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Bottom two on wet board, need a plan Bottom two on wet board, need a plan

05-29-2014 , 10:49 PM
1/2NL 8-handed.

V1($250): 30s Indian guy. Playing fairly ABC, maybe a tad loose, but otherwise not too fishy. Hasn't done anything remarkable.

V2($175): Late 40s/Early 50s Indian. The mark at the table. VPIP probably around 60-70% and doesn't seem to care if the pot is raised. Can take some weird lines postflop. Maybe a bit more aggressive than your typical fish, but otherwise a nice whale.

Hero(covers): Early 30s white guy. I maybe look a bit laggy due to having a nice run of cards. The table has also been playing 6/7 handed a bit so I get involved a lot more.

Pre:
V2 open limps in EP. Folds to hero on BTN who raises to $11 with 89o. This is probably the bottom of my range for making this play, but I feel having the button vs. V2 who is playing all sorts of garbage is a good play. I expect the blinds to fold and me to be able to win with a cbet greater than 50% of the time. V1 calls in the SB, BB folds, V2 calls.

Flop(~$30): 89Q
V1 donks out $15. V2 calls. What's my plan for this hand? Raise/fold? Raise/stack off? Call down? If I raise and get called what turns am I shoving? V1's range for donking is probably everything that beats me minus maybe QQ since no 3-bet, and tons of other draw hands that have good equity against my meager bottom 2.
Bottom two on wet board, need a plan Quote
05-30-2014 , 12:17 AM
You have bottom two on a soakin' wet board. Yes, you got in the last raise, but you also have position here. Call the donk 1/2 pot, reassess on the turn. Raising accomplishes nothing since I don't see anyone going anywhere here, and if you pop it, and another spade drops off, and/or hits inside the gap, you're gonna wish you hadn't dunnit.

Your hand has SDV, but it could also be crushed badly here.
Bottom two on wet board, need a plan Quote
05-30-2014 , 12:31 AM
If you're ahead, you have RIO and need to dodge the world. I probably call and if I don't boat ott I fold. Non preflop raisers donking wet flops into multiple opponents, at 1/2 do not level yourslef, it's not a pair+draw or pretty much anything bottom two is beating. Maybe A9ss or AQ.
Bottom two on wet board, need a plan Quote
05-30-2014 , 12:47 AM
I think you need to raise and stack off.

Raise to $80, never fold.

It's high variance, but you gotta think about ranges.

Yes, there are JT and a few sets and better two pair, though you block those.

But there are also hands like AQ, AT, KQ, KJ, KT, QJ, QT, Qx, JJ, J9, Jx, TT, T9, Tx, 87, 98, T7, J7, 76, .

Their ranges are super rich with pairs, straight draws, gut shots, pairs + draws, flush draws, combo draws.

V2 is fishy, and he can stack off so wide on a board like this one.

V1 definitely doesn't need the nuts to donk and put in more chips. You don't love it when you raise and he ships, but he can definitely get it in with worse.

And finally, the times you do get it in bad, you generally have 4 outs twice. Those aren't bad odds. Good luck.
Bottom two on wet board, need a plan Quote
05-30-2014 , 01:01 AM
To answer some more questions.

If you get called when you raise flop, you obviously do not like T, J or spade turns. Q also not ideal.

Generally, if those turns check to you, I'd check back and assess river (often folding to a bet, or, possibly, if checked to again on certain run outs, going for very thin value yourself).

Generally, if any other turn checks to you, I'd insta ship.

I'm saying generally because it depends on action, etc.
Bottom two on wet board, need a plan Quote
05-30-2014 , 01:56 AM
I don't like a raise on the flop. I'd only call here because you'll end up folding too many turns. I'd bet the turn if a safe card comes and you're checked to, or obviously if you fill up. If the turn brings a bad card and V makes any reasonably sized bet, I'd dump it.
Bottom two on wet board, need a plan Quote
05-30-2014 , 02:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Willyoman
I think you need to raise and stack off.

Raise to $80, never fold.

But there are also hands like AQ, AT, KQ, KJ, KT, QJ, QT, Qx, JJ, J9, Jx, TT, T9, Tx, 87, 98, T7, J7, 76, .

Their ranges are super rich with pairs, straight draws, gut shots, pairs + draws, flush draws, combo draws.

