Looking to improve play - is this one of those spots where I can bluff credibly? Starting stack sizes are approximate.

-V1 is a dealer at the cardroom that is playing after his shift. Plays recreationally here and there. Most likely understands Hero's image.
-Hero is most likely seen as a tight/TAG player.

SB: V1 ($380) - Straightforward 30s WM
Cutoff: Hero ($350) - Low-stakes (1/2, 1/3) tight/TAG, mid 30s AM

Preflop:
Folds to Hero
Hero opens 86 to $10 (standard open size for Hero)
V1 3! to $25
Hero calls.

Flop($52): KJ4
V1 checks
Hero bets $25, V1 calls

Turn($102): KJ4A
V1 checks
Hero checks

River($102): KJ4AQ
V1 bets $30
Hero action?

Thoughts:
1. Based on history and current session, assumption is that V1 will only 3! AK, QQ+ (especially against tight Hero).
2. Flop bet because: (1) No equity moving forward (2) Thought was that V1 cbets AA and AK on flop and checks KK and QQ - $25 may actually fold out QQ 75% of the time (assumption). Plan was to basically fold to any sizeable turn/river bet.
3. River feels like a blocker bet. There is a <1% chance V1 has a T in his range (very confident of this).
4. My read on V1 by River was that he had QQ or KK.
5. Can I raise river to represent a T? Am I correct in thinking that if Hero had AT, KT, QT, JT, TT, it would be played the same way up to the river (JT, TT might check back flop, QT probably bets turn) - Hero can credibly have AT, KT?
6. How much can I raise river so that I represent a T and fold out a set? I was thinking of bumping it up to $125. I was worried he would be stubborn and wouldn't fold a set.

Thanks.

I normally wouldn't bet this flop just because I completely whiffed it and it hits villain's range pretty hard. I mean, if you want to play it as a bluff and target, well, QQ (which is small part of the AA-QQ, AK+) range but does make sense here then I'd probably go bigger. On this flop, he'll have 6 combos of QQ versus like 3 of KK, 12 of AK, and 6 of AA... but QQ definitely does make sense. I don't think a half pot bet would fold out QQ here. So unless you're planning on firing multiple streets with no equity to fold out a small part of his range...

I'm definitely done with the hand by the turn.

The river is weird though, and I think you're right that it's a blocker bet and that he doesn't have any tens in his range while you do have some. It's tempting to raise here and I see where you're coming from.

I'm honestly not entirely sure, but if I did raise I'd make it bigger like between $150-$200. You're polarized here.... I think with this particular hand I lean towards a fold but with like 98 I'd probably raise... interested to hear what others have to say.

I assumed AA and AK c-bet most of the time (>80%), so I'm really thinking he has KK or QQ specifically, so it's 6ish combos (KK, let's say 3 combos of AA+AK (20% of 18)) vs 6 combos QQ (in my mind).

Agree that $25 might not take it down, but I'm seen as a tight player so it should work sometimes (50% maybe) and I don't think sizing up changes things much (i.e. if he has QQ and would fold to a $40 bet, he would fold to the $25 bet).

If I size up large, doesn't it look like I don't want to get called? Would I really make it so large with the nuts? Or are you not concerned at this level of play?

>and I don't think sizing up changes things much (i.e. if he has QQ and would fold to a $40 bet, he would fold to the $25 bet).

I don't know about you, but for me there's a definitely difference between facing a $25 bet into a pot of $50 and facing a $50 bet into a pot of $50. Theoretically, it should generate more folds.

>If I size up large, doesn't it look like I don't want to get called?

Or you're going to fat value. I mean, you would need to work it into a strategy. I think a bet of a bigger size there can make sense if you're balancing hands like KJ or JJ with ones like QT.

I thought about it some more and agree that $25 is typically too small to expect a fold.

I didn't think about balancing with KJ/JJ but it makes total sense.

After the hand, he asked me if I had JJ.

Has to be one of worst flop bets I have seen in awhile. Trying to get fold out of thin air. QQ not folding except from scared money. Which even then, they call down and say it is cooler.

People don't fold sets. Not even on 4 liner to straight. Not good spot to bluff.

If your game is a % rake, never raise to 10, because your pots will be raked more heavily.

Don't like calling the 3 bet with such a weak hand, especially if you think this guy almost always has premiums. As one reason, I'll point again to the rake. Even assuming you can break even on the call in a vacuum, pushing money back and forth at 1/2 is very expensive. Much worse than, say, hitting the blackjack table.

It's not like you have to send a message to this guy that he can't bully you, or you're going to pick off a lot of bluffs with 1 pair.

On the river, I think a raise is fine. I wouldn't bank on him folding a set, but he very well could. He could also have something like AQ.

If he is a straightforward 30s wm, he probably has over 1,000 hours at these stakes and almost never sees someone bluff raise the river. I agree that you could easily have a 10.

The correct play is probably for him to fold and he probably knows it.

Not really sure on the size. Maybe like $110. Only has to work half the time.

Fold to 3b pre. Not a fan of playing oop to a 3 bet. Just my thoughts. I would rather flat a pocket pair in this spot and set mine. 8-6 not so much.

Rake is $5 a hand. I felt we were just barely deep enough to make the $15 call into the $37 pot for implied odds. I was counting on him thinking that my range isn't wide enough to open with 8 high. I agree that it is a fold if I can't get paid when I do hit (i.e. 86x flop).

Agreed if I was OOP. However, I was in position in the CO and he was in the SB (which is how I am so confident about what he was 3! with.

you mainly wanted to be folding 86s to a threebet because bottom of your raise range i mean the reason to play it is to have board coverage i guess.

if i did call the 3 bet i would almost always give up on this flop.

as for river i guess i don't mind a raise, we have to make it huge though, because we are trying to fold out sets and two pairs (which is never a great spot to be in trying to fold out sets and two pairs and a heads up pot.

Interesting replies from all. I think I'm too concerned about folding to 3! too easily - feels exploitable.

I ended up folding since I did not think we had enough of a history together to try and have him fold a set.

He showed KK and asked me if I had JJ.

If it is a % with $5 max, my previous comments apply. You don't have to worry about rake as much as someone dealing with $6+1 or something, obviously. It's still 2.5 bbs, and 3 bbs if you live somewhere where tipping is expected.

If they are just taking $5 out of every pot, I'd expect that much of the player pool raises to $15+ pre and you should too. It's a tough spot with a $200 cap. But you can't have the house taking 50% of the profits when you raise, cbet, take it down.

When you are opening light, 3betting light, or even when you have a hand like AK, winning preflop becomes a lot better. I guess technically, winning pre with AA becomes better than it otherwise would be.

Flop is a snap check he is literally folding here 0% of the time and you are bluffing with 0% equity.

AP snap fold river don't try to get people to fold two pair or sets

I don't really see it as being exploited when we fold our crap to a raise.