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1/2 NL Despite Tremendous Odds, This is a Fold. Correct? 1/2 NL Despite Tremendous Odds, This is a Fold. Correct?

03-22-2018 , 11:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Donat3llo
Do most itt feel they can sustain sacrificing ev in a game with this blind level?
Yes.
1/2 NL Despite Tremendous Odds, This is a Fold. Correct? Quote
03-22-2018 , 11:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by shorn7
Was V GG by any chance?
That’s hilarious. I award you two points. Well done sir.
1/2 NL Despite Tremendous Odds, This is a Fold. Correct? Quote
03-22-2018 , 11:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lapidator
That table must be excruciating.

We have a nut peddling short stacking nit.

And a humorless nit who won't give action.

This is why I hate playing poker these days.
Yeah, those old nut-peddling curmudgeons are awful to sit with.
1/2 NL Despite Tremendous Odds, This is a Fold. Correct? Quote
03-22-2018 , 12:15 PM
Results: Villain shows T7s and hero feels stupid for folding
1/2 NL Despite Tremendous Odds, This is a Fold. Correct? Quote
03-22-2018 , 12:27 PM
Wow, you're worried he has you in the worst shape and he shows you the dream hand to be against. I guess should we never rule out the spazz factor in live play(gotta be worth a couple %).
1/2 NL Despite Tremendous Odds, This is a Fold. Correct? Quote
03-22-2018 , 12:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Donat3llo
Do most itt feel they can sustain sacrificing ev in a game with this blind level?
Definitely, at least in the games I play.
1/2 NL Despite Tremendous Odds, This is a Fold. Correct? Quote
03-22-2018 , 12:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sixsevenoff
1/2 NL. Four hours into session. Ten handed

Hero ($700, UTG +1):TAG, table probably views him as LAG because table is so tight and hero has been very card live, so he has been raising pf frequently.

Villain ($53, MP1): Super reg; he's at our card room LITERALLY every hour it is open (11AM-2AM) 7 days a week, and no, literally is not an exaggeration. Hero and villain have played several hundred hours together; despite this fact, hero is truly unsure a to how villain views hero's playing style, and realizes he probably doesn't think at all about anyone's playing style. Villain is also a super NIT. He usually doesn't play one hand (besides BB in unopened pot) until an hour or two have passed into a session. He also gets extremely frustrated with the dealers and assumes they're intentionally giving him "bad hands." Earlier in the session villain open limped AQs from MP2, two people limped behind, and a LAG raised it to $16, and villain showed hero his AQs and folded like it was a hero lay down (poetic justice: villain would've flopped trip Q and turned a boat.)

OTTH

BTN straddle $5. SB calls, and it's folded around to hero. Hero looks up to T T and raises to $25. A very flustered villain, who has "gotten a deuce the last 15 hands" looks down and says "let's see what's with my deuce this ****ing ti-," and before he could finish his sentence goes all in. Everyone else folds and it's up to hero. Regardless of the amazing odds, hero can't call knowing that villain has AA or MAYBE KK (though he may even just flat $25, and then go all in on any non A flop), right?

First off, to a select few of you responding, theres no need to be a d*ck. We all come here for hand help/feedback.

OP, these types of hands get in my head when I am currently in them. Sometimes we get in our own heads. With your stack vs his, I think this is a call- but I can see the concern.
1/2 NL Despite Tremendous Odds, This is a Fold. Correct? Quote
03-22-2018 , 01:37 PM
I think an argument is to be made here that calling is also +Image EV

If people at your table are paying any attention at all, they'll be way less likely to give you action after seeing this nitfold against a tilting V. If this was your last hand for the day and you just didn't feel like giving this guy money, I could maybe understand it (although personally I'd still call), but in this case, people will talk.