V1 definitely doesn't need the nuts to donk and put in more chips. You don't love it when you raise and he ships, but he can definitely get it in with worse.
V1 is flatting pf and then donking 3-way otf with these hands very close to 0% of the time. Or the description is way off.
Bottom two on wet board, need a plan Quote
05-30-2014 , 03:09 AM
Call flop. Reassess turn.
Bottom two on wet board, need a plan Quote
05-30-2014 , 07:13 AM
So far we've got 3 votes for call/reassess and one for raise/stack off based on the assumption V1 can donk a wide range. My gut was with eldiesel that he doesn't donk the bolded hands enough to justify getting it in here. Even if he does I'm basically flipping with those hands, on top of the range I'm crushed by. Maybe if he calls a big raise with KQ/AQ too do I have a shot. My read wasn't incredibly strong, and I agree this hand has showdown value but some nasty RIO. Anyways, I decide to just flat and reassess.

Turn($75)289Q
V1 bets $20, V2 folds, hero?
Bottom two on wet board, need a plan Quote
05-30-2014 , 01:11 PM
He's only 3-betting better but never folding any pair+draw, also never turning anything into a bluff. I'd r/f.
Bottom two on wet board, need a plan Quote
05-30-2014 , 01:49 PM
Turn here almost has to be a draw given your villain description. Weak hands are not donking twice and strong hands are betting more on such a wet board.

The problem is that any raise is going to commit you to pot. $60 isn't enough because villain with just a flush draw would be getting close to odds, combo draws and pair+draw hands would be priced in. You need to go $80 so villain is getting less then 3-1. However when you do that, if villain does comes over the top you will be getting better then 2-1. That is too good to fold when villain obviously can be on a big draw.

I still think I'm going raise here just because the turn donk is almost always a draw or a stupidly played QX on this sort of board. A villain with a set or straight would have to be worried V2 or you had the flush and/or straight draw and bet more.
Bottom two on wet board, need a plan Quote
05-30-2014 , 02:00 PM
I would have called flop as you did. On turn I would love to know how this V has bet other hands. This could be a "please raise me" bet or a "please don't raise me and let me get to the river cheap" bet. I really hate two pair, especially bottom two. If I didn't know how V bet other hands, I'd probably just call and re-evaluate river. I really hate the idea of raising and being re-raised.
Bottom two on wet board, need a plan Quote
05-30-2014 , 02:02 PM
R/f is actually not great. To price out a combo draw we need to bet near $90, and fold to a raise or fold to a river donk on any scare card. I don't think it commits us, if we bet $90 and V1 3-bet shoves for $225 total we can fold not getting the price to boat. I just don't like it.

Maybe just flat and take the low variance route.
Bottom two on wet board, need a plan Quote
05-30-2014 , 02:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by eldiesel
R/f is actually not great. To price out a combo draw we need to bet near $90, and fold to a raise or fold to a river donk on any scare card. I don't think it commits us, if we bet $90 and V1 3-bet shoves for $225 total we can fold not getting the price to boat. I just don't like it.

Maybe just flat and take the low variance route.
This.
Bottom two on wet board, need a plan Quote
05-30-2014 , 02:35 PM
Interesting so far. For those saying r/f what is your plan if called? Check back scare cards bet safe cards? What about if he donks river?
Bottom two on wet board, need a plan Quote
05-31-2014 , 12:16 PM
I am still a bit curious about a raise/fold line. Not sure if that's good ott or not, but it's worth considering. Anyways, river is a bit interesting here too. I took the low variance route and called the $20.

River($115)89Q22:diamond :
V1 bets $16, hero laughs a bit inside and?
Bottom two on wet board, need a plan Quote
05-31-2014 , 01:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Willyoman
I think you need to raise and stack off.

Raise to $80, never fold.

It's high variance, but you gotta think about ranges.

Yes, there are JT and a few sets and better two pair, though you block those.

But there are also hands like AQ, AT, KQ, KJ, KT, QJ, QT, Qx, JJ, J9, Jx, TT, T9, Tx, 87, 98, T7, J7, 76, .

Their ranges are super rich with pairs, straight draws, gut shots, pairs + draws, flush draws, combo draws.

V2 is fishy, and he can stack off so wide on a board like this one.

V1 definitely doesn't need the nuts to donk and put in more chips. You don't love it when you raise and he ships, but he can definitely get it in with worse.

And finally, the times you do get it in bad, you generally have 4 outs twice. Those aren't bad odds. Good luck.
+1
I also like the follow post to this. Villain is on a draw.

