Hand from last night that I thought about and was generally unsure if I took a good line.

Villain: 40 year old white guy. I haven't played with him before, but he is pretty active. His standard raise is to $15 and I have seen him do this with 33, 10jo, and KQs. I don't know if he would raise bigger pairs to a different amount.

Hero: Has been playing pretty LAG and taking down lots of pots post flop without any resistance. I have bet on a few occasions on the turn when other players have c-bet then checked to me. Has not been in any hand with Villain for the most part except strange limped pots.

Preflop: UTG limps. Villain raises to $15, and folds to Hero on the button with 10 10. I elect just to call since we are super deep (500+). Limper calls.

Flop: 8 2 3 rainbow. Limper just straight up mucks to answer his phone. Villain bets $15. At this point I have no idea where he is at. All his other bets have been at least 1/2 pot and more like 2/3 pot. I literally have no idea if I am good and consider raising here to get over cards out of the hand. However, I have seen him raise 33 preflop to 15 so I hesitated because he might be inducing a raise (I know most people don't think like that). I elect just to call and see what he does on the turn.

Turn: J completing rainbow. Villain checks. Hero thinks for a little bit and bets $43. Villain thinks for 10 seconds and calls.

River: another J. Villain checks. Hero?

Thoughts on all streets appreciated. Mostly interested in river. Are you guys betting for value and if so how much?

I am betting here often but not very big...maybe same bet it or something. He doesn't have an overpair...trying to get value out of 55-77, 99...maybe AK

If you don't have good reads on this guy, I think it can be OK to check here. You probably have the best hand, but you also need to get called by worse in order for a value bet to work.

If you do bet, I'd bet small. Make it not too painful for 8x or 77 to look you up. Also, if he is planning a check-raise, and you bet small, the check-raise might be small enough that you can look him up.

If you check back, make him show his hand first.

Make a small value bet otr and also raise flop for value from 8x, 99. His flop sizing is small so its rarely going to be a big hand. 1/2 plays so passively that almost no one is going to bet small with a big hand to induce a raise from worse.

I probably bet like $60. You'll probably get the tank call from A8 and 99 and will only be raised by better. Checking is fine though if ya wanna play it safe.

I think your line looks pretty good man.

Villain has a hand like 99, the other TT, and maybe 55-77 like Slim said, a ton.

It's not impossible that he has a better pocket pair like QQ and is playing it weakly.

Still, I like your line. Flop call is perfect imo - raising gets worse to fold and better to call (not as a 100% thing, but in general, a raise skews his range such that you're not gonna be playing and getting value from the most optimal density hands you want to play against, and I think it costs us EV). You need to keep his range wider here and you do not want to build a huge pot.

We're 250BB deep, and as this pot gets larger and larger, you reach an inflection point where you're gonna lose more than you win.

Turn bet/fold for value looks good to me.

The turn J is a good card for you imo because he basically can't have JJ (first, it's just ****ing hard to have a set, and second, he won't check the turn with JJ).

I'd definitely bet the river for value. It's not a fat value bet, but I don't think it's incredibly thin or anything.

River pot is what ~150?

I like Slim's same bet idea - I think $50 is a good size.

I mean, if you take your line up to the river.. and bet $50 on the river.. and he calls with a hand like 99.. I'd say: Well played, you won the max against most villains.

in this situation I don't mind checking it back at all here.

With the board pairing jacks on the river, he might be putting you on a jack, and he could easily have QQ+ here.

If you are going to go for value into 160, in this situation, I would bet 40ish.

Of course, QQ+ is going to snap call you every time, but at least with the small bet on the river, you won't be value owning yourself too bad. But I would check it back.

Wily if hero raises to $35 otf, 8x and 99 aren't folding if he's a fish.

He shouldnt have JJ+ here anyway too often so not worried about too mamy better hands calling

Grunch:

Pre: if he's not a nit I will often 3 bet and play in position. If he 4 beta it's a pretty easy fold.
Flop: I'm tempted to raise also but I think callin is best since raising is really only good for getting him to fold his equity in this spot.
Turn: bettin for sure. Not thrilled with a call.
River: very clear bet/fold.

raising flop against most villains is no good IMO without some read that he is a total station...probably end up getting no value later in the hand.

I understand that a scare card comes prob at least 50% OTT (too lazy to count cards atm) but without knowing he is a total station you fold out worse, or at least limit future streets of action, and get a lot of action obv from hands that beat us.

Yeah Duke, I agree that a smallish flop raise is definitely a viable line.

There are a lot of turn cards that can kill action or improve villain.

I guess on the flop, I'm thinking that the range of worse hands that can call a raise is pretty narrow - 8x and 99 and hands like it are a subset of his range. Like OP said, we don't necessarily "know where we are" yet - just that he bet small on the flop. I do think a flop raise is +EV, but I'm not sure it's the most +EV line possible.

I think we can leverage position pretty well after the flop. Like, in this exact situation, when he checks the turn, I think he's then asking for us to value-school him, and I feel we can use position (informational advantage in particular) to bet for so much more value at this point in the hand.

That said, now that I look at it more, he's betting like $15 into $45 on the flop, right? That's really small.

So yeah, I think raising the flop is definitely a good line, though I can't say for if it's more profitable than calling. Obviously, villain-specific factors would matter. Either way, I do feel I can use position to learn so much more on the turn and make the most profitable decisions after the flop on the turn and river.

As played, we won a larger turn bet, and I think we can win more on the river very often, but if we had raised the flop and villain did call, I think he'll be very hard pressed to pay us off more on future streets. Calling the flop kept both our ranges wider.

Of course, that's partially a results-oriented view of this exact hand. The outcome definitely depends a ton on run out and scare cards. This just happened to be a very innocuous run-out, but on 823AK, we may not be able to win even one more bet after calling the flop.

