Hey guys I was wondering can you give me some input on a hand I played last night in the casino. The situation is the following.
Very soft table with a few chines gamblers who have are loose\passive in general.
6 players limp for 2$ and i wake up on the small blind with AK of clubs(my stack is 380$sh).
I raise to 12$ and 6 people call me.
pot (84$)
Flop Q T 9
I lead for 35$ big blind calls and chines guy (who called my 12$ pre_flop raise from UTG 360$ stack) raises to 120 everyone else folds to me and I tank shove the BB fold and Chines calls the rest showing QT.
Here I want to idicate that I have no previous history with that man but asuming its a 1/2 live cash game and he is limp/calling a 12$ from utg his range is AT- Ax plus broadway connectors. Hands like QQ,TT,99 will raise preflop.
The hand looks standart to me but I want to know what approach show i use in orther to analyse this situation.
When i put my hand vs his hand i a poker calculator i get 44% of winning on the flop. But when i put my hand in Poker stove AK vs his range of two pairs + straights i get 25% equity(I only assume he is raising me there with two pairs and straights). Does that mean that I should have folded ? or called the raise and evaluated on the turn ?
Thanks in advance.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

54,450 trials (Exhaustive)

board: QT9

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AcKc	42.61%	23,161	81
QT,Q9,T9,KJ,J8	57.39%	31,208	81

you miscalculated somewhere

anyways, i don´t think thats his whole raising range, you still got some fold equity, and if he does raise some draws sometimes, your equity gets better. also good for balancing reasons, albeit a minor concern on lowstakes, but not neglectable, to have some draws in your flop b/3betshove range as well.
wp.

Hmmm, with Equilab I get your equity against all 2 pairs and str8s at 42-43%, which is what I expected, so I think you did something wrong when entering V's range.

Make it more PF. At many 1/2 tables $12 is a typical opening raise. After 6 limpers and from the SB you should be making this closer to $20, with some variability depending on the table.

As for postflop, shoving is the only way to go even though I'm not thrilled about it. I think your fold equity is probably very very low but still possible to get a fold and your equity when called is good enough for what's in the pot

Hi, welcome to the forum. I suggest reading the threads that are at the top of the forum page first.

In that, you'll see we discourage posting results for about 24 hours when making a thread. The reason is that you'll get much better answers when people don't see what happened.

My pokerstove also shows 42%. I'm assuming you just plugged in some wrong numbers.

Thanks you for the advise guys. I thing you are right about my betsizing PF being too small (blankoblanco). A 20$ bet will make the pot bigger (assuming 6 people call) 120$ which will make my decision on the flop easier. I will read those Threads (venice10)

absolutely disagree about preflop advice, you don't want to raise huge and make Ax/Kx or small suited hands fold preflop. $12 is perfect

I would absolutely check the flop, betting $35 is likely never going to take down the pot right now, and with as many outs as you have, you desperately want to realize your equity and THEN value bet. With as connected as this board is, I would check/call not check/raise the flop.

$12 oop after 6 limpers is not perfect, at all. It is clearly too small. There's a reason he got called by 6 players

Depends on the standard opening size for the table, but I would make it a little more in this spot. Live players tagged as 'Loose Passive' and in general I am never worried about losing dominated hands preflop in live poker. Also not really banking on much fold equity, but hey

This will help you out in the future. If a Villain ships $120 in on the flop you have zero fold equity. Big draws like this need some fold equity to end up profitable.

You are flipping at best vs his perceived range. I would lay it down.

Even with 0 FE, shoving is +EV compared to folding.

I raise to $20 pre flop minimum. Too small of a raise over limpers and you do nothing more than bloat a pot 6 ways. Even when you hit the flop, or a monster draw like this one, you're behind.

$360 effective Stack

$74 Preflop
$70 ($35 x 2)

$144 in pot. The Villain has $313 behind.


Without Fold Equity, Hero is getting 2.17 to 1 or 46% equity.

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: QdTc9c
Equity Win Tie
MP2 58.76% 58.69% 0.06%
{ QQ, TT-99, KJs, QTs-Q9s, J8s, T9s, KJo, QTo-Q9o, J8o, T9o }

SB 41.24% 41.18% 0.06% { AcKc }

Thank you Jambre.

I was incorrect, this is profitable even with zero fold equity.

The hand is not "standard." The play of the hand is heavily board dependent. E.g. Flop T 7 2 plays completely different.

It also depends a great deal on stack sizes, not that 120bb v. 130bb makes a difference, but 100bb v. 300bb does.

Another, less important variable, is the fact that you have the king of clubs. In many cases, the best line will be different with AK than with AJ.

Do you think that if I raise 20$ pre and on the flop I c/c a bet would be a better play overall in a passive game like that? In that way i reduce the variance, I avoid playing for 350bb flip with a 40-44% equity.

Just my 2 bits:

I hate to shove knowing I'm behind and knowing I have no fold equity. It may be marginally +EV but I don't care. I HATE putting in my stack knowing I am getting called by a better hand.

I have gotten to the point where I play very cautiously OOP. None of us are mind readers and none of us can see through cards. When I bet, I like to do it with some grasp of where I stand.

In this case, although it seems like it might be a flop I might bet OOP with so many behind, there is a counter-argument. Unless they're all colluding, it seems likely that someone else will bet. So in this case, by checking, we are likely getting information rather than giving it. The flop just came off and no one really knows anything about where the others are at. Getting to see what happens if we don't bet seems like a bargain.