And yeah, there's no need to flame the OP. Presumably he's trying to get better and this hand is less of a hand strategy and more of a table strategy question.
1/2 NL Despite Tremendous Odds, This is a Fold. Correct? Quote
03-22-2018 , 03:21 PM
Reason OP is getting flamed is because he is being results oriented
1/2 NL Despite Tremendous Odds, This is a Fold. Correct? Quote
03-22-2018 , 03:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nozsr
If he has AA, that's 79.93% to 19.77% with 0.30% chance of chopping.

If he has KK, that's 80.30% to 19.37% with 0.33% chance of chopping.

Assuming all four cards (his and ours) are different suits.

(It is left as an exercise to the reader to explain why the percentages are different between AA and KK.)

Four to one is a reasonable approximation.

With Villain's money in, the pot looks like $88 if my addition is correct. (OK, minus about 4 for the rake, call it $84.)

84 to 28 is about (wrong, it is exactly) 3 to 1.

And we are a 4:1 dog.

If we are dead certain that this is not AK (short stackers can do strange things when frustrated) it's a fold. But if we are not dead certain, it's a call. Why?

If Villain's range actually IS AK, JJ, QQ, KK because he is a frustrated short-stacker, then PokerStove gives us 33.65% equity, which is more like 2 to 1 underdog, not 4 to 1.

The speech combined with the action makes it tempting to think AA or KK.

PokerStove without the AK in Villain's range gives us 81.35 to 18.65, 4.36 to 1.

It is logical, not demented, to fold - but only if we are dead certain about our Villain.
Thank you so much, Nozsr. To be clear, there is a 100% chance he had AA or AK. I've seen how he plays AK, and to which he usually folds it to a big raise pre flop, he is THAT nitty.
1/2 NL Despite Tremendous Odds, This is a Fold. Correct? Quote
03-22-2018 , 03:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lapidator
That table must be excruciating.

We have a nut peddling short stacking nit.

And a humorless nit who won't give action.

This is why I hate playing poker these days.
Not as bad as you'd think, it's literally ONLY him that's the problem. Occasionally there'll be other really nitty players, but no one is even half as nitty as him. I like playing 10 handed, because he doesn't even count as a player, so it's the same thing as 9 handed, and it's impossible to miss him.
1/2 NL Despite Tremendous Odds, This is a Fold. Correct? Quote
03-22-2018 , 03:26 PM
And thank you very much to the posters who have come in my defense. To be fair I fully recognize I shouldn't have "fed" the troll, and that there will be people no matter what internet community there is that are asses for no reason besides the fact that they're anonymous.
1/2 NL Despite Tremendous Odds, This is a Fold. Correct? Quote
03-22-2018 , 03:40 PM
it's not a fold because nobody's range is only AA. I dont care what you say.
1/2 NL Despite Tremendous Odds, This is a Fold. Correct? Quote
03-22-2018 , 03:50 PM
Even if "nobody's range is only AA" - which one could debate -

Even if we give this particular Villain a range of JJ+ not "only AA" ...

... PokerStove without the AK in Villain's range gives us 81.35 to 18.65, 4.36 to 1.
1/2 NL Despite Tremendous Odds, This is a Fold. Correct? Quote
03-22-2018 , 04:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sixsevenoff
Thank you so much, Nozsr. To be clear, there is a 100% chance he had AA or AK. I've seen how he plays AK, and to which he usually folds it to a big raise pre flop, he is THAT nitty.
Assuming you mean KK not AK, the bolded is why you're getting flamed. No, it is not a 100% chance. You can't possibly know that, even if you think you do. It's not like the guy cold 4-bet 100 bbs or something. He raised a 12.5bb open to 26.5bbs all in. Especially when someone has been card dead all night as you describe him, his range is something like JJ+, ATs+, AJo+. The fact that you're trying to play savant and say you know for sure it's only KK-AA is the source of your flaming.
1/2 NL Despite Tremendous Odds, This is a Fold. Correct? Quote
03-22-2018 , 04:18 PM
And if you really are that savant then there is no need to post a thread because there is nothing to be learned from it.
1/2 NL Despite Tremendous Odds, This is a Fold. Correct? Quote
03-22-2018 , 04:22 PM
Since this is LLSNL, the thread has become “I have this mindmeld read (which probably was correct hence I make a thread)” and I should make this hero call/fold/raise/bluff.

