Playing 1/2 NL live at local casino. Pot's straddled by a tight foreign nit who has $300 or so and won't raise his straddle unless he has a big hand. BB is an older nit with less than $100, he has gotten his money in without having the nuts AND has used a lot of chips to seemingly steal pots when he thinks others are stealing (I was a victim about 30 minutes prior).

BB calls, I call UTG w/ A8cc. Three of us to the flop of 988r.

BB checks. I know if I lead out I probably win the $15 pot. But in our poker room there are $300 bonuses for high hands, so I check and pray for the case 8. It's checked through. Turn 4 completes rainbow. Same thinking here and it's checked through. River T. BB donks for $15 and I minraise. Button folds and the BB suddenly jams for his remaining $75 or so. Fold or call crying?

You snap obv not folding

you didn't flop a set. you flopped trips.

I predict many posters will say to play your hand for value and not play your hand like a slot machine but I would be curious what the EV of checking & playing for that would be. My guess is that it would be even lower if we pay off in this spot.

I don't know other people's opinion on this, but I rarely go for high hands/royals. The way I think of it is you can add 300 to the pot, and you have a 1 outer to the 300 otf, which is pretty tough. Meanwhile, I think the BB will stack off a wide range here. If he's the type to slowplay pre, he could have JJ+ and he'll definitely get it in. If not, any 8 except 98 will get it in, and also TT, maybe even something dumb like 77/A9-T9 if you said he's gotten it in without the nuts previously. So I think you need to bet the flop. And if not, then definitely the turn.

OTR... I don't know. 3! rivers rarely happen at this level because the money is usually in by that point. QJ is definitely something to be afraid of, but there's always the possibility of AT/T9. Also, what odds do you have against the reraise on the river? I'm bad at this part. so the pot is like 60, he shoves for his remaining 75, so that's 135, and you have 45 to call to win a 180 pot? So 180:40? I think you have to call here. There's too much money in the middle.

Is "open set" even a term or did I somehow make that up?

So you have a 1/47 chance at hitting your high hand, with an EV of what... Like 6-7 dollars? Value bet every street.

This.

It's actually a bit better than that since you have 2 streets to hit it, but same idea.

If you get 1 call for $12 then you've already made your value back.
In addition to this some of the time you get a call and you hit quads. Double win.

Just bet.

And if you think that betting out will win the pot too often, then you should be stealing almost every pot until people adjust.

Also, you're likely beat on the river. You checked your likely best hand until a few different possible draws came in, and there's a strong chance they have one of them.

Results



Lesson learned: I think it was OK to slowplay one street. Should have bet at least $15 on the turn. Better to win a $15 pot than to lose any amount to someone else.

Pot/pot/pot easy game.

So wait... Why do you think it was ok to slow play one street? Hands like QJ that will peel flops light is exactly why we value bet the flop

Next time, bet for value.
Should hero bet 50% of pot, 75% of pot, or 100% of pot when he has nuts?

pretty sure you made that up

Lol open sets itt.