$1/2 NL (8 handed)
Villain: mid-20's white guy. Lip and brow piercings, jeans/T-shirt. Loose preflop. No solid reads post, but has done nothing unusual. Nothing to indicate exceptional playing time (chip shuffles, headphones, general air of boredom, etc.)

Hero: MAWG, likely has reasonably competent TAG image, but has been running bad: winning the small pots and getting coolered on the big ones. Has also pulled some, um, creative moves that haven't worked out so may be perceived as less than "reasonably" competent.

CO V1 ($400)
Button Hero ($300)

Hero is dealt AT

2 limps, V limps, Hero raises to $18, all fold to V, V calls $18

Flop ($35) 7,7,9
V checks, Hero bets $25, V calls
2/3 pot is my typical cbet.

Turn ($84) 8

V bets $40, Hero?

I seek the collective wisdom: folding seems pretty clearly out and calling seems superior to raising, but the presence of the one card straight (which isn't going to get paid off) and the possibility of folding out some hands I'm behind make me wonder. Your thoughts?

Assuming calling is correct as played, when would it make sense to pop this?

Just a call IMO.

We have A high atm, and 17 outs, some of which could be dead. So I would say we have roughly 30% equity going to the river. If all outs are live, we have ~ correct pot odds to call.

The board is also paired though. Are you willing to get it in on the river if that's how the action goes when you make your hand?

If the board wasn't paired, I would consider a raise but I would still prefer a call. Raise with this draw would be best suited if we were on the flop and the board was not paired.

my gut says raise to $100-$125 with so many outs. It sounds like you don't think you're getting paid if flush or strght comes home on river. If that's the case, I think this is the best spot to get some more money in the pot.

You don't have a lot of reads on V and his action so far is limp/call pre flop, check/call flop, fire turn. As played, you are behind and if you raise, he might shove and blow you off the hand OR flat bc he has you drawing dead.
Folding is not the worst play here. Given the board texture, if you hit your straight or flush, you'll be making a crying call or betting thin value OTR (possibly bet/fold river if he c/r). It may be MUBSY to think this, but 99, 88, 87s are all very much in Vs range and have you drawing dead. I'd discount JT bc he's unlikely to call for a gut shot on a pair board but if you've been making weird plays, he might have that, too. I think you're way behind his range and a raise here is a mistake. And if you call and hit, you can't really get aggressive on the river.

I hate raising turn as you have almost no fold equity on this textured board. Call the turn and play poker.

You're gonna feel pretty bad when he 3bets. Just call.

Chasing Straights and Flushs on closely coordinated paired boards is one of those moves that is likely to result in a big pot "cooler".

@Sebastes, touche

Thanks for comments, all.

As indicated in OP, I hadn't seriously considered folding, but it's an interesting point. Perhaps that's actually the best of the options? The direct odds are there, and it does seem slightly mubsy, but I'll give up more when behind than I'll make when ahead OTR, which might move this into fold territory. Anyone else finding a fold here?

Don't hate a fold but there are so many hands that may pay off if we hit. All depends on how good a read we have on villain. Will they only lead the river with the nuts or will they play chicken with us?

Yeah not to mention that the villain's check-call, lead line doesn't bode well for you at all.

Not really, as I don't believe most V's are going to 3 bet with a boat here. Set, yes. 2 pair, probably. If hero doesn't think V is paying off a made strght or flush, then I think this is the best spot. If you're just calling, and catch, you're not getting called on river according to OP's description. If you don't hit, you can't bluff without showing some strength on the turn. I think a raise here keeps ALL possible options open on the river. (I actually favor a smaller raise, like $100 over a bigger raise like $125)


@case I'm almost never folding here. As I am terribad at figuring EV, I would like to see which is + or - given perceived V range.

I assume he's limp calling with approximately: 22+, AXs, 54s+, 97s+, AK, AQ, AJs, KQ. Some of these have to be discounted (particularly QQ+) and there are some fudge factor hands.
After the flop bet and call, we're probably down to:
77, 99, 97s
A7s,
A9s,TT+ (many of which are discounted because they should have raised somewhere pre)
SCs and S1Gs in spade (some of which might have folded flop in the face of a paired board).

Discounting QQ+ to one combo each:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,232 games 0.000 secs 246,400 games/sec

Board: 7s 9s 7h 8d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.416% 33.69% 00.73% 415 9.00 { AsTs }
Hand 1: 65.584% 64.85% 00.73% 799 9.00 { AcAd, KcKd, QcQd, JJ-99, 77, A9s, A7s, KsQs, KsJs, QsJs, 97s, 6s5s, 5s4s }

That leaves out all the fudge factor hands, but also leaves in all the spade draws.

Never raising on this board texture.
Not folding getting 3:1.

If we miss the river, easy check fold.
If we hit any of our outs on the river, call a reaonable sized bet (up to ~1/2 pot).
If we hit any of our outs and he checks, bet/fold for about half pot.

Do you really think V is going to limp call 77-99 from the CO? Is he that passive? If V was a nit, I could see that. (guess OP doesn't know for sure)
I guess I just wouldn't put V on boat here. I think set, strght (maybe 56ss) or 2 pair with spade draw. The more I think about it, it looks like a 2 pair type of hand with maybe a flush draw. If V was even a little competent, he should be either raising your c-bet or betting turn much larger with a set or straight. ah, hell, I prob. just sound stupid. I don't even know if I would have the balls to raise the turn,(probably not) I just went with my initial gut reaction.

I think l/c with 77 or 99 is a possibility. Certainly not guaranteed, but not everyone is going to be comfortable raising a couple limpers with them, while almost no one will consider folding them pre. Probably worth discounting them a bit.