Why LLSNL is awesome, reason #125: Debating ranges of "falling asleep drunk" vs. "active drunk".

I stoved a range of all pairs, AJs+, AK, KQs, and JTs, it's still basically a flip. Add in the small chance that the BB or one of the limpers shows up with a monster & I'm leaning towards a fold.

So you think that he will shove with 22 but not with AQo? Doubtful.
When we add AQo into the equation we go from a 50.2 favorite to a 52.0% favorite. That's pretty hefty in this pot.

Even if I have 52% equity vs the shover, that's discounted by the small chance of BB/limper calling with a range of AA-KK.

And even if my true equity is 52%, I think I shouldn't be looking for such small-edge situations when much larger +EV spots present themselves frequently in a 1/2NL game on a Saturday night.

Your EV is +11 dollars if you're a 52% favorite.

If his range is tens-plus our EV is -28 dollars.

If his range is queens-plus our EV is -47 dollars.

If his range is kings-plus our EV is -86 dollars.

11 dollars doesn't seem hefty to me.

Against the loose cannon, your crushing hand, earns us three dollars of EV. Hopefully there's no rake in this game.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.655% 49.09% 00.57% 127764520 1473618.00 { AKs }
Hand 1: 50.345% 49.78% 00.57% 129558452 1473618.00 { TT+, AQs-AJs, JTs, 87s }

I am shocked at how many people say call...this is a fold unless you have seen the drunk make this move with rags

I very often play poker after a night out in AC & I don't care how drunk I am, I am smart enough to know that people are going to pinpoint me as a target because of it. I tighten up and overbet w pocket pairs & big hands & sooner or later everybody is wondering how the drunk guy is the table leader

Drunk doesnt inherantly = spewy

If you are passing up any edge that is +EV you arent maxmizing your winrate.

Boy I have to disagree with you based on my experience. Maybe small sample size or whatever, but I've seen falling asleep drunks make the strangest shoves, plays, ever. In my experience the guy is more likely to have a hand like T7 or 75 than KK/QQ.

No but there tends to be a correlation. If there isn't, I might as well just start pounding booze while I play, it would be a lot more fun.

Will you please construct an actual range of the hands that the drunk guy could have here instead of just showing us that you can use pokerstove.

I took the range from the post that I was responding to that a loose cannon would have. It didn't seem to be a very profitable call. Personally I don't know his exact range. I'm absolutely sure that when someone bets 20x pot that their range could include a lot of hands and we still can't make a profitable call.

What if he shoves with these 56 combos? Snap fold.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.669% 42.41% 00.26% 104571996 638640.00 { AKs }
Hand 1: 57.331% 57.07% 00.26% 140722500 638640.00 { 88+ }

What makes you so absolutely positive that he's shoving a bunch of off-suit dominated hands?

For me drinking impairs other parts of my game a lot more: The ability to read ranges, the ability to remember how each v has played previous hands, sometimes even the ability to do simple math. It definitely is not conducive to playing your best. But it never makes me suddenly want to gamble with K-4 off or Anything like that. Maybe it does for some ppl. But for me, the way to beat me when im drunk is post flop, its not like alcohol is gonna make me donk away pre

This. As someone who occasionally plays drunk (only 1-2, never 2-5), I can tell you I tighten up my game immensely preflop to simplify the whole game, and nut peddle because no one would believe me when I go ballistic with betting looking obviously drunk. (as you can see in this thread)

I dunno guys.

I was playing at MGM last week and there were a few people there that I thought were pretty competent.

But when they started drinking I saw some crazy stuff.
I'm pretty sure that drinking will make your do weird stuff.

I'm snapping with AK here.

You saw someone else betting light in this spot -- we've never seen this person betting light.

You assigned this (possibly hopeful?) range earlier in the thread:
Hand 0: 47.472% 36.38% 11.09% 97179348 29627040.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 52.528% 41.44% 11.09% 110685996 29627040.00 { AKs }


.52528 * 332 - 163 is the EV of calling. If there's no rake we're making $11.39.

Worse case EV is (.12141 * 332 - 163) -122.69.

Let's assume you're right 90% of the time about this Villain's range and 10% of the time you're wrong: 90% * 11.39 - 10% * 90% * -122.69 is a negative number.

Why do you assign over a 90% accuracy to your range, never having seen this particular person shove light, and knowing if you are 100% accurate you only stand to make 11.39 on average?

I still contend that this is a very easy fold.

I'm not really going to get into this.
But if you're trying to tell me that anyone (who is drinking) is only shipping AA only here then I can't really debate with you anymore.

You think that he's folding QQ? Or KK? Are they somehow raising those instead? Are they trying to play coy? But somehow leveling us by shoving with AA becuase 'lol no one shoves with AA'?

You can think it's a fold. That's fine. But if you tell me that it's a fold because AKs is a 12% dog to AA, then we can't have a reasonable debate.

^^this.