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1/2 NL, did I miss value with top set? 1/2 NL, did I miss value with top set?

04-07-2018 , 11:37 AM
Effective stack is main V ~$250

The table has been doing a lot of limping with all hands, myself and hj have been the only ones opening pots / raising. Main V is HJ who is not a very good player, he has been getting run over all night, quite loose with his opening ranges, late 20s-early 30s, call station-y, over heard him talking about how he just hit 2400 on the slots. The previous hand I called him all the way down the board that was 9 high with 44, I made a set on the river in that hand, but I was calling any bet regardless of if a 4 peeled. okay OTTH

Preflop: 4 limps, I raise to $10 in the co with KK, all 4 limpers call, sb, bb, utg, hj. ($50 in pot)

Flop: K89r
Checks to me I bet $35, hj is only caller. ($120 in pot)

Turn: To
Checks to me I bet $45, hj calls. ($210 in pot)

River: Jo
HJ checks, I check back.

Thoughts:
Preflop I think I should be opening to more around $18ish? I like my bet on the flop. On the turn though I think I should be betting a little more, maybe between $60 & $70. Thoughts on this sizing and ranges I would be getting a call from? Then on the river I think my check is okay because getting check raise jammed is a sick feeling and a higher variance route, and also if I bet the river, what hands are going to call me that are worse? I can make a case for calling in that the hj maybe was tilting a bit in the sense that he is saying "I can't be running this bad" so maybe he makes a dumb hero call and considering he isn't a great player he might not recognize that he could put me in a really tough spot. Idk I'm just unsure if you guys think I missed some value?
1/2 NL, did I miss value with top set? Quote
04-07-2018 , 11:43 AM
Raise like ~$20-25 preflop. $10 isn't going to thin the field.

I probably bet a bit more on flop, like 40-45, with 4 others players on this board.

Bet way more on turn. Like 90-100. AP, I probably just ship the river for V's last $160 if he's loose and prone to call with 2P on this board.
1/2 NL, did I miss value with top set? Quote
04-07-2018 , 11:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by spirit123
Raise like ~$20-25 preflop. $10 isn't going to thin the field.

I probably bet a bit more on flop, like 40-45, with 4 others players on this board.

Bet way more on turn. Like 90-100. AP, I probably just ship the river for V's last $160 if he's loose and prone to call with 2P on this board.
I was worried about him having a Q here. Should I have been worried about that or is it just a situation where if he has it he has it?
1/2 NL, did I miss value with top set? Quote
04-07-2018 , 12:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheShakeDaddy
I was worried about him having a Q here. Should I have been worried about that or is it just a situation where if he has it he has it?
I think you have to weigh the probability of his calling your bet with a worse hand vs. the probability he has a Q and is inducing a bluff on the river with a check.

I think he most likely would have bet a Q on the river since you're checking behind so often. I think it's way more likely he has 2P on this board and just wants a cheap showdown.

But next time, I think it's important to bet bigger so you can get more value from your hand before a scare card like this river comes out.

Last edited by spirit123; 04-07-2018 at 12:27 PM.
1/2 NL, did I miss value with top set? Quote
04-07-2018 , 12:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by spirit123
I think you have to weight the probability of his calling your bet with a worse hand vs. the probability he has a Q and is inducing a bluff on the river with a check.

I think he most likely would have bet a Q on the river since you're checking behind so often. I think it's way more likely he has 2P on this board and just wants a cheap showdown.

But next time, I think it's important to bet bigger so you can get more value from your hand before a scare card like this river comes out.
I agree with this, looking back I think I should have bet more on the turn like you originally said and then jam river since he is checking. A good player would recognize the spot he could put me in and check jam on me. Against this player type I think a jam or some kind of value bet on the river is correct. Thanks man!!
1/2 NL, did I miss value with top set? Quote

      
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