What is your checking range in this spot?

I’m always betting 99-QQ here because they need more protection against overcards and we need good valuehands to balance our bluffs.

Its not that I don’t want to get value from AA, its the fact that when stacks go in after b/b/b, AA isn’t usually favored to win vs their calling range. So I choose to bet 2 streets in most cases and for AA, its turn and river.

It’s also worth noting that most PPs aren’t going to call 3 streets anyway so we don’t miss value often at all and we might even gain some extra value when their c/folds catch a pair or draw ott not to mention added value from bluffcatching.

If villain isn’t folding suited hands pre, he can have way more 8x combos than 14.

maybe as good as it gets at first, but you said it, they're showing aggression. This flop is so all-or-nothing that 135bb seems a bit too much to just say they're getting hands as weak as 99 and TT in there. Even JJ for V2 is unreasonable after V1 pushes.
And remember we have the A, so what flush draws are you talking about here? and are you relatively confident they're just going to ship in KQs or worse on this flop 3 ways? Seems pretty optimistic...

also again just +1 on everything GettingGood just posted

My checking range is my misses except for AK with a spade and AQ with the Ace of spades. I'd also check back 99 and TT if I'm on my A-game.

You shouldn't have many bluffs on this board when a tight player cold calls your 3b oop. "Protection" is a meaningless concept, just throw it away. Your strategy here is deeply exploitable, because whenever you bet, you are pretty much always folding to a raise.

This is not true. Villain 2 never has AA beat in this spot unless he has quad 8s. So b/b/b is certainly the preferred line against him. Villain 1 can have AA beat, but if he's just check-calling, he probably has 99-QQ, and you want to keep betting.

As noted repeatedly, you miss a ton of value from Villain 2 by checking.

No, he can't. He raised to 4bb from MP. We don't have a maniac read on him, so realistically what 8's does he have? A8s, T8s, 98s, 87s, 86s, 88 - that's 11 combos. The other three that made up my count of 14 are the combos of pocket 44. Like MAYBE he can have J8s and Q8s, but that's only four additional combos, not way more.

(Also, if he has more suited 8s, then he must also have more flush draws to bluff with).

lol at even considering checking this flop. It's about as great of a flop as you could want (save for flopping top set) to go for 3 streets.

Checking loses so much value versus 99-KK it's insane.

Even if you don't get three streets, the flop is one of the two where you are almost GUARANTEED to get value on this board as no one will fear that YOU have an 8 or 44 so they will call you down much lighter.

Not only that, but there are a ton of overcards on the turn that can come that can kill our action versus someone holding a smaller pair (say 55-JJ). We want them to put $ in NOW versus seeing another overcard to their pair and folding.

I hope this clears my thoughts regarding this spot.


Edit: if villain has more suited eights, the 8x/flushdraw ratio isn’t in our favor combinatorily speaking.

Surely we're betting for value. We have the best two pair against a cold caller who usually has an overpair.

It is worth noting that if they aren’t afraid of an eight otf, they most certainly aren’t afraid of it ott after hero checks the flop.

You are playing vs their ranges though. While parts of the ranges are more incentiviced to fold, others are improving to tp kind of hands and draws that have poor equity vs us but might easily bet or call ott.

Also, hands like 55 are more likely to call 2 barrells ott and otr when the runout is relatively dry than 2 barrels otf and ott, regardless of the turn card. (Imo)

Agreed. That being said, I still think betting flop is best because it begins to define their range somewhat so makes the rest of our hand easier for us to play and will get value from hands that might not call a turn bet if a spade falls or a high card below their PP. I would rather make sure I get at least one street instead of hoping for a blank turn and trying to get 2 streets later.

i fold the range vilian 1 is very strong, and you have the A of spades are already taking out of his range the nutsflushdraw

Idk if you misread the preflop action or what, but this is a 3b pot that we 3b. 8x is a very very small portion of our range. I also have no idea what you're talking about with "assumptions about V1's slowplaying frequency." Nor do I understand why you want to balance your low bluff frequency by betting the worst hands in your value range instead of the best, but ok.

The idea of calling a raise and then folding to a shove which is less than pot sized on the turn is a great way to get owned by flush draws and worse overpairs. How often does it go c/r flop for more than 1/3 of the effective stack, then check and give up ott? People aren't bluffing these spots with air multiway. They usually have a hand they want to go with.

We are supposed to call very small portion of our range when we are facing raise and a 3betshove otf. We don’t have to defend as much because we share that responsibility with bb. (In order to prevent villains 3bets to show immediate profit)

I just meant that you assumed he will call only with 99-QQ. In reality he could just as easily decide to flat 8x otf.

After thinking about this little more, I concede that 99 (maybe TT too) might be too weak to bet otf and performs slightly better as a check

I absolutely never said that my line vs single villain would be to fold turn. Infact, I’m calling worse when facing said action. I probably don’t have 3bet range otf vs this villain. So (after b/c vs V1 otf) I’m calling QQ, 50% of KK and 8x and folding TT,JJ, few flushdraws ott. Obviously depending on the turncard and sizing. I’m folding air and weakest bluffs otf and continuing with said range.

So my checking range has combos that will call down allmost always. (AA,50%KK)
Then combos that call often once ui. (99,AK)
Then mostly folds like AQ and flop giveups
Then also hands that can make very strong hands and can be ahead sometimes ott when calling ui. (AKss, AQss, AJss)

This way I have weak hands to bluff/fold with and good hands to vbet/call with at any turn or river. Notice that I’m slightly overfolding otr with my range and against optimal ranges I should call more bluffcatchers like 99. It’s rarely the case in these games so I feel ok folding little more than I should. Also , and this is not significant, but my river folding range improves sometimes to good bluffcatchers so we can make few more calls with AK on average.

Fwiw I think pio would put some % of AA to our flop betting range for sure but it would prefer checking (I’m just assuming, I haven’t checked it.) umfortunately, I’m not nearly as good as pio in balance/frequencies so I’m checking it almost always to make it easier for myself. Anyway, we are arguing over rather small difference in ev. Still, I think this is good discussion to have from range building perspective.

I’d like to hear your thoughts on my overall strategy in this spot and to know how you construct your ranges here for the sake of learning. After all, that’s why we are here. Cheers.

I think their turn actions define their ranges well too. When they check twice on this board it’s really hard for them to be even close to balanced. Also if villain 2 leads out and V1 raises, we can use that info to adjust. Even when v2 donks and V1 calls we can roughly make same kind of assumptions about his range that we could were we to bet flop.

We are still getting that 1 street with other parts of our range and I would argue that getting some extra folds from their low PPs ott isn’t really significantly bigger loss in ev than what we gain from the parts of their ranges that improves or decides to bluff. It’s also true that when they overfold the turn, our bluffs benefit from it.

Edit: if both villains are checking to me ott I’m betting my whole range twice as an exploit. This doesn’t happen often but is immensely profitable spot if my assumptions hold true about their checking twice range.

AllTheCheese is making a lot of sense in this thread

Easy fold. Especially against a tight-passive guy that suddenly gets active and raises.

I think you misread my whole post. My argument was that we should be the flop initially for value, but I advocated folding to the subsequent action.