No real reads on V. MAWG who insists on talking "poker strat" at the table. Some of his "poker strat" is really just nonsense. LOVES to hero call, although it's kind of irrelevant in this hand. Has Hero'd w/ A high twice, won once.

Hero is Young white kid who is entering pots with raises and has a high cbet frequency. not a lot of limping.

Hero has A8


V limps
Hero raise to 12 in MP
4 folds
V calls

Flop (24)

K 8 3

V checked dark
Hero cbet 16
V calls

Turn (54) 5

V checks dark
Hero checks behind


River (54) 9

V leads out for 35
Hero?

I have never seen someone check dark twice HU and was pretty lost on this river. Do I catch enough bluffs?

I know you don't have "real reads" on V, but what about basic demographic info?

This line looks like a really bad player with a bad K, 89 or 99/TT. Without any reads, I'm going to assume that he's never folding a K if we raise. I don't see any complete bluffs in his range, sans reads. I fold.

Thanks for the post. Updated my IP to include some info

fold.

Fold here:
1. way too many hands in V's range have you beat-K9, K10+, 89, 67.
2. Raising river not likely to get him to fold any hand in his river betting range except bluffs, because all you can plausibly represent here as a value raise is 99 and 67.

I'd strongly consider a turn bet for value.

The fact that he likes to make hero calls matters a lot if it means he might float OOP with air, small pairs and draws (none here except backdoors, though). He sounds like he may be what I call an "ego player," or someone who plays to show-off and make occasional great plays rather than make money.

I would call. We wouldn't check back Kx on the turn unless to induce a bluff, which we probably wouldn't do against a player who loves to make thin calls. He may be value-betting worse here. Since we have a high c-bet % this line will look a lot like we just c-bet and gave up or are checking a mid-strength showdownable hand on the turn. If we fold here we really misplayed the hand IMO and are potentially being badly exploited by this V. What are we calling with on the river if we fold this?

I'd call. Villain's second check dark usually means a very weak made hand. I think he has a bad K sometimes, 8x, or a mid pp. He probably reads your check for weakness, like missed AJ or TT. He can reasonably think he gets value with his 8x hands (since he hero calls with Ax) or get you to fold better when he has worse pp.

I think you beat: 44/66/77, 87s, air = 20 combos
I think you lose: KT, K9s, 98s, 55/99/TT = 29 combos

You're getting close to 3:1. I think calling is slightly +EV. When it can go either way, I usually lean toward calling, partially out of curiosity and part to show I can't be bluffed on the river.

Bolded pretty much summed up my thought process on this.


Solid range analysis, I appreciate with that assessment. Thank you for your post.

I agree. Betting the turn here should define his hand much more easily than check/calling the river as a plan. You can bet 1/3 of the pot on the turn and will quickly find out where you are while getting value.

As played, you only beat a bluff. It seems like an easy fold.

As for preflop, if you are doing this raise with A8suited for a specific purpose, I am good with it, but usually, I would prefer Ace Broadways suited to avoid value cutting ourselves. I find that small suited aces are better suited for semibluffing and stacking worse made flushes.

Looks like super FPS mostly with a hand (sometimes AA) that beats you.

OP, how often does villain limp? How often does he raise?

Do we have absolutely no read on his pre-flop range (tight or loose) or general tendencies (aggressive or passive)? Has he been clicking buttons all session?

I think that as a general rule, a majority of Live 1/2 will not bluff rivers, it's usually the goods or at least better than what I had. Against this particular villain I think it was closer and he could have some bluffs, but as I'm reading this discussion I think I'm leaning towards a fold although both call and fold have appealing arguments. I agree that A8s may be a bit speculative, esp from MP and will look over that for next time

His preflop play and range was generally standard. Mixed in limps with raises and NEVER folded a button. I can recall that he almost never folded to a raise after a limp. He did not raise or limp TOO much though, so I would guess with a decent amount of confidence he had a decent preflop hand selection, SC, Suited 1 gappers, Broadways, pocket pairs

OK, cool man, that's hugely important information.

Pre-flop ranges are incredibly important because they are the foundation of any analysis.

Sounds like he's playing maybe as much as ~30% of hands.

He limps and raises. So maybe he's playing roughly 30/15?

And when he limps, he always calls.

Thinking further, unless this is just a total button clicking bluff (which is certainly possible!), then it's still a fold. His value range for c/c flop and betting river is rich with 98 and Kx. Some sets. AA not never. That said, since he limps wide and always calls raises, he could have so many hand air combos in his range... but he'd really need to c/c the flop with a lot of air to call river. Again, it's possible and, stepping back, perhaps not even a bad play (!) on the the all-time dryest flop. But I don't see any read suggesting this is a call.

This is a spot where I might engage in some friendly chatter, flip over the Ac, and ask the guy "A-high no good?" to see if we get any free information without letting anyone know we folded a pair.

Either way, it has to be somewhat close here given the good odds and villain's wide pre-flop range. I'd fold but definitely make a mental note here (whether he shows or not) for future hands.

Limp pre


I'd call, all you have done is put in a normal C-bet on that board. He might think you do that with everything

*g*

I'm calling here to catch air and all of Vs small pocket pairs that he thinks he is value betting. Our check on the turn after a check dark signals great weakness so he may think we have nothing. Im calling 35 to win 75.

I wouldn't lump 1/2 players together like that. Jonathan Little defines players in a way that I prefer. For example. Straightforward loose passive. This defines a huge pop of live players. They play straightforwardly making our job easy. This is why the bet/fold is so valuable. If you A8suited is on the button, I am 100% good with it.

Because gen pop reads of many 1/2 players make them straightforward, you are correct. If they are betting the river, they probably have it.

raising pre is fine, I'd generally prefer a check behind given that board texture, but against a hero-y V I don't mind it in this case. Turn check behind is good since I think majority of what he's calling with has us beat. However, dark check is almost always a marginal hand. River seems like an easy fold because I don't see too many people dark check and then call to lead out on the river as a bluff, plus i don't see what he's calling on the flop that he's turning into a bluff on the river. And since you're not beating any value hands, I like a fold.

Thank you all for the responses, I appreciate the input. Looks like the responses were pretty mixed. I end up calling here and he showed up with Kx for Top pair and had me beat. Very interesting line from him for sure.

Ah, to clarify, I'd only do this *after* I folded and was mucking my cards

Impossible to give any constructive advice/criticism without knowing stack sizes. Assuming full stacks, I'm folding.

Full stacks, 220 eff