1/2 NL Atlantic City Caesars. Suited board. T/R Trips.
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 2,831
Yep. I do make that argument. Against a non solid non old player, I think you should be calling the river a lot. I think fish have heard the phrase "only way to win this pot is to bet at it" once too many times. They call too much on the flop and turn, and all of a sudden wake up and bet on the river, either because they have the nuts and were too stupid to bet it earlier, or because they have nothing and were too stupid to fold it earlier.
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 15,991
In other hands, maybe, here, no. The flop is checked here and the turn bet was 40% of the pot. He isn't bluffing very often here and he rarely if ever is valuing a worse hand. He likely wouldn't bet Qx here, and for him to have a worse King means it'd have to be offsuit and either a marginal (KT, K9) or complete garbage (K7 and down) hand. It really is simply impossible that Villain's bluff range + his losing-to-KJ-value-range here are more than a tiny percentage of his overall range, and we aren't getting great odds.