If you are a mind reader, and know the relevant math, then high-five yourself and don’t make a thread unless you expect your read to be questioned/ridiculed.
1/2 NL Despite Tremendous Odds, This is a Fold. Correct? Quote
03-22-2018 , 05:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Donat3llo
Do most itt feel they can sustain sacrificing ev in a game with this blind level?
lol... obviously we can sacrifice EV on this hand for the likelihood that it makes the game better.

Or we can sit there and be mind-numbed-ev-seeking-robots and watch all the fish swim away 'cuz the game is miserable.
1/2 NL Despite Tremendous Odds, This is a Fold. Correct? Quote
03-22-2018 , 06:19 PM
I'm calling because I simply don't trust my read that he can't ever do this with AK. I've made some awesome hero folds before and then wanted to punch myself in the nuts because the nittiest nit that ever nitted a nit showed a bluff or just a hand that they completely overplayed.

I guess if you're 100% about this and you've done the maths, that's fine just fold and move on. It's not illegal to use maths and logic to come to an unpopular conclusion at the table.
1/2 NL Despite Tremendous Odds, This is a Fold. Correct? Quote
03-23-2018 , 10:54 AM
Can he never have 88-99 here? Or even AQ and AJ. I've seen short stack nits shove KJ in spots like this out of frustration, especially if you have been active.

This is a snap call, not really even thinking about it.
1/2 NL Despite Tremendous Odds, This is a Fold. Correct? Quote
03-23-2018 , 11:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AvgReg
So you raised 25 and folded for 28 more with tens?? Your father should be ashamed of the demented ****** he raised


I’d be more ashamed of your father then the OP’s father


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
1/2 NL Despite Tremendous Odds, This is a Fold. Correct? Quote
03-23-2018 , 12:55 PM
Literally just ask villain call or fold and do whatever he says. Unless you want to take your $20 and get a whiskey or something.
1/2 NL Despite Tremendous Odds, This is a Fold. Correct? Quote
03-23-2018 , 01:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lapidator
lol... obviously we can sacrifice EV on this hand for the likelihood that it makes the game better.

Or we can sit there and be mind-numbed-ev-seeking-robots and watch all the fish swim away 'cuz the game is miserable.
I think when you consider rake/drop this is likely more true in 2/5 than 1/2. The point being is sacrificing ev at a blind level that already handcuffs you due rake/drop seems questionable.

I'm fine with gambling. Saying this is a snap call everytime at 1/2 with Hero's range read on V seems like a poor choice. If you discount H's range read then that is different. But we can only go with what OP says.
1/2 NL Despite Tremendous Odds, This is a Fold. Correct? Quote
03-23-2018 , 02:41 PM
Here's why I dont like this soulread on villain; it's based around the presumption that he's never lying and always telling us the truth. But he just got done whining about being dealt duece rag 15x in a row. This is clearly a lie. He may have folded the last 15 hands but he's exaggerating the weakness of his cards. He's just being a crotchety old *****, then he proceeds to give this pre-emptive speech about "if I get a duece one more.... IM ALL IN". I mean wtf is that? He's trying to tell us he finally has Aces so he's willing to play? He's telling us he literally got a deuce this time and he's legit spewing? Either story is ridiculous and I dont really care what he has, I'm not folding TT for a minraise that I get to see a showdown with.
1/2 NL Despite Tremendous Odds, This is a Fold. Correct? Quote
03-23-2018 , 02:46 PM
Fair enough
1/2 NL Despite Tremendous Odds, This is a Fold. Correct? Quote

      
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