a scary board. He might also think he'll get pushed off of his draws if you did wake up with a premium hand and he provokes you.

I don't think we have enough info here to make assessments, but from what i can see I'd almost certainly be calling as he'd have every reason to think he can get you off trips or a straight on a paired board with a made flush, and you know he's capable of making moves.

The other thing is what straights or better can he really put you on here? You havent played a hand in 2 hours, you're range should be pocket pair heavy, but the more i type the more I'm thinking I'm wrong

Obv idiotic to say he could get you off trips on a paired board. I said i wasnt good. Won't let me edit for some reason, doesnt want me to save face.

Call him.

He's spazzing and sitting on a mountain of chips. He shows up with much worse often enough. But expect to see a J5 or some completely rando backdoor flush here at least 1/3 of the time.

I wouldnt beat yourself up over the pf call btw. I think its ok in position but would be much better if deepstacked.

Is villain capable of value betting? I.e. If he had betting initiative here, would he value bet trips? My experience at 1/2 is that even a lot of LAGs shut down when board gets scary. If he has trips, hes either value betting thin or turning a made hand into a bluff. I think the first option is certainly no, and a small chance of the second.

He either has total air or a monster, and you have been repping a strong hand by barreling as the board got scarier.

When someone who is "extremely active postflop" goes into check/call mode and then shoves a river, I would be very careful.

"Active post flop" is unhelpful. You should be looking specifically for river betting tendencies. 90% of LLSNL villains will not raise the river without nut or near nut hands.

Half of those who do are spewed lags and easy to spot. The other half are good players who hand read and know what your range looks like and that their hand is effectively the nuts relative to your range.

Which is This guy? On a paired flush board I think we call the 5% or so of villains we identify as lags. Bet fold the rest.

If your first instinct tells ...you're beat than why ..., go and call with it the all-in $$ .. (something must be out of balance)

How funny is that?

What you expect dude to have when he's going all-in on the river?

That's another good reason not to get involved. I wasn't even thinking much about stack sizes since I had 125 big blinds. However, with a straddle, that's not very deep.

I was on the fence about betting the flop; could have gone either way.

That's nice, but I'm not into making $130 donations just to see someone's cards, haha.

There's no way in hell I'm going to check this river. If I'm going to semi-bluff the turn and then hit one of my eight miracle cards (although it's possible that two of them aren't clean outs), I'm definitely going to try to get some value. Checking seems extraordinarily nitty, even for me.

I did have a plan; I just abandoned it midstream, haha. Before I made the bet, I was convinced that I was bet/folding. Then somewhere along the way, I lost my conviction to stick with it. As you said, perhaps 70 was too much for a bet/fold line. Maybe 50 would have been better. Although I do think there is some merit to the belief that he is less likely to attempt shenanigans if I have made a larger bet.

He has been quite active, and I'd say it's been a pretty even mix of limps and raises preflop. I can't remember whether he had limped in any other straddled pots.

I was a little concerned that he might be trapping with a monster, but after I checked behind on the turn, I find it difficult to believe that he would risk letting the river check through as well. My check on the turn may look a lot like I'm giving up, so it would be hard for him to assume that I would fire another barrel on the river.

You're right; if he's paying attention at all, that's not a board that's likely to connect with the way I have been playing. Unless I have 99 or a backdoor flush, I'd say he has to feel pretty safe.

Why is that idiotic? I could see myself folding a jack, especially if I don't like my kicker.

I didn't call; I raised. I'm never going to cold call a raise in this spot with a straddle on and my stack so short as a result.

Check/raise seems like an odd river line with trips. I would have expected him to lead out with that.

This isn't the type of guy to shut down; at least not until he's seen extreme strength.

I don't have any river tendencies to draw from, because this opponent has not played any significant pots on the river.

There's no doubt this guy is a lag, but I'm still not quite sure how good he is.

You can't base every decision entirely on instinct. There must be at least some regard for the price the pot is giving you.

I would bet smaller on the river because Im trying to get 9x to call.

Other than that you pretty much have the worst value hand possible the way it played out. Pretty obv he has a flush minimum here given his line.

Results:

I called; Villain showed J7.

I wouldn't have bet ott (or seen the flop).

You said you had 8 miracle outs. It's more like 0. It's 0 to get paid, 3 to win without more money going in.

When I play a good hand and play it well pf and end up getting into a big decision otr, usually I make the right play. When I play a terrible hand and play it terribly pf and get to a big decision otr, it almost never ends well.

You're not seeing the flop, so you're folding 87s in a 7-handed game from the CO after a straddle and one limper? Just clarifying.

As played, regarding whether to bet, I'm not going to make a preflop raise and then not bet again the rest of the hand in position. I'm either going to c-bet or delayed c-bet on the turn. Since the turn was a good card, my c-bet is a semi-bluff. Otherwise, I'm going to be bluffing most turn cards with 8-high when checked to twice.

I don't understand what you mean by zero outs to get paid. Obviously I have eight outs to a straight, although two of them complete the backdoor flush. Most players are going to pay off one more reasonable bet with three jacks.

I also don't understand what you mean by three outs to win without more money going in. If I make a straight, more money is going in on the river.

87s is not a terrible hand.

You can make a case that I played this hand sub-optimally. As I said myself, it was probably not advisable to put myself in this particular situation. However, "terrible" is a bit extreme as a description of how I played the hand.

Wouldn't flat pre and let button have position. And there's not really any dead money. Not that you know the straddler is going to fold, but his $5, the $3 in blinds, after the rake, $4 in dead money, and you know V isn't l/f'ing, so you have position most of the time but that's it, just position equity, zero fold equity, some hand equity, some skill equity. I don't know, I usually get the aggro's to call me a nit, don't usually have the fellow nits calling me a nit lol.

It seems like position is the only factor in this decision. I understand you can't play hands and only win if they hit, but there are times the board makes it difficult to win without the cards. This V isn't folding much, it's going to take a stab otf or ott plus the river when he misses his draws. Two stabs against a guy who might hero call anyway, I might just check back the whole way once I see the flop and turn.

I meant most of the outs are RIO. You like the non-club 6s. Any T and better straights/boats are the hands putting big money in. And when non-club 6s hit what hands are paying you off? I guess J7. I don't often draw to hands that aren't the nuts, sometimes to hands that are obviously live (against an overpair drawing to a 7-high flush is ok), so the turn is a bluff to me, no hand equity, and only a good move if you have enough FE and are prepared to barrel brick rivers and think barreling brick rivers gets you the pot.

87 isn't terrible, my wording was a little off. I meant spots that you know from the beginning aren't great. And you just get deeper and into slightly worse spots and then all of a sudden you're otr tanking and you'd rather be the guy with the shovel hanging out with the elephants at the circus than thinking about what to do.