Quote:
Originally Posted by 2OutsNoProb
I don't think it's possible to have made my point any better about our win-percentage when called after several people stated it as being "55-60%", which is completely and utterly wrong.
Stoving the flop vs 99+,ATs+,KJs+,AJo+,KQ (a reasonable range I believe) sits us at ~56%, which is in the 55-60% ballpark I quickly estimated using the rule of 2/4. Having said that, I understand what you mean about this not being our winning percentage if our all-in is called (as obviously hands that are calling our all-in are weighted towards the stronger hands for this flop which we aren't doing nearly as well against, as you've documented). But we also have to take into account our check/raise takes down a decent sized pot (compared to our stack) against the weaker hands that will fold to the all-in (which we thus win 100% of the time against, with 8 high, not a bad result).
"We really don't have any other options, but that doesn't make this option a good one". I can't wrap my head around this statement. We have various choices here (fold, call, raise, all-in, check/all-in, etc.). We pick the best one. If you're agreeing that we don't really have any other choices here, then the intrinsic "goodness" of a move seems rather irrelevant.
We've pretty much beat the horse to death a few times on this one, so I'm just gonna let it go. We all have threads where we kinda lose our way (me probably being near the top of that list).
No worries.