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1/2 live should I fold trips?

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09-27-2013 , 10:31 AM

oldschool_vegas

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 563

Full 9 person table, 1$/2$ no limit live.

I'm dealt 9/9.

UTG raises raises 12$, fold's to me, I call, person after me calls.

Flop is 9, 10, Q. I remember the suits were all different

UTG raise $25, I call, person after me raises $100+ all in.

What do I do?

Does he have j/k?

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09-27-2013 , 12:08 PM

MeleaB

See my Commercial Software thread

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 5,395

So, it's $75 to call into a ~$185 pot, odds of 2.5/1

It's a moot point, but do you think KJ is the only hand he could have here?

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09-27-2013 , 01:28 PM

oldschool_vegas

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 563

Quote:

Originally Posted by MeleaB

So, it's $75 to call into a ~$185 pot, odds of 2.5/1

It's a moot point, but do you think KJ is the only hand he could have here?

No, I think he could have a number of hands. Like any pocket pair from 10-AA. I think i'm playing too passive by folding here.

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09-27-2013 , 02:15 PM

MeleaB

See my Commercial Software thread

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 5,395

Possibly.

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09-27-2013 , 05:53 PM

BlueSpade

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 126

Even if he shows you KJ face up you should still call. You are more worried about a higher set. But this is a trivially obvious giggity call.

The only reason I assume this was posted was because you lost the hand?

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09-27-2013 , 06:02 PM

Havok

adept

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 726

I think your reads on your opponent would play a large part in calling or folding. But, let's say we're read less, then I would lean more to calling due to the pot odds, and potential redraws. So yes, most of the time you should call barring some read. And it sucks if you got coolered by KJ, or got sucked out on by other combos of JX.

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09-27-2013 , 06:11 PM

Havok

adept

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 726

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlueSpade

I'm not sure this is the best advice. Yes, I still think you should call, but let's break it down if Villain turned over KJ before you called. Your only roughly 28% to fill up by the river with two cards to come. So you would need pot odds closer to 3 to 1 to make the call profitable, as opposed to 2 to 1. Why the call is correct is more appropriately due to the fact that villains shoving range contains more hands your ahead of than behind, which is why it's a call.

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09-27-2013 , 06:46 PM

MeleaB

See my Commercial Software thread

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 5,395

Quote:

Originally Posted by Havok

So yes, most of the time you should call barring some read.

I'd be interested in hearing an example of such a read.

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Originally Posted by Havok

Your percentages are incorrect. It's a clear call even if either he shows you KJ or if this magical read you mention above indicates he has exactly KJ.

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09-27-2013 , 08:44 PM

BlueSpade

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 126

Odds for filling up before river.

On Turn: 7/47 = 14.9%

On River: 10/46 = 21.7%

Combined Odds for Turn + River = .149 + .217*(1-.149) = 33.4%

33.4% equates to 1.994:1 or basically 2:1 for all practical purposes. We are betting $75 into $186 or 2.48:1.

So yes, it is an obvious call even if he has KJ and shows it to us! You are only folding if he has exactly TT or QQ. To call or not call here deserves no discussion it is obvious, just wanted to correct the math question.

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09-27-2013 , 09:10 PM

#10

Cloudflips123

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 323

Its -EV to fold a set OTF since you only get them 5% of the time. You just beat too many hands too much of the time.

Sent from my LG-MS690 using 2+2 Forums

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09-27-2013 , 10:20 PM

#11

Sol Reader

The Situation

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 9,380

Tangent: Folding cannot be -EV.

Hand: Snap it.

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