I have a tight image. Most of my preflop raises are winning pots uncontested. I have not 3-bet a pot in 5 hours at the table.

Villain is Navy guy; white male in his mid 40s. He bought in for $300 when the table opened and quickly got up to 500. He was playing a TAG style, betting his strong hands decisively. I have not seen him get out of line. His momentum was halted when he doubled up the LAG kid twice, both times for less than $100. Navy guy got his money in good both times and was rivered. He has been fairly quiet since then, and eventually added on for 200.

I have slightly less than 300; Villain has 450+.

Villain opens to 10 in HJ, CO folds, Button folds, I 3-bet to 35 in SB with AA, BB folds, Villain calls.

Flop (72): J86

Villain checks out of turn; no read on whether it was intentional.

I bet 55. Villain starts playing with his chips, momentarily counting out 55 from his stack. Then, without putting any chips into the pot, he announces "raise" and pauses for a few seconds before saying, "All in."

I ???

Fold.

Given V's description and Hero's lack of 3-bet over 5 hrs the 3bet from the SB must look a lot like KK+ to V.

I think it's a very close decision. Did you get a feel for if he plays a lot of poker or not? I think if he's a standard donk, he has something like KK, QQ, or AJ most times, and he thinks he's protecting it. If he is an experienced regular, then he has JJ or 88, and as Sebastes surmised, he's trying to get you to put it in with your overpair.

I think I'd call. You do better assuming people are idiots at live poker than assuming they are any good. You'll be right way more often.

That is likely true, but does villain think Hero is tight-weak and would be willing to give up or does he think Hero has his first good hand in 5 hours and so will pay him off because he's unable to let go?

Also, couldn't villain put AK in Hero's range?

Still, 410 to win 180? Is villain smart enough to recognize that if he makes a more pot-size raise it invites hero to shove and trying to take the lead with his AJ?

It's probably a call unless you have a better read than you presented.

We're getting 2:1.

If we're facing a range that has all 9 combos of sets and AJ - even when it's super blocked by our AA - we still have 37% equity. If you add in a QQ, some flush draws, etc., and I'm not saying we should, it's an easy call. I was going to press you to get a better sense of his pre-flop calling range after playing for 5 hours... like, can he have T9, Jx, etc., but now that I think about it more, I'm not sure it matters that much since his range of hands that is well ahead - sets - is quite narrow.

Is he tilting from getting rivered twice? That might increase the likelihood he'd want to shove to "protect his hand" on this type of board.

My impression was that he plays quite a bit. Some of the comments he made, as well as the way he handled his chips and such, indicated that he is not a novice.

However, he did make a few comments here and there about how he is a gambler (i.e. debating whether to call a big preflop 3-bet with suited connectors, "I have to see a flop this time," etc.).

Despite these comments, his play didn't seem to match up with them. He appeared to be pretty solid, and I didn't see any evidence of him fooling around.

I don't believe tilt was a factor. Those two suck-outs happened in the first hour the table was open. They were for relatively small amounts, and he was winning otherwise. He seemed to take the beats in a gracious, good-natured way.

This is several hours later. He left for an hour to eat lunch. Otherwise, he's been fairly quiet, as I suspect his rush of cards has regressed to the standard.

If this guy is paying attention at all, which I suspect he is, I can't imagine that he would put AK in my range. It's my first 3-bet of the day, and I've been a rock for the most part.

Not sure what you mean by this part.

So we have no clue what his 3 bet callin range is? If we can ever put flush draws/ 97s or 10 9s then we call. I think is def possie that KK and sometimes QQ are in his range As well so some of the time we are a big favorite.

It was (and often is) hard to get a sense of what he is folding/calling/4-betting in a game with so little reraising preflop.

That tell is so ridiculously strong, but we're at the top of our perceived range other than flopping a set of jacks, the board is wet, the SPR is less than 4, and villain could be doing this with QQ because it's an lol overpair and the pot is inflated, so I'm not folding.

What tell? The out-of-turn check? Please explain.

I definitely concur with this principle. However, the 5 hours I've played with the guy leads me to believe he is an above-average 1-2 player, and certainly not a complete poker moron.

The shove certainly felt like an overbet, but given the effective stack (mine), I don't think it's really that far out of line. The pot is 180 with his 55, and I have a little more than 200 left, so it's just over a pot-sized bet.

A couple possibilities:

1) AK or AQ (or even KQ) if he's really in the gambling mood preflop.

2) He has a set but is scared of another diamond coming.

I'm not sure what to think. When he said "raise," I was expecting the ever popular "100 more" as he slides out a stack of chips.

The out-of-turn check then shove over the top of a bet to be more precise. Or the "act weak and trap then shovel money in the pot" as I like to call it.

Ok well since we don't know for sure I'd go with something like AKd AQd KK QQ JJ 88 so I think it's a crying call. Just a sick spot but I think he does this with his overs and flush draws and I have a hard time putting squarely on sets. If he shows something goofy it will be good info for any future conflicts with this Villan. Just seems to exploitable to fold.

I agree that I can't just automatically dump an overpair at the first sign of trouble. However, I also hate getting 100+ big blinds in postflop with one pair and no draw.

This is a call. You'll have to fade some outs, but you're ahead almost always. Hero has a tight image and has made his first 3b of the day, so if V thinks at all then he knows he isn't getting proper odds to set mine. That makes 66 and 88 combos very unlikely and JJ relatively unlikely. 86s, T9s, 97s, Axdd and other random suited diamond hands are most of his range. If he weights you toward AA and KK, then his draw hands have pretty good equity when called and he clearly has some fold equity since you are thinking about folding. OP, are you comfortable taking a coin flip? You are a slight dog against T9dd which is his fairest draw hand.

Comfortable? No, but if I'm supremely confident he has just a draw, I'll do it if I have to. I was mostly worried about JJ and 88. I know that's a narrow range, but when the guy hasn't done anything crazy all day, I'm wary that he must have a big hand.

I folded. Villain did not show.

The way he had been playing, I just couldn't see him putting 2/3 of his stack at risk without a big hand. Of course, he may think KK or QQ is the nuts, especially if he hasn't been paying attention.

I somewhat regret the fold, because as a friend said, I basically have to put him on specifically JJ or 88 (or to a lesser extent 66) to make it a sure fold.

As I said, I hate putting 100+ BBs in after the flop with one pair and no draw. However, in some situations, I think I need to be willing to do it. While I generally assume I can find better spots to get all my money in the pot, that's not always the case, and even slight edges need to be taken advantage of from time to time.