So it's hard to say for sure, though I do think call flop, bet basically all turns with a meatier bet size, and consider a small river value bet depending on run-out works well and could be more +EV than a line than one that involves trtying to pick up another bet on the flop, when the pot is the smallest and our hand range would look much stronger.

Also I think his very small flop bet is indicative of a hand range that has lots of hands that are often weaker than 99, 8x.

I mean, why bet out so weakly with top pair or an over pair?

I think it skews it a bit more to the 55-77 region, which makes me want to call the flop even more. Though air and overs are very possible, and if we just call, we could lose to those later.

Of course, let's see hero get c/r all-in on the river now with the worst played nut hand ever...

No rec player at live 200NL is ballsy enough to c/r for value OTR in this spot (in fear of you checking behind). I've literally never seen it. I'm value betting this all day. I agree with a small bet, too. His range is very elastic, so we need to give him a good price.

I flat pf also almost all of the time. This V as described is c-betting a high % anyway but against other guys we're kind of forcing them to c-bet airballed flops.

Also like the flat otf. How many worse hands are b/c'ing otf oop? It seems passive up to this point but that's not the case. We're 250BB deep, have 1 pair, have position and we're using it. Sometimes winning the max. in a hand means flatting the whole way.

Also betting ott. If we got c/r'd I'd be confused. It'd make us fold or flat. He has it all or nothing and if he had nothing we need to keep him oop otr and make him bluff.

I think it's a great river card for us. It makes V think we're not likely to have a J. 99 and A8 aren't folding, maybe even 77. Not a huge c/c range we're giving V but most hands that beat us make no sense (QQ+). KJ isn't out of the question but I can't think of more hands that have us beat here.

I'd bet 75 and expect to get looked up by 99 and A8.

Thanks for the responses everyone. I'm glad to see most don't mind the line I took in the hand. I actually ended up betting 55 on the river. Consensus seems to be that as played I should have bet somewhere in the 50-75 range. Villain called and actually showed first and had 44.

I really thought most would have bet more, but it was good to see that most had the same read that I did and would have bet smallish for value.

Forgot to ask, why didn't you add "Homie" to the end of your username. I hope it's only because that username was taken already.

So V is in MP(?) - raises to $15.
Hero on button calls.
Blinds fold.
UTG smooth calls.

Pot $47
Flop: 8 3 2
UTG folds.
V bets $15
Button calls.

Pot $77
Turn: J
V checks.
Hero bets $43
V thinks for 10 secs and calls.

Pot $163
River: J
V checks.
Hero ?

Agree with most, I'd 3-bet on button with TT to iso - and maybe even take down the pot. I just call there only if there were more limper/callers (set mining).

V's flop bet and turn check boggles my mind. You haven't indicated how he bets - other than his pre-flop raising - so it's hard to tell what he's representing. So I'm assuming he's passive post-flop.

Many mid-aged rec players would make a small bet on the flop with a monster to get action. They don't know how to size their bets - so they often bet the same or make it a tiny bit bigger. They rarely take the pot size into account when betting.

So he bets flop but shuts down on turn... my gut tells me he's got a pp here for sure. I think he check/folds with AK, AQ or AJ.

The freeze/check on the turn can only mean he hit a set of Js on the turn. He contemplated raising you, but decides to save it for the river.

As others have said, he could easily have a ton of pp under TT here or even TT. So I think a 75-85 river valu-bet is appropriate.

But I'd insta-muck if he raises it a nickel. He's got a boat - or more likely quads.

LOL I remember trying to when I created it. I don't remember if it was taken or if it was too long. Good to see someone else knows what its in reference to.

I agree with this line but given you are very uneasy I have another idea for a line (May sacrifice some EV but I think it will be a more comfortable play for you until we get more acquainted with said V):

Preflop is same (flat):

Flop we could pop it to $40; with intent of checking back almost all turns.
Then call or check behind most rivers.

Cons with this line:
- If V leads river then his range is much stronger (than what we assume it is otr with the line you chose to take)
- We have to fold to almost any river bet.
- We lose value from weaker hands.

Pros with this line:
- I feel the pot will be slightly smaller than if V bets all three streets.
- His range is a lot narrower and we should have a better idea where we are at.
- I feel, given the second indent, we will be more comfortable in the hand (given the way you described how you were so uneasy about it).

Sick read here.

As played though I think a value bet is in need...were almost zero worried about a c/r and if you don't get value owned from time to time your not value betting enough (I feel this value bet is a pretty good spot, not too thin and I would be fairly surprised to see us behind when called).

Exactly. +1

I don't like the flat preflop. Much prefer a reraise since you know he cbets usually half/two-thirds pot and so if he calls, you will get more value on flops like the one you were dealt and also on your sets. It will also most likely get rid of the limper.

I like just calling on the flop.

I like your bet on the turn.

I'd probably bet approx 40% of the pot on the river for value.

If we 3-bet pf, we're the ones who will do the flop c-betting, not V. V isn't r/c'ing pre then leading out otf 60%+ of the time with a 2/3 PSB. This is why we like position, we keep V oop and never knowing where he is in the hand. By flatting pre we near guarantee his c-bet. Taking the lead here is disadvantageous imo. It gives V an easy out in that he can c/f airballed flops.

Also, what range do you give V for r/c'ing pre. Absolutely every hand that beats us, how many that don't? And how many of those hands that don't beat us (AK AQ, AJ, 99, etc) will we be getting huge value from otf? V has AK, he either hits his pair and is in position to win the pot or he doesn't and he c/f's. His range for r/c'ing pre is hugely weighted towards hands that will only continue past the flop if we're beat.