This hand has been stuck in my head since it happened and I need some input.
Been at the table for about three orbits,and this was the fourth hand I played.
Two standard hands and a pre flop bluff that turned out to be a full house and felted a guy. Then this:
Eff. Stacks $400.
Hero,forty something,Rec player, three behind the button w/AA (can't remember suits,but not relevant anyway).
Villan,forty something,Rec player,played a lot of hands in the three orbits I had been here,like 80%,had sizing tell also,utg.
Villan leads for $18,folds to me.
He was opening for $7-$12 every other hand $7 bets were small pairs and suited ace type hands. $12 bets were AK and up,so when he bet $18 I thought to myself "this is a JJ type bet" maybe mid pair-AJ,but I don't give him many A's as I have two.
Hero raise to $48.
Villan calls.
Flop is 5J5.
Villan shoves.
Hero?

Snap call. You're ahead of the majority of his range. Likely JJ-KK, given your reads.

My first thought is who open shoves with jacks full? Wouldnt almost everyone check automatically?

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Snap call, this is anything from a scared 88-TT hand, to a confident AJ/QQ/KK hand. If he flips over a 5, oh well

Woww.. He donk shoved 3.5 times the pot?.. Just show your AA and look for his reactions... Unless he is a super donk.. He is crushing you and has JJ. He should know you have a very very good hand and is not going anywhere on this dry flop and would start asking why should one shove with JJ here???.. Weird..I will fold if his face Dont change after seeing my pocket aces.. He deserves it in either case.. Sickoo

Ahhh....why are we snapping for 200bb? For 100bb, absolutely, snap, crackle, and pop, but for 200bb, let's at least think for a second.

You got sizing tells on only three orbits? He showed, or had to show, all of those hands for you to get sizing tells in three orbits? Just seems unlikely.

Well at least the decision is easy. Call or fold. Why would Villain shove here if he holds JJ? Would he shove here if he had, let's say, A5? Very much a polarized shove here.

I'm not sure I call off 200bb here only playing three orbits with this guy. I really don't think you got any reliable PF raising tells.

Fold.

Edit: Maybe this guy has JJ and knows you have AA or KK and knows you can't fold. Or maybe strong means weak. Or maybe he knows you can't call 200bb with an overpair.

This can mean a lot of things.

Maybe he has JJ and doesn't know what to do with the stone cold nuts so he just shoves. Or maybe he feels the exact same way about QQ and overplays it. Some players could even have AJs and play it like this for whatever reason (our preflop read rules this out for this player).

When in a really weird calling spot like this -- where I really want to call both for value and "curiosity," I like to consider where I am I my range. QQ/AK would be the bottom, KK/AA in the middle, and JJ at the top. I'm probably calling this time since we have AA; if we had QQ/AK it would be a fold; KK is a toss up for me, but a fold most of the time.

Basically, I just don't like to "back off" with AA quite yet. I've caught quite a few players overplaying their hands in these spots. It works a lot better when we have AA here rather than QQ. So yeah, I'm calling this, expecting to see JJ-AA. And then making a note depending on what it is.

Actually, I think the most important aspect of this is the Hero is a rec player. No need to call off 200bb for someone who is just playing for recreation.

I really can't believe everyone in this thread (except bpep) would really call off 200bb with this hand.

Rec players are not "...making a note depending on what it is" They are noting, "I can't believe I just lost $400 with AA".

I guess I am the exception, but calling off 200bb in this spot is insane. I fold, pat the table, and say "nice bet".

Villain never has 5x based on preflop reads. Only thing to worry about is JJ. Unless you've seen him over-bet shove nutted, snapping all day. Question you gotta ask yourself is why would he just shove JJ?

This---you'd check to the pre-flop raiser... If he's good enough to play jacks full like this, I'm probably bad enough to stack off with AA. As played, QQ, KK and maybe AK seem much more likely.

