in this video, villain 3bets and then 5bet shoves against utg, a competent regular (and it's really not all that bad if utg has a fair number of bluffs in his range, which he might, since he can so easily represent KK+).

this is completely different. a spewy shortstack ships first in.

@op: you are either shipping or folding, and it is highly unlikely for v2 to fold to only 100 more. v2's flat screams strength and as a default i'm folding, but if you really trust your read that she's weak due to how she is acting, then shove, the side pot against her will absorb some of the risk

Yup...super easy fold.

Nits who only want to get it in with a huge edge ITT.

Instead of saying "easy shove" how about looking at hand ranges and deciding if we have equity or not? It seems like we do.

Sorry i wasn't saying this is the reason we should fold here, just thought it was a good hand to post the vid up on.

Rather than berating both the folders and the callers, maybe you could've run a simple Pokerstove...such as follows:


44,001,786,136 games 37.385 secs 1,176,990,400 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 22.259% 21.79% 00.47% 9586055492 208116909.83 { 55+ }
Hand 1: 43.873% 43.33% 00.54% 19067409746 237568629.83 { TT+ }
Hand 2: 22.123% 17.97% 04.16% 7905976422 1828461973.67 { AKo }
Hand 3: 11.745% 07.54% 04.21% 3315960317 1852236645.67 { AJo+ }


I also ran a few other simulations, and assuming that there is at least one pair in the mix, AKo never has more than 28% equity..and any pair TT+ knocks the equity down below 25%, presumably due to card removal for a straight.

Consequently, the only logical reason to call is if you think you can win a large side pot against a smaller ace or king.

As a hypothetical, how much would this change if we held AKs instead of AKo?
I recall reading somewhere that the suitedness matter much more in these multiway spots.

these ranges are too tight imo

This. That's the problem. And we're still getting what sounds like a decent overlay on the side pot, it's not like it's a real 4 way all in.

Someone keep running stove on this because I seriously want to know the correct answer to this. OP, how did the hand play out?

The specific ranges don't matter that much, since one really has to give all of the villain's ridiculously wide ranges to get AKo's equity over 28%. And since two of the three Villains will be all-in preflop, and Hero has only $200 to begin the hand, this only leaves an extra $88 that Hero can win from Villain 2 in the side point.

Although Hero's decision may not be the "super easy fold" I first thought, doing anything other than folding seems like a high variance play for what is looking to be close to an neutral EV situation.

The final hand outcome was definitely interesting (and tells you how much of a donk-fest my table was). I did end up folding my cards, for all the reasons we've discussed. For running scenarios, my hand was AK The other players held:

V1: A6
V2: QJ
V3: AK

The board came down: 33729. AK took down the pot. V3 and I would've chopped if I'd called, and/or I would've taken the side pot with a shove.

However - it could have easily gone another way. My fears of my outs being gone were validated. (The big blind said afterward he had also folded an ace, so all aces were accounted for). Any pocket pair, which you assume is present with three players ahead of you, would have won. Pre-flop, V2 with QJ actually had 41% equity against mine and V3's 19-20%. V1 was straggling at 18% with A6, though he was right there due to having three 6's as outs to our 2 remaining kings.

V3's play makes perfect sense here - it's the same thing I would've done if he hadn't been involved. But since he was - here's how things ended up. Thanks again for all your responses!

Don't be too results oriented. What mattered is how your hand did vs. their ranges.

Given the hands they showed, especially V1 and V2, not shoving was bad.

That's a shame.

If you are properly rolled this thought should never enter your mind. You don't "wait for better spots"... if you are giving up any potential +EV situation whatsoever, which I believe you are doing here.

I bring 4 max buy ins every time I play, just for tables like this. Fasten your seatbelt and ride the variance train.

Yes. This happens. Get past it. The argument for passing up thin EV situations in tournaments is valid (though also could be argued for pages and pages). But in cash, I want every single thin edge there is. The long run is made up of all of your EV decisions, the thin ones count too. Actually they are more important imo.

To put someone on a range of TT+ is kind of silly especially because that's giving them credit for smoothcalling with AA/KK to induce overcalls which is a play you aren't going to see by 99.9% of $1/$2 donkeys in this spot. And if they had QQ/JJ they'd probably be scared and shove.