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1/2 NL Facing River Shove 1/2 NL Facing River Shove

05-25-2014 , 12:39 PM
Hero starts hand w a little over 100bb
Villain has me covered

History of villain in hand is he is definitely aggressive, but I haven't seen him make any big bluffs or anything. Primarily has been raising frequently generally pretty big and taking it down alot with C-bets. Seen him raise 89s from EP/MP one hand, C-bet and give up. Then another hand he had raised 75o from late position and got a short stack w two pair. Seen him reraise AK in the blinds vs a 50+ bb player and C-bet half and call a shove for like 1/3 w AKh. Overall, definitely aggressive, but haven't seen him get out of line too much. He seems to have somewhat of an idea of what he is doing.

Hero has a tight, aggressive image(probably the only person at the table this means anything to is this villain)

Hero raises KQ to $11 from MP/EP
Villain calls on button(haven't seen him call many raises)

Flop K97r pot = $22
Hero bets $15
Villain calls $15

Turn 2o Pot = $50

Hero bets around $32
Villain appears to consider a raise, not sure if intentional(may have been), eventually he decides on a call

Turn Ao Pot = roughly $115
At this point I am trying to get value from KT/KJ, I decide on a thin value bet of $35.

Villain shoves all in

$125-130ish for me to call
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05-25-2014 , 12:42 PM
Fold. He likely has two pair or a set.
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05-25-2014 , 12:50 PM
another thing of note, he didn't even push his chips in the middle, I take this as very strong because whenever I have done this in the past, it's usually as a slip and means "my hand is best, no point in putting my chips in the middle, so just hand your stack over" lol
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05-25-2014 , 01:02 PM
Your bet looks super weak.

I would probably x/t and bet safe rivers.

As played probably just fold, I don't mind a call though if V is aggressive.
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05-25-2014 , 01:07 PM
I think if you make a thin value bet on the river in that spot, you need to have a plan against an aggressive player whether your going to call a re-raise or fold to one. If you have to fold to a re-raise and he's an aggressive player, then I probably like checking the river and inducing a bet from part of his range your ahead of. He'll probably just check back KTs/KJ. Also, you said you thought he was thinking about raising the turn maybe??? That's another reason to just check the river

Villain has some nutted hands in his range like {99, 77, AK}. Probably has {KTs, KJ for medium value hands}. And {T8s/86s} for open ended straight draws on the flop.

As played, He's just calling with KT/KJ vs your $35 bet. So $125 to win $310?? Thats about 1:2.5. I think its pretty close. He's shipping nutted hands every time. He's not shipping T8s/86s every time and you said it looked like he almost raised the turn, so I probably would just sigh/fold haha.

Would like to hear other people's opinions on this spot too!
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05-25-2014 , 01:18 PM
i dont think AK is in his range, I think he would reraise it pre. If I check the river, I pretty much have to call a bet dont you think? unless he like pots it or something, then I think I could fold. but maybe C/C a half pot sized bet or something.
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05-25-2014 , 01:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisBowling
I think if you make a thin value bet on the river in that spot, you need to have a plan against an aggressive player whether your going to call a re-raise or fold to one. If you have to fold to a re-raise and he's an aggressive player, then I probably like checking the river and inducing a bet from part of his range your ahead of. He'll probably just check back KTs/KJ. Also, you said you thought he was thinking about raising the turn maybe??? That's another reason to just check the river

Villain has some nutted hands in his range like {99, 77, AK}. Probably has {KTs, KJ for medium value hands}. And {T8s/86s} for open ended straight draws on the flop.

As played, He's just calling with KT/KJ vs your $35 bet. So $125 to win $310?? Thats about 1:2.5. I think its pretty close. He's shipping nutted hands every time. He's not shipping T8s/86s every time and you said it looked like he almost raised the turn, so I probably would just sigh/fold haha.

Would like to hear other people's opinions on this spot too!
i think my plan when I thin value bet the river is to fold to a ship unless the player is extremely aggressive. I really wasn't sure how to take his "hesitation on a raise" I figured he might have been on a draw and could possibly try and represent certain cards if miss, or hit the draw outright(but I honestly think this is giving him too much credit) I think the hesitation to raise meant he wanted more money/expected a river bet from me.(this is in hindsight.) I think he had a strong hand, and I did fold. He didn't show, which I'm almost certain if he had been bluffing, he would have shown. He did later comment "good fold", which not sure how to take.

I wasn't sure if his consideration of a raise was as a scare attempt or what, but it seemed pretty unintentional.
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05-26-2014 , 12:07 PM
Not a lot of players at $1/$2 are shoving the river as a bluff. I'm x/c the river if the V puts out a thin value bet. I'm x/f the river to anything substantially bigger than half the pot.
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05-26-2014 , 12:16 PM
If he said good fold he probably meant it, most people don't actually lie at the poker tables, some try to deceive, but almost no one will flat out tell a lie, although it's still possible.

Your bet on the river looks really weak, I'd prefer a check and call most bets unless they're sized way too big.
Betting the $35 basically tells villain you have TP and will fold to a raise. Unless you make these bets often with better hands too.

AK could very well be in villains range, he has position on you, so no need to 3bet pre.

I'd fold.
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05-28-2014 , 12:43 PM
This guy was very deceptive. Saying things like "throw me another A to the dealer when he didn't have an A, or throw me another diamond, when he didn't have a diamond" Iunno lol. But yeah, maybe vs an aggressive player, putting out such a weak looking bet is just asking to get raised. C/C a small river bet seems good. I thought about the possibility of him perceiving my bet as weak and making a move, but then again, not too many people are capable of just shoving the river like that, although, I have seen it done before
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