1/2 Mandalay Bay. Thin Value or Bad River Bet - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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1/2 Mandalay Bay. Thin Value or Bad River Bet

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09-08-2015 , 02:08 PM

kansaisupra

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 679

Hero $360 HJ
Villain SB. Total rec player. Probably a tourist playing for fun. $300.

Hero raises $12 with A

with a limp UTG
SB Calls $12, BB folds, UTG folds. Pot ($28)

Flop J

SB checks, Hero Cbets $20. SB Calls. Pot ($48)

So I this point, I think he has something like QJ, KJ, maybe 1010.

Turn 3

SB checks, Hero bets $40. SB calls. Pot ($128)

River 10

I am a bit worried that the 10 gives him two pair. I am really not worried about KQ Q8.

So on the River, I bet $50 for (thin value?) and Villain check raises $50 more.

Trivial call? or bad river bet?

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09-08-2015 , 02:14 PM

Garick

Oberbiergenießer

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 26,522

Too small OTR, imo. You may have induced. I like a b/f for $75, or a check back if you think that's too thin.

I still fold, though. There is so much pair plus SD in his range, and it all hit 2-pair or the straight. Don't think we're good often enough, especially given the min-raise.

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09-08-2015 , 02:28 PM

wiffle

banned

Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 860

check back river
definitely fold now

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09-09-2015 , 12:17 AM

bodybuilder32

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 1,423

You could have saved $50 on the river. Your hand is really not that good with this board texture. 1-2 Villain never bluffing in this spot. Fold.

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09-09-2015 , 05:17 AM

YGOchamp

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 1,555

You're assigning an incorrect range OTF.
87, 98, T9, sometimes 77/99 + the hands you mentioned.

You're still beating the majority of hands OTT, but by the river its probably too thin. I'd be more inclined to make a good river bet against a thinking player who will think my range is polarized and capable of calling me light as opposed to a rec player.

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09-09-2015 , 07:52 AM

mpethybridge

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 16,997

Quote:

Originally Posted by wiffle

check back river
definitely fold now

Sad but true.

ETA: Not suggesting doing so, but to illustrate just how bad calling the raise is, 3 betting the raise will lose you less money than calling. Absolute bottom of his raising range is like T9, so in theory a 3 bet probably folds him off of that, and JT, whereas calling just loses to everything unless he is wearing a straightjacket, drooling and talking to Satan.

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09-09-2015 , 12:35 PM

kansaisupra

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 679

good points. thanks. I ended up folding.

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09-09-2015 , 05:33 PM

spikeraw22

The Situation

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 8,741

I think Satan might convince him to call with T9 though.

Agreed that range is off. I think I'd bet the river vs. a rec player who could call with worse jx. Depends on how it looked live. Tough to say here. Certainly
Must fold to raise.

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09-09-2015 , 07:57 PM

adam levine

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 1,569

I think it is too thin he has lots of pair plus gunshots in his range that improved otr and not many 1 pair hands are calling on a four straight board.

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