New table, 20 minutes in, effective stacks $300. Villain looks familiar, I'm pretty sure he's a reg but I don't remember ever playing with him.

OTTH:

V - MAG limps UTG, 2 more limps and Hero (also MAG) raises to $15 in the CO with AQ. Folds back to V who calls, both limpers call.

Flop ($60) - A Q J
Checks to Hero who bets $45. It's only been 20 mins but none of the Vs have done anything to seem tricky thus far. I suspect that any hand that beats me will let us know right away at this table. V pauses only momentarily and seems to make an "I'm not convinced" call. Limp / callers fold.

Turn ($150) - A Q J 8
Checks to Hero who bets $70 reasonably sure we have the best hand. Surprisingly V min raises to $140 putting Hero in the tank. I can't imagine V would limp call JJ UTG. AA and QQ, should have been limp raises pre. 88 shouldn't make it to the turn. I'm ranging V on KT, A8, AT+, QJ, maybe a sticky T9. Flop action body language give me a gut feel that it's not KT but I'm not a pro hand reader either. If we call here we certainly aren't folding any rivers. Is there any case for raising? Do we have to lay this down?

3 limps to us, I make it $25+ pre.

AP, I jam turn. Short stacks make this decision easier.

I think you're playing for stacks at this point whether you raise or not. My first instinct was that his bet screams T9, and I still expect to see that pretty frequently. I think V can't have a set here and I think KT is unlikely. I feel that I have to assume an unknown V could do this with AT, AJ, QJ and A8... so I think we have to shove. Hope it worked out for you.

Raise more pre. As played fold. Momentary I’m not convinced emoting is still emoting and a turn raise is still a turn raise.

Agree, pre flop open could have been larger.

Open jam turn or 3 bet jam? I feel like open jamming 240 into 150 is only getting called by better...

Yeah, only $100 behind if we call. A raise is almost the same thing as a call IMO. Cant imagine a scenario where either of us could fold OTR.

Points taken.

Pot is $430 if you call with only 100ish behind so it's pretty inconsequential at this point.

Be happy you're not deep here...it'd be sick if you were 1k effective and he made it 200 OTT. Then we have a real post here hahaa

People don't 3-bet light in these games, I guess.

Lol, most people don't even 3-bet AK in these games, let alone 3-bet light. Hell, a lot of them don't even 2-bet AK. If I ever show down AQ in a 3-bet pot people comment and look at me funny and if I show down J9s or something they lose their minds.

I never realized how soft 1|2 really is compared to 2|5 until recently. At 2|5, although there is still not a lot of light 3-betting, people have a fuller value range.

This is a fold and it’s not that close. It sucks but bad players love that min Xraise with nut holdings. He has T9 here a very high percentage of the time. I hope you called though I’d like to see if I’m right.

Grunch

Flop smaller

Turn id muck but ehh

Pre probably going larger, taking up dead money is fine and we do not want be end up 4-7 way to a flop here

+1

Ok I'll post results.

What's your flop sizing and why? I did figure out pre sizing later in the session. Had to get re-acclimated to 1/2.

Results per request. Thanks all for input:

I guess I was wrong nice call. We can have AA,QQ,JJ KTs and T9s here so this is the 18th best combo? If we equilab Villains range to KTo,T9o,A8o,AJ. Then there’s 16 combos each of KTo/T9o and only 6 combos of AJo and 6 combos of A8o.

Add to the fact that Villain will play his straights like this more often then his 2 pair and I still think it’s a fold. You just ran into the bottom of his range.

Thanks, I didn't think this was a fist pump call. I went into the tank for a reason. I think it's close enough to fold fairly often. I also didn't think KT would x/c flop, x/r turn that often. If I check behind he's losing a ton of value. Similarly, T9o shouldn't be calling 15 pre from UTG with much frequency. Even KTo is a loose call IMO. So I didn't count all combos equally. All the suited combos pre, but the KT line still looked fishy. Mixed with the live reads I went with it this time and happened to be right.

A8o as a preflop call is wayy worse than KTo/T9o though. Either way nice hand.

Nice hand, nice hh. Villain’s play seems really bizarre given results.

It's a multiway pot. You basically can't size to to give the wrong price to draws, because once one villain calls the next one is getting good pot odds. So the motivation to size up is gone, and we are better off sizing down. Moreover, while we have range advantage over any individual player, this is diluted by the fact that there are so many of them.

On the other hand the board is coordinated high cards. Everybody's ranges are weighted towards bigger cards, and so this board is more likely to connect with at least some other players' hands. We have the opportunity to extract more money from them when we continue.

I think half a pot is a good size here.