Last edited by Wetworks; 05-31-2014 at 01:11 PM. Reason: Typo
Bottom two on wet board, need a plan Quote
05-31-2014 , 01:17 PM
I laughed when I read that river card too. This is a rare time I'd calculate the "are we good [ 16 / (115 + 16*2) ] % of the time" thing. It's ~10.5%, the thing is Hero doesn't even beat A9ss. Hero does beat KJss (1 combo) and does chop 89o (4 combos). I usually don't call hoping to chop at best but it's $16 to win $57.

It does look like a blocking bet. Did you consider raising to $75? Not that I'd necessarily do it here, just wondering if you thought about doing it in game.

I probably raise a small portion of the time, fold a small portion of the time, and call most of the time.
Bottom two on wet board, need a plan Quote
05-31-2014 , 06:42 PM
River is terrible, but I have to call just to see his hand.
Bottom two on wet board, need a plan Quote
05-31-2014 , 11:00 PM
Your raise PF is a little spew. If it was suited I would be okay with it but since it's not even in my range I'm going to semi-puke over it.

You really want to bloat the pot right now and put in a strong raise. You're going to be barreling any turn that doesn't complete a straight.

Edit: Just read the turn and river.

As played raise the turn. That's such a safe card for you. Put in a $90 raise.

River is a lol/call. Plenty of missed straights and flushes to make calling this thin v-bet profitable.
Bottom two on wet board, need a plan Quote
06-02-2014 , 04:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Koss
So far we've got 3 votes for call/reassess and one for raise/stack off based on the assumption V1 can donk a wide range. My gut was with eldiesel that he doesn't donk the bolded hands enough to justify getting it in here. Even if he does I'm basically flipping with those hands, on top of the range I'm crushed by. Maybe if he calls a big raise with KQ/AQ too do I have a shot. My read wasn't incredibly strong, and I agree this hand has showdown value but some nasty RIO. Anyways, I decide to just flat and reassess.

Turn($75)289Q
V1 bets $20, V2 folds, hero?
There is no set answer here. It would depend on how I read this vill, what I knew of his history. Does he lead small like that to block? Does he induce? Am I not really sure about either possibility? You could give serious consideration to r/f. Get 80 -- 90 in there. If he comes over the top, fold.

The obvious low variance play is to call and reassess OTR. As played, too bad about getting your two pair counterfeited. Just pay off his ridiculous tiny river bet. If you win or lose, you know more about how your vill plays.
Bottom two on wet board, need a plan Quote
06-02-2014 , 05:24 PM
Koss, as played, calling the river is just bad imo.

You will call and lose or chop like always. You will call, and he will sheepishly turn over something like AT, KT, Qx, JJ, J9, TT, T9, etc.

I definitely would not fold, though.

Villain is pretty much playing his hand totally face up at this point.

Raise to $100/fold as a bluff.
Bottom two on wet board, need a plan Quote
06-02-2014 , 06:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by eldiesel
I laughed when I read that river card too. This is a rare time I'd calculate the "are we good [ 16 / (115 + 16*2) ] % of the time" thing. It's ~10.5%, the thing is Hero doesn't even beat A9ss. Hero does beat KJss (1 combo) and does chop 89o (4 combos). I usually don't call hoping to chop at best but it's $16 to win $57.

It does look like a blocking bet. Did you consider raising to $75? Not that I'd necessarily do it here, just wondering if you thought about doing it in game.

I probably raise a small portion of the time, fold a small portion of the time, and call most of the time.
Well, I do still beat A9ss. I beat all other 9's other than 89/Q9. Both possible from this villain I suppose.

I didn't consider raising in real time, not sure why not. I knew his bet was weak. I just was too unsure if it's "I have one pair" weak, or "I have a straight but don't like that the board paired" weak. If I have a busted draw here I would have probably raised this river on autopilot, but I guess I thought I had enough showdown value to be good against his range.

I call, he shows KQo.

Obviously I had multiple opportunities to get more money in good and/or win this pot outright against his hand. I just wasn't sure how to range him and how to play against his range. In hindsight I think raising his weak turn blocker is best. I should probably play Qx/AA/KK the same way too. As played I'm still iffy on the river as to whether he folds better often enough to make a bluff work. KQo would be the type of hand I'm targeting, just not sure if he sigh calls it or can find the fold. I don't think I played it too horribly, I just thought it was an interesting hand that could be played a few different ways.
Bottom two on wet board, need a plan Quote
06-02-2014 , 08:22 PM
Yeah, I mean, I raise every street.

Flop for value. Turn for value. River as a bluff.

If you call flop, I think that's not terrible (though I raise), but yes, you need to raise turn, and you really need to raise river.
Bottom two on wet board, need a plan Quote

      
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