Thank for all the responses guys.
So my first thought was to snap call,but I'm trying hard to become a better player and think through all my decisions before I make them.
So then I'm thinking"why shove here?" And no he didn't show every hand and yes three orbits is a short time to pick up a sizing tell,but what I did see told me his preflop bet and THEN call of my raise was 1010-AA,maybe AK/AQ. I think he shoves preflop with KK/AA,I have AA so I'm not giving him AA.
So when he shoves after a flop of 5J5,I think this guys range is pretty well set in stone. QQ/JJ.
So I think for a bit,like a minute or two. I'm staring him down,he looks up at me and I say "pocket JJ?" And the look on his face was like he just got caught with his hand in the cookie jar.
So I ask again,and he says with a grin on his face "call and find out."
I'm curious as to what hands,given the action and my brief read on villan the "snap callers are giving this guy credit for?
I DO have AA,but I also ONLY have $48 invested here(these were my last two thoughts before I made my decision)

SPR is 3 and we have an overpair. Calling and not feeling bad at all about it. He can have AJ, KK, QQ. If he has 5x or JJ, I'm feeling unlucky, not that I played it bad.

Fwiw, I'd fold QQ and KK would be a tough decision.

If you do a PokerStove simulation of AA vs. JJ+, AKs, AKo on the J55 board, the AA has 89% equity. (He could also have some other odd hands, giving the AA even more equity.) This would be a no-brainer call if we don't consider other factors.
Do we really have a read on a player who overshoves so big? Is the villain really reading Hero as having AA? Most reasonable Heroes would still not bet so large here since most Heroes would fold.
So the question becomes, "Is the villain so bad that he would overshove with the nuts?", or "Is he so bad that he would shove to protect a hand like QQ, KK, or AJ?" I have seen both types of players in low-stakes live games, but I think the second type of player is much more common.
Unless you have a read that convinces you that the villain is the first type, you should probably call.
Steve

Easy fold given that table talk and that read...it is a weird line to take and a great illustration of how face up folks are at low stakes. If he'd check the flop you'd likely bet both the flop and the turn drawing with ~8% equity.

Good post and a great reminder of how solid bet sizing tells are OP---I need to be better about reading them.

Lol fold

If this is his range, this is a snap call.

Thanks so much everyone for taking the time to read and respond.
So it looks like it's about 2:1 that I should have called.
I folded. He didn't show,but for what it's worth his hands were shaking as he scooped his $93 pot.
I told myself I was gonna wait for a better spot with this guy and try to stack him off.
I played with him for another few hours but never got the chance.
I STILL think he had JJ,but over the past few days the possibility of QQ has entered my mind.
If either of us had been short stacked OR if I thought this guy had any "game" AT ALL I would have called.
But he was so face up,and I keep thinking his pre flop bet was just screaming "I have JJ,and don't want any callers!" His call of my pre flop raise all but confirmed it in my mind.
Anyway,thanks again everyone.

This usually means they had/have a monster.

At the end of your session, how would you like to tag him?. Did you see him overbetting any river for value or tried for thin value betting?.. like kept barreling on a high card on turn even though he had a pair bigger than the top pair on flop but lesser than turn card etc?..... In any case, i dont think its worth to play pot against him if he is good enough to push nuts on a very dry flop.

This hand analysis exemplifies why it's a mistake to put villains on a single hand and rely mainly on physical tells. A reasonable range is JJ-AA and hero has 83% equity. This is an obvious call.

Based on your descriptions, some of your analysis of his physical/bet tells don't all point to JJ enough to override our estimated range. Villain may bet bigger with all JJ+ pairs because he doesn't want to get them cracked. His hands may have been shaking because he thought KK on a J-5-5 is basically the nuts. Maybe he freaks out every time he shoves. Most players freeze and check when they flop a boat, not shove.

Physical tells can be very deceiving and aren't accurate in a vacuum. We need to primarily rely on our equity vs. our villains estimated ranges, bet sizing, and other deciphered exploits to ensure we're winning players. I think it's more likely than not that hero folded the winning hand.

My hands shake when I'm pulling in a pot after a big bluff or a monster.

BTW, I call this all day. You've been at the table for only three orbits and this guy is playing 80% of hands. If he has JJ, it's a major cooler. Could be KK, QQ, maybe AJ or AK. Against a tight player who hasn't played many hands and is straightforward, this might be a fold.

If his range is QQ and JJ u have to call. Simple math

Worst fold ever.

Agreed worst fold ever.