1/2

Villain 1 (~$130) buddy of mine is a little bit on the loose side of tag limps in utg+1.

Villain 2 (~$100) black dude who seems snug in utg + 2 limps behind.

Hero HJ ($200) red 10’s raise to $12.

Villain 3 (~$450) OMC to my immediate left flats the 12 and alarm bells go off already. He’s got JJ+ here. Usually OMC flat calls next to act are extremely capped in the high pocket pair/over pair range.

Folds around to Villain 1 and he’s the only other caller. 3 ways to a flop with about $40 in the pot.

Flop is Jc10c4s

Villain 1 donk leads for $20, maybe he’s got AJ or a suited hand and is feeling it out. With the flush draw on board I decide to just start getting the money in now and 3bet to $60. Villain 3 OMC instantly flats and I know I’m dead. Villain 1 tanks for a minute and folds.

Turn Qh pot is about $180 we have $130 left behind, hero???

Bad turn card, I know AK is more likely to be in my range than OMC. OMC loves to limp AK or limp rerasise. I think OMC is capped at like JJ/QQ here maybe 88+, mayyybbbeee 44.

Can we get away from this, what hands in my range would I be check folding or check calling this turn with? I could see KQo being a check fold maybe KQs a check call. I guess if we decided to raise AJ on the flop I could see a check fold here with that hand. I really don’t think 10/10 is a fold here unfortunately.

Thanks for any feedback.

nh; wp. Now c/f.

You can't be serious Garick.

OMC has all the KK/AA in his range and has no AK left after the flop except AKcc. We have a set with 100 bb stacks and no 4-flush or 4-straight on board, and plenty of worse hands that can call (overpairs, draws).

Jam AINEC.

AA or KK usually raise that flop from an OMC. This is AcKc or JJ, most of the time, QQ/KK a bit, and weird things that check back the rest, imo.

He loses 5% equity if we take AKs out of his range. If he has all combos of AA/KK/QQ/JJ we have 55% equity here according to equilab. If we leave AKs in we’re a about a .5% dog. No way he has AKs though.

You think OMC 4 bet raises me all in on that flop? I wish, would have been a slam dunk call, if you have JJ good for you.

FWIW this is an extremely tight passive OMC.

How did the OMC seemingly double his stack leading up to this hand? Did someone pay off his AA?

I think check/folding is super weak here. Just raise higher on the PF and push turn. If he has AK or JJ, good for him. We still have outs against AK. Why can't he have QJ, KQ, KJ etc.?

You haven't posted the results, but I am guessing folks replying are assuming based on your reads that he has a super strong hand here. Just don't be results-oriented.

Wasn’t at the table yet. He’s only played two hands in the past hour. One raise to 5, and option checked at BB. Definitely a tight range. When I got to the table there were a few maniacs that shoved off there last 25bb with jank so I think he doubled up through all that nonsense.

Standard raise when the table is a little tighter for me is $10 after two limps I make it $12. I could go to $15 here but that’s not really that much of a difference is it? Plus we are in mid position so I don’t think going that much bigger will make a difference when OMC is most likely folding 90% or his range and we might just get one of the limpers coming along.

I’ll post results later.

You have a set and half your stack in already. Just put it in. V can easily have KK and AA here. Turn card sucks but whatever, not folding.

I think OMC can flat preflop IP wider than JJ+

When he instacalls flop I don't think he automatically has top set, overpairs are possible, big suited cards for top pair or FD or OESD, or AXs/SC for FD and 98s for OESD. I'd guess he reraises with sets but can see him flatting top set sometimes despite the wet board and MW flop.

Qh on the turn gives him another set, some top pair for one OESD and completes the 98s OESD and the AKcc gutshot. I guess he folds the other AK combos on the flop and may 3bet some preflop so I'm not too worried about AK.

So I think with a large pot and a mixture of draws, hands you beat, hands that beat you but you have outs and a handful of combos that have you crushed you've got to just bet the rest here. If you're set-over-set so be it, you won't always be.

Wow! Surprised Garick recommends X/F.

I suppose if OMC 3bets KK+ preflop and really won't call hero's preflop raise without a big pair or AK then it is difficult to see how hero can still be good...

Regardless, I know I can't fold this in game.

Yeah, I'm just going off OP's reads. I would almost never fold on this board with these stacks/pot size, but given reads... If he's a real OMC and alarm bells went off the moment he called pre, he's not flatting a big overpair on that scary board almost ever. Can't let his aces get cracked!

When he insta-calls flop, I weigh AcKc very heavily. AcQc or KcQc are possible, but less likely, and he probably will check those back OTT.

I’m having such a hard time going with my reads versus the math. Math dictates a jam here, reads dictate a fold, what gives?

If you're totally torn between your gut and your brain here I think I'd GII and see if my gut was right. You'll get a valuable confirmation or refutation of your instincts. It's not like it's a massive amount of money behind so you aren't going to be too badly set back if you lose...

Sorry, I meant raise more on flop and get it in on the turn. PF is totally fine.

he has to have a big enough range here to make this a profitable shove with all the money already in there.

Never trust reads over math, unless you have 50hrs min with V.

Jam AINEC.

Results:

I see the Qh don’t like it, I think about if for 10 secs and sigh. I decide not to go with my gut and I shove. Captain OMC snap calls and I just ask great do you have JJ? He says no I have queens and rolls them over and scoops the pot after the brick river.


I don’t think I played this hand results oriented though and I’m pretty sure I’m ahead often enough to dictate a jam here. Especially since this guy is flat calling QQ on the flop he’s definitely flat calling KK/AA here too.

However, what other hands am I even jamming here? I guess I could have all the sets, J10s, j10 off, AKs, 98s, Ax’s. Maybe AA, KK and QQ. I don’t know if I’d 3 bet my overpairs on the flop when a villain leads half pot. I’d most likely just call them so that could potentially be a leak as I’m capping out some of my range.

Reads make range. Range makes math. With reads that aren't lockdown, we don't exclude as much from a range, but we don't ignore what reads we have.

This is why I think my play is ok. If he can flat QQ on this flop he can still have AA/KK here as well as JJ and we’re 55% against that range.

You just got unlucky.

Do you think he folds QQ if the turn is a brick? Probably not.

Do you think he plays AA/KK differently? Maybe he 3-bets AA but I know plenty of OMC who will flat KK and not put money in until they see an Ace-free flop.

im shoving here because of this, reads aside.

He can absolutely flat AA/KK immediately next to act pre flop. I’ve seen this consistently from a lot of players at the 1/2 level in my area.

I think If the turn is a brick and I jam he would prob tank fold. I’m a nitty tag as it is but this guy is just a super nit.

The real problem I’m facing at the 1/2 level is that I think super polarized play might just be better. I’ve been focusing on making plays where I have all of my hands in my range as opposed to being more polarized.

I think I definitely could have exploitatively folded this hand as I have folded to similar nitty players and loose passive fishes in the past which saved lots of money.