1/2 NL AKo in trouble - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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1/2 NL AKo in trouble

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04-23-2014 , 06:28 AM

kenshi3

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 282

Hero - winning image, effective stack $800, young aggressive player, never shown any bluffs

Villain - Tight Reg $200 stack, hasn't really played any hands, showed down with QJ broken draw and tried to bluff , but failed.

Hero on SB, 4-5 limps, Hero raises to 20.

Villain UTG Calls, MP calls .

Flop comes:

A 7 2 rainbow

Hero bets 30 , Villain calls, MP folds.

Turn:

5

Hero bets 50, villain shoves, Hero?

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04-23-2014 , 06:42 AM

TheCake

grinder

Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 521

Well theres 180 in there before he jams. He is gai for 150 straight, so its gonna cost you 100 to win 230 giving you ~2.5/1 its an easy call math wise imo.

As far as his hand range goes hes gonna turn over some sets here cause his flat on the flop with a player behind. Also I feel like A7 would play the same way, I feel like A 2 would raise the flop and not the turn.

It looks bad but you still have outs against all Ax hands that have made 2 pair and and even more outs against hands like 5-7 and the like.

Looks like a crying call that turns into a fist pump.

Last edited by TheCake; 04-23-2014 at 06:49 AM.

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04-23-2014 , 09:34 AM

iraisetoomuch

banned

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 37,476

Turn has $120 we bet $50, he shoves for $150 total.
Pot will have $320 total.
We need to call $100 to win $320 I think.

Getting 3.2:1 I can't really fold here.

We are 31% vs 77, 22, AKs, AKo, AQs, A7s, A2s.
We are 23% vs 77, 22, AKs, A7s, A2s, AKo.
We are 25% vs AK, 22, 77.

So, I'm not folding.

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04-23-2014 , 09:58 AM

Jake Stanton

grinder

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 437

Quote:

Originally Posted by kenshi3

Hero - winning image, effective stack $800,

Villain - Tight Reg $200 stack

effective stacks $200 or $800?

assuming 100bb eff stacks i don't see how we can get away from it getting better than 3 to 1. i don't expect to win often but we only need 25% equity to make it a +EV call. board is really dry so it's hard to find hands in his range that we beat but i still make the crying call getting such good odds.
if eff stacks are 400bb deep then you can't call with only tptk

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04-23-2014 , 10:21 AM

kenshi3

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 282

Sorry about that, villain has $200, I have $800 .

Results:

Hero called, Villain showed 77.

Afterwards, I thought about it, WHAT else could he shove with? He wasn't bluffing , I know that for sure, he was sitting around for a while to play a hand, he would never call $20 with any non pocket pair, AJ+ , so it was either 22, 77 or A7 ( doubt it) . But I made the hero call and forced myself to believe he has AQ , but would he really raise ALL in with AQ ? he probably woulda just called. **** me, shoulda thought before doing it. I blame the double shot crown + coke.

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04-23-2014 , 11:01 AM

Jake Stanton

grinder

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 437

Quote:

Originally Posted by kenshi3

lol... very few players are ever getting away from this hand as played. i mean if you knew 100% that he never gets it in with worse then we should fold.

only other option imo is to pot control the turn by c/c and reevaluate river but i still think it would be next to impossible to get away from it only 100bb's deep.
chalk it up to variance

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04-23-2014 , 11:09 AM

beauvanlaanen

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 12,487

Simply based on math I think it's a call. However, I think V would play a flopped set the same way.

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04-23-2014 , 05:26 PM

Steve00007

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 9,163

For villain to have AK or AQ here he would have to limp those hands UTG (he didn't raise pf when he had the chance). I thought this was an easy call, but now I'm thinking this decision is much closer than I thought. Is villain really never raising pf even with AKs? When we significantly reduce the number of combos for AK and AQ, we become a much bigger underdog.

OTOH, with some villains that fit the description, AJs and ATs are possible, and when those hands are in villains range our equity increases dramatically. So now I'm starting to lean towards a call again.

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04-23-2014 , 05:51 PM

Troyble

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 345

I don't like your bet sizing. Id go 40 otf, shove turn and expect to stack AQ-AT often enough to make up for the times he has 22 or 77. If he's one to fold 22 utg, its not even close.

Note: this may only work for me because my image is usually that of a complete and total spewtard, so your results may vary.

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04-23-2014 , 06:24 PM

#10

Clark292

centurion

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 157

There is a man that I use to play with that literally only got it in with the nuts to the close to it. There were plenty of times that I would be getting the right odds to call based on math but it was so slim that I was ahead. We have the right odds to call but if V isn't getting it in with worse then we should be folding.

You pointed out that he tried to bluff earlier and it failed, with that in mind I dont see a tight player trying it again.

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04-23-2014 , 06:39 PM

#11

RED FACE

adept

Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 858

It's amazing the variation of play around the world. I'm a tight reg and would never think of limp calling to 10x with 77 as the first caller with a 100bb stack. There are tight regs who aren't very good who will limp call with AK though.

There are some here who's experience, I suppose, tells them that A7s, A2s and AQ are possible: What a game they must play in.

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04-24-2014 , 04:06 PM

#12

Angrist

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 3,887

:grunch:

Need more context for V's busted draw to make the result helpful.

Raise pre is find. Sizing is good too since we're OOP and would prefer to limit the field.

Flop bet too small. $60 in the pot, make it $45.

On the turn .... have a plan. The remaining stacks are so small that any additional bets are going to be all in. Anticipate that before you make the bet.

AP ... call. You're getting 3:1 with TPTK. If he called to set mine he got the wrong price anyway.

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