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1/2 NL Borgata QQ vs. Re-raise on flop 1/2 NL Borgata QQ vs. Re-raise on flop

08-21-2014 , 10:38 AM
1/2 NL at Borgata in Atlantic City, NJ.

Hero: ($350) 3 Rounds into the game. Playing in position, seemingly tight.

V1: ($250) Older Asian gentlemen, has called a few large pre-flop raises
and check-folded on flop bets.

V2: ($125) Middle-Aged Asian Women, loose aggressive, splashing many pots.

Two limpers to Hero in CO w/ QQ raises to $16. V2 calls on the BTN. V1 calls in the SB. Limpers fold.

Flop: 7 2 6

V1 leads out for $20
Hero calls
V2 raises to $45
V1 folds
Hero folds

What do you think about the position your in with QQ? I read it as V1 had a flush or straight draw (J10, 54) and V2 had either a set (77, 66, 22) or a Big Ace Flush draw (AJ, AK). The near min-raise in my experience represents extreme strength. If I call on the flop its almost a given that she will follow-up on the turn no matter the card.
1/2 NL Borgata QQ vs. Re-raise on flop Quote
08-21-2014 , 10:47 AM
Wow, never folding that. She has $125 to start the hand. I'm jamming this and feeling good about it. If she catches a flush, good for her.
1/2 NL Borgata QQ vs. Re-raise on flop Quote
08-21-2014 , 10:57 AM
Just to elaborate a little bit after my initial reaction.

Vs range could literally be any pocket pair lower than QQ and all straight and flush draws. Not to mention a few top pair hands that rec players think are good. Sets are such a small portion of her range here that it's not even worth worrying about with her stack size.

I'm fist pump shoving this and not thinking twice.
1/2 NL Borgata QQ vs. Re-raise on flop Quote
08-21-2014 , 11:00 AM
.
1/2 NL Borgata QQ vs. Re-raise on flop Quote
08-21-2014 , 11:02 AM
Never folding for her stack size -- especially with her description. I'm jamming, too.

(I wonder what the heck V1 bet and folded with? Weird.)
1/2 NL Borgata QQ vs. Re-raise on flop Quote
08-21-2014 , 11:03 AM
Lmfao get it in geez
1/2 NL Borgata QQ vs. Re-raise on flop Quote
08-21-2014 , 11:05 AM
Insta-ship
1/2 NL Borgata QQ vs. Re-raise on flop Quote
08-21-2014 , 11:08 AM
20 into 50 on the flop seems weak. It could be A7o, 87s, or a myriad of other hands. V2, if a remotely thinking player (or one who has ever read a poker book), should be thinking about squeezing after your call. There is 90 in the pot by the time it gets to v2. You have put her on a very narrow range. Would 88 not be raising here too?

With v1 folding to the raise, I can't see him having either of the narrow range you put him on either. For another 25, almost everyone I play with is peeling another card with a decent draw. Heck, the pot odds are there to peel. 25 to win 150.

After v1 folds, it is heads up. I am calling 25 and re-evaluating the turn. Being OOP makes it a bit difficult, as checking the turn gives v2 a chance to see a free river if on a draw. If she's really LAG, raising with a flush draw or straight draw isn't unheard of.

However, if you really expect she is going to bet the turn, no matter what, and you aren't ready to call off the rest of her stack, folding is probably the right move. I just don't think you're behind here. 88 - JJ would take this line every single time, if not raise bigger. 87, 98, 97, a7, and a myriad of other hands would also take this line. Top pair on a wet board like this is just wanting to end the hand. The raise was badly sized though. 22, 66, and 77 would normally raise more out of fear of the draws.

I think the line I would take (not saying right or wrong) is to call the flop, and bet the turn if the straight and flush draws all missed. Half of the deck is causing a check on the turn and half is causing a bet. Will v bluff for her stack on the turn is the only real question. She's put in over 1/3 of her stack and has less than a PSB left for the turn anyway. I tend to think as I write, so I won't go back and change what I wrote, but after further analysis of the pot size if I call in relation to her remaining stack, I actually think I'm just going to shove here. You fold out any draws and you're losing to 22, 66, 77, kk, and aa. kk and aa should be heavily discounted, so you're losing to 6 combos right now. Truth be told, with her stack size preflop, set mining was a bad call preflop on her part anyway.

In short, jamming should be the +EV play, with folding being the low variance play. You're already in for 36, the pot is bloated, with less than a PSB available for the turn anyway. I just don't see folding as being the correct play. Deeper, I can understand wanting to protect your stack, but folding QQ on this board, just seems like an overly-nit fold.
1/2 NL Borgata QQ vs. Re-raise on flop Quote
08-21-2014 , 11:09 AM
100% getting it in on the flop.
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