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1/2 NL: Flop open ended + flush draw 1/2 NL: Flop open ended + flush draw

03-20-2014 , 12:05 AM
No real reads on table besides villain 2 in this hand. Villain 2 I have played with some before. He is competent, but not overly aggressive. Prior to this hand I have seen him make normal size raises and even over bet the pot against short stacks.

Stack sizes to start hand: SB(Villain 1)=38. Villain 2= 270ish. Villain 3= 300 ish. Hero = 350ish.

Preflop: Villain 1 raises to 10 in MP, Villain 2 calls, hero calls with 6 4, BB calls.

Flop: 7 5 2. SB )villain one leads out for $28 and is all-in. Villain 2 raises to $60 and Villain 3 calls $60. Hero?

Is there any other play besides shoving here? Should I ever be thinking of folding this hand? Based on Villain 2's raise I do not think he has a set or over pair. I think he would have raised much larger. I have never seen him basically min-raise. I think a shove will get Villain 2 to fold. As for Villain 3, I have no idea what his calling range is here or if he will call an all-in with just the flush draw. I had not seen him play any other hands past the flop since I was at the table. What would you do?
1/2 NL: Flop open ended + flush draw Quote
03-20-2014 , 03:31 AM
Your flush outs are dirty. You likely only have 6 outs. And you have 6 high. And you have less than 3% of your stack invested. This is a clear fold to me.
1/2 NL: Flop open ended + flush draw Quote
03-20-2014 , 03:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by prairiebreeze
Your flush outs are dirty. You likely only have 6 outs. And you have 6 high. And you have less than 3% of your stack invested. This is a clear fold to me.
I don't think its quite fair to discount ALL of the flush outs.

But lets pretend for a minute it is. if we only have 6 outs we have roughly 25% equity by the river. Shoving here accomplishes two things.

1) we realize all of our potential equity
2) we maximize fold equity.

When we shove it in are Vs really stacking off with flushdraws in this spot? and if so, how often? They would need to stack off here with a flush draw 75% of the time for this to be a bad play. I think when we shove it in we get called by far more two pairs, overpairs and sets then bigger FDs and when that is the case the majority of our flush outs are good!

With this much equity im happy to jam it all in here to maximize FE and make the most +EV play.

Last edited by de4df1sh; 03-20-2014 at 03:46 AM.
1/2 NL: Flop open ended + flush draw Quote
03-20-2014 , 10:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by prairiebreeze
Your flush outs are dirty. You likely only have 6 outs. And you have 6 high. And you have less than 3% of your stack invested. This is a clear fold to me.
But Villain 2 wouldn't min-raise with a super strong hand. To me this raise is saying I think I can beat BB but I really don't want to play a big hand. So, I think hes folding to a shove nearly 100% of the time. I think if Villain 2 folds, its extremely tough for villain 3 to call with a flush draw, which I think is his most likely hand. I think if he was stacking off on his flush draw he would have raised the $60 bet. Plus i think my hand looks like a set and nothing else if I shove.
1/2 NL: Flop open ended + flush draw Quote
03-20-2014 , 10:30 AM
With an extremely speculative hand I think it's best to only call a raise of, at most, 5% of your effective stack (5% of 38 dollars in this case). So I would not be calling a short-stacker's raise with 64s.

As played since people only post hands they lose, and you've made it obvious that you shoved, everyone is going to suggest folding. Maybe it's better to make your posts in a more neutral manner and just ask for opinions.

p.s. If I mis-clicked and called pre, I would have shoved also.
1/2 NL: Flop open ended + flush draw Quote
03-20-2014 , 11:52 AM
Shove or fold is the issue. Calling is completely out of question. If you make a flush on turn or if it somehow gets checked thereafter till the river and you make a flush there you wont know where you are.

Spot here depends a lot on the tendencies of villians 2 + 3. Somewhat hard to put Villian 2 on a hand, his lack of a 3bet pre is interesting. Would usually discount premium hands but may have flatted to induce bigger stacks in with the hope of playing a bigger pot. Still think its more likely he hasn't a premium here. As a result its very possible he has a set or 88, 99. His raise with a set makes sense although the sizing to 60 admittedly looks weakish..

Villian 3 on the other hand almost certainly has a flush draw or some combi-draw. If you believe he will fold a draw to a shove then shoving becomes more attractive.

My problem with shoving here in general though is two-fold. First you're lack of investment thus far in pot. You can find better spots.

Secondly, you're attempt to represent a set with a shove isn't always working here. The likelihood in my mind that Villain 2 might have a set probably means I fold in this spot. If Villian 2 calls with a set then Villian 3 who may be on a nut flush draw may feel priced in. In that spot you are down to 6 outs.

In conclusion - Folding here vs most competent players.
1/2 NL: Flop open ended + flush draw Quote
03-20-2014 , 12:36 PM
What a fun spot .. I think you could go any of the 4 ways.

Fold ... No one would blame you here, but why play 46 and walk away from this? The only reason is if you aren't 'feeling it' and only you can do that at the table. I dont think I am ever folding in this spot.

I am having a little trouble figuring out where you are at the table and where V1 is at the table (SB or MP?).

Call ... By calling you 'trap' V2 into giving off information on the Turn with the hand still multi-way and a side pot already going AND he is OOP (hopefully to both V3 and Hero). Is V2 capable of folding if you make a move for this pot on the Turn?

Rasie ... By raising you are trying to isolate the side pot, but you could lose some implied odds by taking out an opponent. You could price out a flush draw and thus free up some outs ... which you might need.

Shove ... I am not a big fan of shoving/over-shoving/go-away bets but that might be the only way to take down the side pot right now. You would recover your investment that is in the main, so you are now on a freeroll in the main if no one calls you. You still have a bit much in your stack to have it look like a value shove IMO so I would think it is what it is ... a draw shove.

I would either call or raise here trying to get a non-nut flush draw to fold out. This should tell me where I am with my outs. V2 has 200 behind and the pot is 240 'when' you call (152 main). If I raise it will be to $200 total ... You have a bigger stack and it wont look like an all-in even though you are never folding. If you call then you are in a bit of 'no man's land' but your investment is less and hopefully you are IP since this pot is not set up for you to c/r Turn with any FE from either opponent.

Fold ... I can (probably should) but I wont
Call ... This is a decent sized pot that I want to stick around.
Raise ... Applys enough pressure on V3 that he knows he is in for his stack if he is on a draw regardless of how V2 reacts.
All-in ... Probably the 'correct' move for the stack/pot sizes but looks more like a bluff than a raise to me.

Game time decision ... wish you had 5c not 2c on board!! GL
1/2 NL: Flop open ended + flush draw Quote
03-20-2014 , 05:01 PM
i would fold pre

as played i might just fold
1/2 NL: Flop open ended + flush draw Quote
03-21-2014 , 03:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by de4df1sh
I don't think its quite fair to discount ALL of the flush outs.
All clubs help or all clubs hurt. You want to count SOME of the clubs as outs?
1/2 NL: Flop open ended + flush draw Quote
03-21-2014 , 03:19 AM
I shove. Better draw is your biggest worry. And they may fold. And if not youll have an extra 6 outs coz you can pair up vs Ahi draw
1/2 NL: Flop open ended + flush draw Quote
03-21-2014 , 03:27 AM
^ Shoving wouldn't be bad if we flopped a pair, like 6c5c. Then V can have us beat right now with a pp, and we have flush/2pair/trips outs. Or V can have the nfd but we have a pair and we need to dodge the 7 flush outs. Without the pair we can be < 25% to win easy.
1/2 NL: Flop open ended + flush draw Quote

      
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