setup -
V1 60+ TAG, been at table roughly 3 hrs, I noted an hour ago that he very aggressively punishes weakness, never shows (I offered a bribe to show twice) $300
V2 21 (says today is his birthday) at table 1.5 hrs, seems solid, a bit more LAG than TAG but mixing it up, $250
Hero - 40s, opened table 8 hrs ago, recently rebought after donking off most of my stack with top set vs SB FH. Am up slightly vs both Vs via big cbets, $220

The hand:
folds to hero
Hero MP - KQ- open raise to $8
folds to V1
V1 btn - calls
SB folds
V2 BB calls

Flop ($25) - A K J

V2 - bets $20
H - pause to range V1, decide likely made sm flush, possible set, unlikely 2p. If I play back he shoves the flush or folds lesser hands he might chase w - Call
V1 - Call (put him on 1010,JJ, or big Aces, possibly Ax10c)

Turn ($85) Q

V2 snap bets $30
H - pause to consider river moves w no club - call
V1 - raise to $100

V2 tanks for a long time, looks up at me and says "I know what you have but he confuses me" goes back in the tank for 2-3 minutes, folds.

Hero ?

Well, you are obviously getting immediate odds to call with NFD and FHD. Even if he's holding a made flush or the Ten of clubs plus a boat blocker, you are still 25% and you are getting better than 3:1. I would call and c/f blanks. Yeah it feels bad to passively call off half your stack and then fold but the guy pretty much always has a T or a baby flush. If you bink a club on the river you can shove and get paid off if he has Tc and some smaller flushes, and making your fullhouse gets paid off every single time.

pot is 245, you have to call 70 more = 3.5 to 1 = 22.2% equity needed to b/e

assuming worst case scenario:

Board: Ac Kc Jc Qh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 75.000% 75.00% 00.00% 33 0.00 { Tc9c }
Hand 1: 25.000% 25.00% 00.00% 11 0.00 { KsQc }


+2.78% EV call.

I am sure most people will say shove, but I go with a call.

If you call it cost you $70 more into a pot of $245. If you assume worst case, you are behind and never win unless you improve to a flush or full house. The leaves you 13 outs (K,K,Q,Q,or a flush) or 28.8% chance roughly. meaning you can expect to win roughly $88 plus the 90 you have behind leaves $178 if you never get river value when hit.

A fold leaves you $162.

A raise allin leaves you 28% chance at a $565 total pot (assuming his fold equity is 0 at this point) or leaves you on average $163.

So call seems smart, fold to an allin if you do not improve. If you do improve jam the river, and since it is low limit even though it seems you will never get a call after the board pairs or a 4 flush hits it is low limit people do not want to fold their made straights and will call hoping for chops all the time.

I think we have to assume that he doesn't have all 9 flush outs + 4 full house outs. I think that you'd be more realistic to assume 11 outs. Which leaves you 11/46 = 23.9% to win. On a call, you have 23.9% * $315(pot) = $90.72 > $70 saved on a fold. So still clearly +EV to at least call the turn raise.

On a shove, I agree that we zero fold equity here. At least it seams like it would be highly unlikely that villain is raising into two opponents on this board and then folding to last $92! So, we have 23.9% * $499(pot on reraise all-in) = $119.26.

So we have 3 options. 1) Fold turn raise, 2) Call turn raise, 3) reraise all-in on turn.

EV Stack remaining:
Option 1) $162
Option 2) $90.72 + $92 = $182.72
Option 3) $119.26

Clearly the worst thing we can do is to jam. Obviously we are assuming 0 FE, and reducing our outs by 2. I find it is best to not delude ourselves into thinking that we have more outs than we realistically have. Still the best option is to simply call the turn.

To maximize value out of the river should we hit will depend on you read of the opponent. Honestly, I think you only get significant value out of hitting your full-house. The 4 to a flush will shut down his ten and most likely any flush lower that the 10c.

thanks for the input and math lesson, I was pretty sure this was a call but wanted your thoughts.

Results: