Villain has been at table for about two orbits. No info on him really, other than he bought in full and I havent seen him do anything stupid yet. Has played two or three hands. 40s white guy, if thats relevant.

Hand:
(eff stacks 200)
Hero UTG raises to 10 with AA, V calls from MP1, table folds

Flop, pot ~20
J74
Hero bets 10, V raises to 35. Hero thinks for a bit and calls.

Turn, pot ~90
4
Hero checks, V bets 45. Hero?

Misread this board in first post.. Probably flatting here.. V either has a boat now or you are good so go by ur reads of v

But it's a fantastic turn card, no?
Esp against a villain who isn't thinking too much.
He may have J7 here, and was obviously good on the flop, and think he's still trying to get value from AJ/KJ/QJ/JT while now we've just gotten ahead of them.

Board: Jd 7s 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.346% 40.35% 00.00% 64707 0.00 { AA }
Hand 1: 59.654% 59.65% 00.00% 95673 0.00 { JJ, 77, 44, AJs, KJs, J7s, AJo, J7o }

Seem about right maybe?

The turn helps us against that range.
Board: Jd 7s 4h 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 68.182% 68.18% 00.00% 4500 0.00 { AA }
Hand 1: 31.818% 31.82% 00.00% 2100 0.00 { JJ, 77, 44, AJs, KJs, J7s, AJo, J7o }

Call and c/c river and be mad at yourself for the value you missed against villain's ******edly played KJ.

I find it really impossible to fold to this flop bet against an unknown especially with the $10 cbet. If your goal is to induce, you definitley succeded. I expect a lot of Jx to raise this flop based on your sizing.

On the turn, this is an awesome card. Sure, his 77/JJ are boats, but who cares? It discounts the amount of set combos drastically, and we are ahead of J7ss now. Now Jx also likes this card, and based on his bet sizing, there is plenty of Jx and rando bluffs in his range. Let's let him think Jx is ahead here a lot and keep his bluffs in, so I call the turn.

On the river I plan on doing a lot of jamming myself unless a second Jack hits. This is because we are way underrepped and I would be sick to my stomach if QJ, KJ, AJ checks back this river. We MUST bet this river especially because I can't imagine we are ever folding to a shove from him OTR anyways. I expect him to check all his river range behind except boats and bluffs, which is a huge loss of value.

//end thread

Onward, then:

Hand:
(eff stacks 200)
Hero UTG raises to 10 with AA, V calls from MP1, table folds

Flop, pot ~20
J74
Hero bets 10, V raises to 35. Hero thinks for a bit and calls.

Turn, pot ~90
4
Hero checks, V bets 45. Hero calls.

River, pot ~180
7
Hero?

Easy all in now. He has QUADS?! or boats, or bluffs/Jx (most likely). Due the pot size and combinations available, this is an easy shove assuming you aren't folding. Again, he's checking back all Jx and we lose all value.

Bottom line is if you cannot be checking with plan to calling here.

shove> c/folding >>> c/calling

****I didnt look at effective stacks... B4 below post...Guess its a jam...****** but this more of a bluff than value.

Im not jamming this card... Prolly betting like 65 to get called by Jx and folding to a raise. Yuk.

Bet $65 and fold for ~$35 more? Is math idiotic?

River is not a terrible card, I mean its not my favorite, and its better than Jx. There are less sets now than otf.

Bet fold on river is really bad. He could've flatted with qq or kk pre or overplay aj and think he has the nuts here and jam on u especially since its so hard for u to have a 7 or 4 here and u are repping only jj (since many villains proably expect u to reraise flop with overpair). Either check call or bet call or jam.

What u should do depends on what hands u think hell call with if u bomb river. U really only lose to jj,74,j7 and I think top set flats flop an awful lot of the time so I'm really only afraid of j7 or 74. If he plays kk,qq,aj like this often AND can't fold river then just shove otherwise check call

He's probably checking back jx, kk,qq anyways. Peopl have mubs and blow at value betting thin rivers, c/call sucks. If we aren't folding then bet. I would vomit if he checked back those hands we beat (which he will). sooo if ur not folding OP, jam.

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c/c or shove here are both fine. Bet sizing on Turn shows a little weakness/value with a JX. I think you are good here quite often.

Not sure why you tanked a bit on the Flop other than raises are always something to ponder and it may have made you look weaker than you really are at this point. A think it is a naked JX.

c/c seems the best since you are probably not going to get called by worse very often on a 2x paired board. GL

how is V betting with worse on a double paired board?

Donk shoving this river. V is very unlikely to have a 7 or a 4 except for quads... could have jacks full, but I feel like he will call us with AJ, QQ KK which we beat.

C/f if you think Villain won't call with those hands (He somehow thinks you called a raise otf with a 7 or a 4.

Depending on villain I might shove turn or donk shove non J rivers.

What's the merit for b/3b the flop, b/c then lead turn, and b/c then x/c turn?

It's super unlikely he has J7. Mostly poorly played J's and quads. I guess shoving gives him nearly 3-1 on a call so he could pay off with decent J's here.

Lol at b/f.

That is like the nut good card for you other than an ace. Jam this ish

I'm clicking it back on the flop. As played shove turn after he bets, perfect turn card. Def not folding river either with these stacks. I would expect to see QQ/KK/AJ more often than anything else here.